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Last year, India overtook China to become the world's most populous country.
Last year, India overtook China to become the world's most populous country, according to UN estimates.
With nearly 1.45 billion people today, you'd think the country would be quiet about having more children. But guess what? The chatter suddenly started again.
Leaders of two southern states – Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu – have recently made the case for more children.
Andhra Pradesh is considering offering incentives, citing low fertility rates and an aging population. The state has also abandoned its “two-child policy” for local elections, and reports indicate that neighboring Telangana may soon do the same. Neighboring Tamil Nadu is also making similar, more exaggerated noises.
India's fertility rate has declined significantly, from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to two births per woman today.
Fertility rates have fallen below the replacement level of two births per woman in 17 of 29 states and territories. (A replacement level is a level at which new births are sufficient to maintain a stable population.)
India's five southern states are leading the country's demographic transition, reaching replacement fertility levels well ahead of others. Kerala reached this milestone in 1988, Tamil Nadu in 1993 and the rest in the mid-2000s.
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India's fertility rate has declined significantly in recent decades
Today, the five southern states have a total fertility rate below 1.6, with Karnataka at 1.6 and Tamil Nadu at 1.4. In other words, fertility rates in these states are the same as or lower than those in many European countries.
But these states fear that India's changing demographics, with varying population shares across states, will have a significant impact on electoral representation and the judicious distribution of parliamentary seats and federal revenues.
“They fear being penalized for their effective population control policies, even though they perform better economically and contribute significantly to federal revenues,” said Srinivas Goli, a professor of demography at the International Institute of Population Sciences, at the BBC.
Southern states are also grappling with another major concern as India prepares for its first delimitation of electoral seats in 2026 – the first since 1976.
This exercise will redraw electoral boundaries to reflect population changes, which will likely reduce parliamentary seats in economically prosperous southern states. Because federal revenues are allocated based on state populations, many fear it will worsen their financial woes and limit policymaking freedom.
Demographers KS James and Shubhra Kriti predict that more populous northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar could gain more seats through delimitation, while southern states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh could suffer losses, further changing political representation.
Many, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, have suggested that changes to budget shares and the allocation of parliamentary seats will not be rushed through.
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An elephant with the family planning symbol in an Indian village in the 1970s
“As a demographer, I don't think states should be overly concerned about these issues. They can be resolved through constructive negotiations between the federal and state governments,” says Mr. Goli. “My concern lies elsewhere.”
The main challenge, demographers say, is India's rapid aging caused by falling fertility rates. While countries like France and Sweden took 120 and 80 years respectively to double the aging of their populations, from 7 to 14%, India is expected to reach this milestone in just 28 years, estimates Mr. Goli.
This accelerated aging is linked to India's unique success in reducing fertility. In most countries, improving living standards, education and urbanization naturally decrease fertility as child survival improves.
But in India, fertility rates fell rapidly despite modest socioeconomic progress, thanks to aggressive family welfare programs that encouraged small families through targets, incentives and disincentives.
The unintended consequence? Take Andhra Pradesh, for example. Its fertility rate is 1.5, comparable to that of Sweden, but its per capita income is 28 times lower, explains Mr. Goli. With growing debt and limited resources, can states like these support higher pensions or Social Security for a rapidly aging population?
Consider this. More than 40% of older Indians (60 and above) belong to the poorest wealth quintile – the poorest 20% of the population in terms of wealth distribution, according to the Fund's latest Aging in India report. United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).
In other words, says Mr. Goli, “India is getting old before it gets rich.”
Fewer children also means an increase in the elderly dependency ratio, leaving fewer people to care for a growing elderly population. Demographers warn that Indian health care, community centers and nursing homes are unprepared for this change.
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India's rapid aging is driven by falling fertility rates
Urbanization, migration and changing labor markets are further eroding traditional family support – India's strong point – leaving behind larger numbers of older people.
While migration from more populous states to less populous states can narrow the working age gap, it also raises anti-migration concerns. “Massive investments in prevention, palliative care and social infrastructure are urgently needed to care for older people,” says Mr Goli.
As if the concerns of southern states were not enough, earlier this month the head of the Hindu nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (National Volunteer Organisation), the ideological backbone of Mr Modi's BJP, urged couples to have at least three children to ensure their safety. The Future of India. “According to population science, when growth falls below 2.1, a society perishes on its own. No one destroys it,” Mohan Bhagwat was quoted as saying at a recent meeting.
While Mr. Bhagwat's concerns may have some basis, they are not entirely accurate, demographers say. Tim Dyson, a demographer at the London School of Economics, told the BBC that after a decade or two, continuing “very low fertility levels will lead to rapid population decline.”
A fertility rate of 1.8 births per woman results in a slow and manageable population decline. But a rate of 1.6 or lower could trigger a “rapid and unmanageable population decline.”
Arun Chandra Bose
A school in Kerala with few students – the state reached replacement fertility in 1988
“Fewer people will enter the reproductive age – and the prime working age – which will be disastrous socially, politically and economically. This is a demographic process and it is extremely difficult to reverse,” Mr Dyson said.
This is already happening in some countries.
In May, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared the country's record birth rate a “national emergency” and announced plans to create a dedicated ministry. Greece's fertility rate has fallen to 1.3, half of what it was in 1950, prompting warnings from Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis of an “existential” threat to the population.
But demographers say there is no point in encouraging people to have more children. “Given societal changes, including the significant reduction in gender disparity as women's lives have become increasingly similar to those of men, this trend is unlikely to be reversed,” says Mr Dyson .
For Indian states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, grappling with a declining workforce, the key question is: who will step in to fill the void? Developed countries, unable to reverse fertility decline, are focusing on healthy and active aging, extending working lives by five to seven years and improving the productivity of older populations.
Demographers say India will need to significantly raise retirement age and policies must prioritize increasing healthy years through better health screenings and social security strengthened to ensure an active and productive older population – a potential “cash dividend”.
India also needs to better harness its demographic dividend – economic growth that occurs when a country has a large working-age population. Mr Goli believes there is a window of opportunity until 2047 to stimulate the economy, create jobs for the working age population and allocate resources to the elderly. “We only collect 15 to 20% of the dividend. We can do much better,” he says.
