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Canadian tourists, like those participating in an exercise class, are essential to Cuba's tourism sector.
As winter nights approach North America, Canadian “snowbirds” – citizens who flee freezing temperatures each year for sunnier climes – plan their annual trips to Florida or the Caribbean.
Traditionally, Cuba has been extremely popular with Canadians, drawn to the pristine white sands of beach resorts like Varadero.
They fill the void left by Americans wary of travel restrictions imposed on them by the continuing U.S. economic embargo on the Caribbean's largest island.
Figures show nearly a million Canadian tourists visited Cuba last year, the top country of origin for visitors by far.
So the recent decision by Canadian tour operator Sunwings Vacations Group – one of Cuba's major travel partners – to remove 26 hotels from its Cuban portfolio is a major blow to the island's struggling tourism industry.
Sunwings made the decision after Cuba suffered a four-day nationwide power outage in late October, caused by breakdowns in the country's aging energy infrastructure.
That was followed by another national power outage last month, when Hurricane Rafael passed through the island, worsening an already acute power crisis.
A third nationwide power outage then occurred on Wednesday, December 4, after Cuba's largest power plant failed.
“Cuba has seen some volatility over the past few weeks and that could shake consumer confidence,” Samantha Taylor, Sunwings' chief marketing officer, told travel website Pax News last month.
“There are amazing places to go in Cuba,” she said, keen to emphasize that the company is not pulling out of Cuba completely. “But we also recognize that if customers are a little uncomfortable, we need to give them options.”
Specifically, it was to compile a list of what they call “hidden gems” – alternative vacation destinations in the Dominican Republic, Bahamas and Colombia.
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Cuba was hit hard by storms and rain during this year's hurricane season.
The implications for Cuba are clear.
With tourism now the main economic driver of the island and the main source of foreign exchange earnings after remittances, the fact that a major tour operator directs its customers to the beaches of other countries due to energy infrastructure in ruin is a real concern.
“Our message to Canadians is that tourism is one of the priorities of the economy,” Lessner Gómez, director of the Cuban Tourism Authority in Toronto, said in a statement. “The Ministry of Tourism is preparing for the winter season to offer better services, uninterrupted supply, better airport experience and more new car rentals.”
As Cuba's tourism agency attempts to allay fears about the extent of the power outages, no one can deny that it has been an extremely difficult few months on the island. Hurricane Rafael is just the latest storm to hit Cuba during a frenzied Atlantic hurricane season, in which more powerful and frequent storms are the new normal.
Of course, bad weather is a problem in the Caribbean. But for Cuba, other complications are at play.
The re-election of Donald Trump to the White House and his choice as Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, risks making the lives of Cubans even more complicated than it already is.
“This is probably the most difficult moment of the Cuban revolution,” says former Cuban diplomat Jesús Arboleya. “And unfortunately, I don't see anything on the horizon that allows for an optimistic view of the future of U.S.-Cuban relations.
“Donald Trump has entrusted American policy towards Cuba to sectors of the Cuban-American right which, since their origins, have essentially lived off their anti-Castro policy. »
Mr. Arboleya adds that Marco Rubio, currently a U.S. senator for Florida, is the leading voice among them. He is a Cuban-American who has long opposed the communist government in Havana.
His parents were Cubans who emigrated to the United States in 1956, three years before Fidel Castro took power, but his grandfather fled the Castro-led turn to communism on the island.
“People are horrified at the idea of another Donald Trump presidency. This creates real problems,” echoes Cuban political commentator and editor-in-chief of Temas magazine, Rafael Hernández.
Current U.S. policy toward Cuba is “somewhat schizophrenic,” he says.
“On the one hand, the State Department is facilitating support for the private sector and (pushing for) economic changes in Cuba. But on the other hand, Congress and the Senate seem to be freezing any progress on these reforms.”
Jesus Arboleya
Former diplomat Jesús Arboleya says the Cuban Revolution is now facing its 'most difficult moment'
Future Secretary of State Rubio, however, is expected to unite U.S. policy in Cuba around a single idea: maximum pressure on the island by strengthening already harsh sanctions.
Cubans fear it could mean the suspension of commercial flights to Cuba, or even the closure of the U.S. embassy in Havana, which was officially reopened in 2015 after decades of frosty relations.
If implemented, such measures would be deliberately designed to further harm Cuba's struggling tourist trade, with the aim being to hit the communist-led nation when it is down. The number of tourists to Cuba has almost halved since the peak of nearly five million visitors during the Obama-era détente with Cuba.
Between 2015 and 2017, American visitors flocked to the island under looser travel restrictions, eager to experience a country that had long been denied them. Around the same time, the Cuban government embarked on a major hotel construction spree, confident that demand would remain strong over the next decade.
However, Cuban tourism suffered a double whammy, from which it has not fully recovered. First, the Trump administration backed away from President Obama's engagement policies, then the Covid-19 pandemic sent the industry into tailspin.
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Marco Rubio, Trump's pick for secretary of state, is a harsh critic of the Cuban regime
With many of these hotels now seeing occupancy rates well below initial forecasts and having real difficulty delivering the advertised five-star guest experience amid power outages and shortages, some are questioning the strategy of putting as many eggs in the tourism basket in the first half. place.
“Why has Cuba invested 38% (of government funds) on average over the last decade in hotels and international tourism-related infrastructure, but only 8-9% in energy infrastructure? » asks economist Ricardo Torres of the American University in Washington DC. “That doesn’t make sense. Hotels run on electricity.
Despite all the current challenges, most visitors agree that Cuba remains a unique travel experience. The clichés – classic cars, cigars and mojitos – still appeal to many, while others prefer to travel the island soaking up its history, culture and music.
Yet, as tour operator Sunwings' decision to step back shows, some tourists find it hard to appreciate Cuba in the midst of an energy crisis, especially one about to be exacerbated by an administration — and a secretary of state — hostile to Washington.
