AFP
Indian migrants share water despite the intense heat after leaving Mexico to enter the United States in June.
In October, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) sent home a chartered flight carrying Indian nationals, marking a growing trend of deportations to India.
This was no ordinary flight: it was one of several large-scale “evacuation flights” carried out this year, each typically carrying more than 100 passengers. These were groups of Indian migrants who “had not established a legal basis to remain in the United States.”
The latest flight carrying adult men and women was headed to Punjab, near where many of the deportees came from, according to U.S. officials. No precise breakdown of hometowns of origin was provided.
During the US fiscal year 2024 that ended in September, more than 1,000 Indian nationals were repatriated by charter and commercial flights, according to Royce Bernstein Murray, assistant secretary at the US Department of Homeland Security.
“This is part of a steady increase in expulsions of Indian nationals from the United States in recent years, which is consistent with a general increase in encounters we have seen with Indian nationals in recent years as well,” Ms. Murray said. a press conference. (The encounters refer to cases where non-citizens are stopped by U.S. authorities while trying to cross the country's borders with Mexico or Canada.)
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Indian family seeking asylum in the United States rests on the US border with Mexico
As the United States accelerates repatriations of Indian nationals, concerns are growing about the impact of President-elect Donald Trump's immigration policies on them. Trump has already promised the largest expulsion of migrants in history.
Since October 2020, US Customs and Border Protection (CPB) authorities have arrested nearly 170,000 Indian migrants attempting to cross the northern and southern land borders without authorization.
“Although lower than the numbers in Latin America and the Caribbean, Indian nationals represent the largest group of migrants from outside the Western Hemisphere encountered by the CPB over the past four years,” say Gil Guerra and Sneha Puri, immigration analysts at the Niskanen Center. a think tank based in Washington.
In 2022, there were approximately 725,000 undocumented Indian immigrants in the United States, making them the third largest group after those in Mexico and El Salvador, according to new data from the Pew Research Center. Illegal immigrants make up a total of 3% of the total U.S. population and 22% of the foreign-born population.
Looking at the data, Mr. Guerra and Ms. Puri identified notable trends in the increase in the number of Indians attempting to cross the border illegally.
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Indian immigrants walk along border wall to surrender to US Border Patrol agents
On the one hand, migrants do not come from the lowest economic strata. But they cannot obtain tourist or student visas for the United States, often due to lower education levels or English proficiency.
Instead, they rely on agencies charging up to $100,000 (£79,000), sometimes taking long and difficult routes designed to evade border controls. To afford it, many sell their farms or take out loans. Unsurprisingly, US immigration court data reveals in 2024 that the majority of Indian migrants were men, aged 18 to 34.
Second, Canada, on the northern border, has become a more accessible point of entry for Indians, with a visitor visa processing time of 76 days (compared to up to a year for a US visa in India ).
The Swanton sector – which covers the states of Vermont and the counties of New York and New Hampshire – has seen a sudden increase in the number of encounters with Indian nationals since the start of this year, peaking at 2,715 in June, they said. discovered the researchers.
Previously, most irregular Indian migrants entered the Americas through the busier southern border with Mexico, via El Salvador or Nicaragua, both of which facilitated migration. Until November last year, Indian nationals enjoyed visa-free travel to El Salvador.
AFP
Indian immigrants enter the United States after crossing the US-Mexico border in 2023
“The border between the United States and Canada is also longer and less patrolled than the border between the United States and Mexico. And while it's not necessarily safer, criminal groups are not as prevalent there as along the route from South and Central America,” Mr. Guerra and Ms. Puri say.
Third, much of the migration appears to be coming from India's predominantly Sikh state of Punjab and neighboring Haryana, which has traditionally seen people migrate abroad. The other source of origin is Gujarat, the home state of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Punjab, which hosts a large share of irregular Indian migrants, faces economic challenges, including high unemployment, agricultural difficulties and a looming drug crisis.
Migration has also been common among Punjabis for a long time, with rural youth always keen to go abroad.
A recent study by Navjot Kaur, Gaganpreet Kaur and Lavjit Kaur of 120 respondents in Punjab found that 56% of them had migrated between the ages of 18 and 28, often after secondary education. Many financed their move through non-institutional loans and then sent remittances to their families.
There was then a rise in tensions over the separatist Khalistan movement, which seeks to establish an independent homeland for Sikhs. “This has caused some Sikhs in India to fear being unfairly targeted by authorities or politicians. These fears can also provide a credible basis for allegations of persecution that allow them to seek asylum, whether founded or not,” says Ms Puri.
The Patel family from Gujarat froze to death just 12 meters from the Canadian border while trying to enter the United States in 2022.
But it is difficult to determine exactly what triggers the migration.
“While motivations vary, economic opportunity remains the primary driver, reinforced by social media and the sense of pride in having family members ‘settled’ in the United States,” says Ms. Puri.
Fourth, researchers found a change in the family demographics of Indian nationals at the borders.
More and more families are trying to cross the border. In 2021, the majority of single adults were detained at both borders. Today, family units represent 16 to 18% of detentions at both borders.
This has sometimes led to tragic consequences. In January 2022, an Indian family of four – part of a group of 11 from Gujarat – froze to death just 40 feet from the Canadian border while trying to enter the United States.
Pablo Bose, a specialist in migration and urban studies at the University of Vermont, says Indians are trying to enter the United States in greater numbers because of more economic opportunities and “more possibilities to enter in the informal economies of American cities,” particularly in large American cities. those like New York or Boston.
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Customs and Border Patrol agents load migrants into a vehicle after groups of migrants entered the United States from Mexico in June.
“From everything I know and interviews I have conducted, most Indians do not stay in more rural areas like Vermont or upstate New York, but instead head to the cities as soon as they can,” Bose told the BBC. There, he says, they mainly access informal jobs like domestic work and restaurant work.
Things may soon become more difficult. Tom Homan, a former immigration official who will be in charge of the country's borders after Trump's inauguration in January, said the northern border with Canada is a priority because illegal immigration in the region constitutes a ” huge national security problem.
What will happen next is unclear. “It remains to be seen whether Canada would impose similar policies to prevent people from migrating to the United States from its borders. If this happens, we can expect a reduction in detentions of Indian nationals at the border,” says Ms Puri.
Either way, the dreams that drive thousands of desperate Indians to seek a better life in the United States are unlikely to fade, even as the road ahead becomes more perilous.
