In the next six months, we can forget about cheaper loans. The forecasts of the National Bank of Poland and the analyzes of economists leave no doubt that we are in a year of economic growth, further wage growth, as well as the risk of inflation, which – as the NBP emphasizes – prevents the possibility of money growth. lower interest rates. The latest December data already shows a clear decline in interest rates on housing loans.
Those who are waiting for an attractive loan interest rate should be patient – we will soon pay less for the loan.
– Taking into account the level of interest, we currently have some of the most expensive mortgage loans in the entire European Union, – notes Dr. Tomasz Kopiszianski, economist at WSB Merito.
In December, 26,000 people applied for housing loans. Compared to 2023, this represents a year-over-year decline of about 44 percent. – You should honestly look at the fact that with such high interest rates month after month the space for new loans is limited, because, unfortunately, new borrowers have problems in proving their creditworthiness, which is a certain obstacle, – explains Tomasz Kopisyansky.
Adam Glapinski, the head of the National Bank of Poland, said at the conference on January 17: – There is no place to change the monetary and credit policy here. Inflation rises, then falls, then rises again.
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When can we expect interest rate cuts?
The Monetary Policy Council has kept the interest rate at the same level of 5.75 percent for more than a year. – If we return the housing loan, we will remain the same amount that we have been paying until now. If we look for money in the market and we are an element related to this business ecosystem, then this money in the market is still more expensive for us and more expensive than in Europe – explains Dr. Bartlomy Gabryus from the University of Economics of Sh. Katowice.
Inflation and interest rates in PolandPAP/Mateusz Krymski
Lower interest rates will be a positive news, especially for people who have a mortgage and for those who want to apply for a loan.
Calculations show that taking into account one percentage point reduction in interest, our credit capacity increases from PLN 500,000 to PLN 550,000. If we already have such a loan, the payment can be even less than 300 PLN per month, but we still have to wait.
– The months of July and September are the periods when we can expect a decrease in the interest rate, – predicts the professor. Candidate of sciences. Marcin Kalinowski from WSB Merito University in Gdansk.
Inflation and equalization of wages. Economists point to negative effects of minimum wage increase Stefania Kulik/Fakti po Poludniu TVN24
A period of increasing uncertainty
The inflation rate is still not at the level expected by the National Bank of Poland. December’s reading of 4.7 percent was lower than expected, but still well above the inflation target of 2.5 percent.
– The monetary and credit policy council will focus on economic development and inflation during this period. So it also depends a little on the government’s decision on how the electricity prices will be shaped, for example, because the electricity prices will be frozen until the middle of the year. We will see what happens in the second half of the year, – says Marcin Kalinovsky.
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This is how the Monetary Policy Council justifies its decisions, according to which the Polish economy is entering a period of increased inflation uncertainty. This is primarily due to the price of electricity. Further decisions of the Council depend on their further development.
– The National Bank of Poland has developed a scenario of what inflation will be like after the liberalization of electricity prices, and this indicates the risk of an increase of 1.3 percentage points, which is very important. Thomas Kopishyansky notes that any reduction in the interest rate can further increase this inflation.
Glapinski: the forecasts do not indicate an inevitable reduction in inflation to the target
“The main factor that drives prices”
Forecasts indicate that the rate of inflation in the first and second quarters of this year will be more than 5 percent. In the third quarter, price dynamics will decrease slightly, but may increase again later. “Unfortunately, all this makes doing business and everyday activities in Poland more expensive than cheaper, for example compared to Europe,” says Dr. Bartolomiej Gabryus.
Inflation in Poland and the European Union PAP/Michał Czernek
As the costs of doing business increase, it is natural that they will be passed on, at least in part, to customers.
– It is not good news that we are waiting for inflation to decrease gradually. As we all know, the price of services increases very quickly. The dynamics of service prices in December was 6.6 percentage points. This is because there is still a doubling of wages. This is the main element that drives prices – said Adam Glapinski on January 17.
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For example, the increase in the minimum wage in January means employers’ costs are 450 PLN higher for each employee, and the wage increase should be maintained this year.
– Economic growth means we will earn more than in 2024. And it is estimated that the average salary will increase by about eight percent. If the inflation rate is 4.5%, it means that we can get a little more money, says Marcin Kalinovsky.
But not necessarily for a new home.
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