CNN Turkey reported on December 9 that Russia has asked Turkey to help withdraw its military contingent from Syria.
– Russia definitely lost because it invested in Syria. These are loans and support to the al-Assad regime. It is unclear whether they will lose their base. They are currently evacuated and will probably try to renegotiate the terms and return, Professor Radosław Fiedler, head of the Department of Non-European Politics at Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań, said in an interview with Interia.
But if it fails, Russia will lose more than its influence in Syria. The territory controlled by Bashar al-Assad was of critical technical and political importance to Russia's interests in Africa.
Sahel. Civil war and hidden wealth
Simply put, Russia has stepped up its activities in the Sahel region (the belt south of the Sahara) in recent years. It wants to exploit the natural resources of countries there and avoid global sanctions.
For this scenario to succeed, the Kremlin must have a favorable government in the Sahel region. Military regimes in local countries can therefore rely on the support of the Afrika Korps, a mercenary group controlled by Moscow on behalf of the Wagner Group. It's a political dimension.
The technical one concerns an air bridge between Russia and the Sahel. Russia's basic Il-76 transport aircraft has a range of less than 5,000 kilometers when fully loaded. It is not enough to safely sail from Russia to any point in Central Africa.
Therefore, Russian aircraft, having lost a convenient “stopping place” in Syria, need a new base on the way to Africa.
End of military presence in Africa. France “exchanges” with Russia
Before analyzing what President Vladimir Putin can do, it is worth pointing out what he needs. The Sahel is rich in mineral deposits ranging from gold to uranium. A decade ago, European companies dominated the region, supported by a largely French military presence pursuing traditional interests in Africa dating back to colonial times.
In 2014, Paris launched Operation Barkhane, a military intervention in the region aimed at preventing the emergence of Islamic and terrorist organizations. By 2022, the goal was partially achieved, including eliminating one of al-Qaeda's key leaders. Nevertheless, despite deploying thousands of soldiers and around 1 billion euros, France still loses control of the region.
2022 – Mali's military government orders French nationals to leave the country. In February 2023, Paris will withdraw from Burkina Faso. In July of the same year, a coup d'état occurred in Niger. The military will take over. Events have further accelerated over the past month. At the end of November 2024, Chad and Senegal announced the end of their military agreement with France. In early December, Niger's military regime took control of France's uranium mines, as announced by the Orano Energy Company.
Map of the Sahel and military presence. The red dots indicate where the French troops retreated. Paris will also lose Blue Points in Senegal and Chad, according to recent announcements / Nalini Lepetit-Chella, Paz Pizarro, Sabrina Blanchard
At the same time, Russia appears in all these countries and signs economic and military agreements with new authorities. – France will go to African countries if it wants to. But I don't want to do that because it's expensive. It was calculated to be too expensive and too risky. Professor Fiedler comments that Russia is stepping into this vacuum.
– France began looking for business elsewhere, in Armenia and Central Asia. Very active in the former Soviet Union. They are exchanging roles with Russia – added Intera's interlocutor.
As things stand, Moscow has an open path to developing the Sahel. You just need a stable connection to your area. So far, this role has been performed by Syria's Hmayim Air Base. Since it is impossible to use it, the Kremlin is forced to implement Plan B, at least for now. The American Institute for the Study of War suggests two possibilities.
Russia is paying for the war. both sides of the conflict
Option number one is Sudan. The Russians tried to build a base there in 2017, but the project was never completed due to the country's political instability. Since April 2023, the country has been suffering from internal conflict between the military and rebel groups.
Sudan is important to Russia because of its gold deposits. As ISW points out, the Afrika Korps is responsible for illegally smuggling raw materials to Russia, which supplies it with foreign currency. According to CNN information in July 2022, the amount of Russian gold smuggling from Sudan is $13 billion annually.
In addition to gold, Sudan could be a haven for transporters. The problem is that the country remains politically unstable. Moscow is trying to bring the two sides together. It supports the military and fulfills arms contracts. At the same time, the Afrika Korps supplies supplies to the rebel forces. President Putin is awaiting developments regarding Sudan. However, the situation has changed with the collapse of the Syrian regime, meaning it can no longer wait.
Oil, airports, and old generals. President Vladimir Putin's plan
The second option on the table is Libya. – This is also not easy because there is an internal conflict in Libya. Moreover, Russia's continued presence requires investment, Fiedler noted, adding that it is a risky investment. Just as the costly operation to keep al-Assad in power failed.
Libya has been in a state of political instability since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi's regime in 2011. The country is ruled by the internationally recognized Government of National Accord and a faction called the pro-Russian Libyan National Army, led by 81-year-old General Khalifa Haftar.
In addition to a military presence, the Russian government expects to participate in Libyan oil extraction, which could lead to disruption of gas supplies to Europe.
Russian transport aircraft Il-76/Suleiman Ersin/Anadolu Agency
Furthermore, recent intelligence indicates that Russia has stepped up its activities in the North African country in recent months. In 2024, it expanded its air presence to three air bases under Haftar's control – the Daily Telegraph reported in December, citing satellite images from Maxar. In addition to transport aircraft, Su-25 fighters and bombers are also on display. Moscow also planned to renovate its runway.
– Russia is not suddenly building something. It's an ongoing process. Professor Fiedler said they had certainly anticipated a certain scenario, pointing to recent events in Syria.
– It's not that they were completely blind and deaf, – added the interlocutor. – We must remember that the agreement with Syria was on very good terms. The Soviet Union provided Assad with billions of dollars in loans. Russia continued this, the professor explains, canceling some of its debt in exchange for an exclusive military presence.
He emphasizes that continued cooperation with Libya will require Russia to make significant investments in its economy, and it is unclear to what extent the Kremlin will be able to implement such policies. – Russia's problem is that Russia is deeply involved in Ukraine, and that is Russia's main focus. This makes it impossible to fully project power in Africa, which relies not only on military presence but also, above all, on investment, Fiedler explains.
Choosing Libya as a new partner and a kind of “gateway” to the Sahel would be another advantage for Russia. After the fall of al-Assad, Moscow lost not only its air base but also its naval base in Tartus, Syria. Creating a new naval base in Libya would allow Russia to maintain its influence in the Mediterranean.
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