The presidential election in the United States will be held on November 5. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that Kamala Harris' lead over Donald Trump has dropped to one percentage point. Meanwhile, a CNN poll shows Harris winning early voting in Arizona and Trump winning Nevada.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday shows Democrat Kamala Harris' lead over Republican Donald Trump in the US presidential race has narrowed to 44 per cent. up to 43 percent
The Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 1,150 US adults nationwide, including 975 registered voters. The survey lasted for three days and ended on Sunday.
An earlier Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in mid-October showed the vice president ahead of Trump by two points. As noted, Harris' lead has been steadily narrowing since late September. The statistical margin of error is three percent.
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A recent poll found that respondents believe Trump has a better view of the economy, unemployment and jobs than Harris (47% to 37%). The Republican candidate dominated economic issues throughout the campaign.
In addition, about 48 percent of voters said that the former president's views on immigration, including the mass deportation of immigrants in the US illegally, are more accurate. Only 33 percent of voters agree with Harris's point of view on this issue.
According to Reuters, Harris' narrow lead over the former president may not be enough to win the election, even if it lasts until November 5. The results of the vote will be decisive in seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
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The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that about 89 percent of Democrats and 93 percent of Republicans have declared their participation in the election. This shows that the number of potential voters is higher than four years ago. According to estimates by the US Census Bureau and the Pew Research Center, two-thirds of US adults voted in the 2020 election, the highest turnout in more than a century.
Among respondents most likely to vote, Harris also had a one-point lead over Trump (47% to 46%).
Beyoncé performed at the Kamala Harris rally. “I am here as a mother” Arleta Zalewska/Fakty TVN
CNN: Harris wins Arizona, Trump wins Nevada
Less than a week before the US election, CNN also released a poll. According to the study, Kamala Harris will win the early voting in Arizona and Trump will win in Nevada. It is expected that the final result of the elections in the western states will be the same.
In Arizona, 53 percent voted for Harris, according to a poll covering two desert states. voters who have already voted and in favor of Trump – 44 percent. In Nevada, the situation is the opposite, 52-46 percent. for Trump. The survey shows that more than half of voters (55%) voted in Arizona and in Nevada – 42%.
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CNN analyzes that the final results in these states will be close to a tie: in Arizona Harris will win 48-47, while in Nevada Trump will win by the same margin. However, both results are within statistical error. At the same time, a CNN study shows that the Democratic candidates won the Senate elections by a decisive 9 points. percentage
A similar picture was painted by a University of Arizona poll released Monday, which found Harris with a one-point lead there. This is despite the fact that out of 1,600,000 voters who voted there, 678,000 were Republicans, 550,000 were Democrats and 389,000 were unaffiliated.
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But the declared party affiliation does not mean voting for this party. Harris' victory in Arizona and 11 electoral votes puts him much closer to winning the election, as it is one of the key states where Trump had the best chance. Nevada, with six electoral votes, voted for Biden in 2020, the Republican candidate by a small margin.
In 2020, Joe Biden won Arizona by less than 0.2 points. percent, i.e. 10,000 votes, and he was the first Democrat to win the presidential election there after Bill Clinton.
When analyzing the polls, we must also remember the nature of the American electoral system, according to which getting the most votes across the country does not equal winning the election. US presidential elections are indirect, with electors in each state officially voting for the electors of the Democratic Party, Republican Party, or another candidate. There are 538 in total – selected from each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. California has the most (54), Texas (40 voters), Florida (30) and New York (28). To win the election, you need to support 270 of them.
This system means that the results of presidential elections are mostly determined by votes in the so-called swing states, where sometimes the Republican candidate and sometimes the Democratic candidate win the election. This year, the following are considered key to win: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Main photo source: PAP/EPA/LON HORWEDEL
