Laura Bicker
Chinese correspondent
Reuters
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in 2019
If China is angry with the United States for imposing an additional 10% price on all Chinese products, it does a good job to hide it.
Canada and Mexico have promised to retaliate and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his country “would not back up” when he announced a 25% levy on more than $ 100 billion (81 billion pounds sterling) of American products.
US President Donald Trump then agreed to take a temporarily Tarrifs break on goods imported from the two countries after having concluded separate agreements with them. Tarrifs on China, however, should come into force on Tuesday.
And so far, Beijing has held up.
In 2018, when Trump launched the first of the many tariff cycles targeting Chinese imports, Beijing said that he was “not afraid of a trade war”. This time, he urged the United States to speak and “meet China halfway”.
This does not mean that the announcement will not bite. It will be all the more since the 10% levy adds to a multitude of prices which he imposed during his first mandate on tens of billions of dollars in goods.
And the silent response of the Chinese government is partly because it does not want to worry about its population, when many are already concerned about the slow economy.
But this economy does not depend as much on the United States as at the time. Beijing has strengthened its trade agreements through Africa, South America and Southeast Asia. It is now the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries.
The additional 10% may not offer the leverage effect that Trump wants, explains Chong Ja Ian from Carnegie China.
“China will think that it can probably last 10% – therefore, I think Beijing plays cool. Because if it is not so important, there is no reason to fight with the Trump administration unless that there is a real advantage in Beijing. “
“ Win-Win ” from XI, America withdrew
President Xi Jinping can also have another reason: he can see an opportunity here.
Trump sowing the division in his own backyard, threatening to even strike the European Union (EU) with prices – all during his first month in power. His actions may have other American allies wondering what reserves them.
On the other hand, China will want to appear a calm, stable and perhaps more attractive global trading partner.
“Trump’s America’s focusing politics will provide challenges and threats to almost all countries in the world,” Yun Sun, Chinese program director at the Stimson Center, told.
“From the point of view of American-Chinese strategic competition, a deterioration in leadership and the credibility of the United States will benefit China. It is unlikely that it turns well for China at the bilateral level, but Beijing will try Surely to make lemonade … “
XIQING WANG / BBC
Cambodia has become an important importer of Chinese raw materials – and a destination for Chinese companies seeking to circumvent American prices
As a leader in the second world economy, XI has not hidden its ambition for China to lead an alternative world order.
Since the end of the pandemic has been cocvid, he has traveled a lot and he has supported major international institutions such as the World Bank and agreements such as Paris climate agreements.
Chinese state media have described this as embracing countries around the world and deepening diplomatic ties.
Before that, when Trump interrupted US WHO funding in 2020, China has promised additional funds. Expectations are high according to which Beijing can intervene to fill American shoes again, after the Washington from the WHO.
The same goes for the freeze of aid which causes such chaos in countries and organizations which have long depended on American financing – China may wish to fill the void, despite an economic slowdown.
During his first day in office, Trump froze all the foreign aid provided by the United States, which is by far the largest donor in the world of help. Hundreds of foreign aid programs provided by USAID Ground. Some have since restarted, but help entrepreneurs describe current chaos as the future of the agency is at stake.
John Delury, a historian of modern China and professor at the University of Yonsei in Seoul, said that Trump’s “America First” doctrine could further weaken Washington’s position as a world leader.
“The combination of prices on the main trade partners and freezing foreign assistance sends a message to the world of world and to the OECD that the United States is not interested in the international partnership, collaboration”, -It declared to the BBC.
“The coherent message from President XI of the globalization of the” winner “takes on a whole new meaning while America is withdrawn from the world.”
In his candidacy for global governance, Beijing has sought a chance to upset the world order led by the Americans of the last 50 years – and the uncertainty of Trump 2.0 may well be.
New alliances
“That it really gives Beijing a key advantage – I’m a little less sure,” said Chong.
“Many American allies and partners, especially in the Pacific, have a reason to work with Beijing, but they also have reasons to be wary. This is why we have seen Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia are partly closer, partly due to apprehensions, they feed towards China.
There is “momentum” for a possible trilateral relationship between Australia, Japan and South Korea, motivated by “the impact of a second Trump administration”, according to the Australian Institute of International Affairs.
National working group for the Western Philippine Sea
Tensions in the southern China sea mean that some Chinese neighbors are already wary
All three are concerned about China’s assertion in the Southern China Sea, as well as the Philippines. They are also concerned about a possible war against the autonomous island of Taiwan – Beijing sees it as a province of escape which will ultimately be part of the country and has not excluded the use of force to achieve it.
Taiwan has long been one of the most controversial questions about American-Chinese relations, Beijing condemning any perceived support of Washington for Taipei.
But it can be difficult for Washington to retaliate with signs of Chinese assault when Trump threatens several times to annex Canada or buy Greenland.
Most countries in the region have used a military alliance with Washington to balance their economic relations with China.
But now, suspicious of Beijing and wear in the United States, they could create new Asian alliances, with none of the world’s largest powers.
Calm before the storm
Trump announced the prices on weekends, while Chinese families celebrated the new year and invited the god of fortune to their homes.
The bright red lanterns are currently swinging in the empty streets of Beijing, as most workers left for their hometown during the biggest holidays of the year.
China’s response was much more silent than that of Canada or Mexico. The Ministry of Commerce has announced its intention to bring legal action and use the World Trade Organization to disseminate its grievances.
But that represents little threat to Washington. The WTO dispute settlement system has actually been closed since 2019, when Donald Trump – during his first mandate, then blocked the appointment of judges to manage calls.
While the holidays rely on a fence and party officials return to Beijing and at work – they have decisions to make.
Officials have been encouraged in recent weeks by signs that the Trump administration might want to maintain the stable relationship, especially after the two leaders had what Trump called “a great telephone call” last month.
For the moment, China is perhaps calm in the hope of concluding an agreement with Washington to avoid other prices and to prevent the relationship between the two biggest economies in the world from becoming out of control.
But some believe that it cannot last because the Republicans and Democrats have come to consider China as the largest foreign policy and economic threat of the country.
“The unpredictability of Mr. Trump, his impulsiveness and carelessness will inevitably lead to important shocks in the bilateral relationship,” said Wu Xinbo, professor and director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University.
“In addition, his team contains a lot of hawks, even extreme hawks on China. It is inevitable that the bilateral relationship is confronted with serious disturbances in the next four years.”
China is certainly concerned about its relationship with the United States and the damage that a trade war could make its slowdown in the economy.
But it will also seek means to use the current political pendulum to swing the international community in its own way and in its sphere of influence.
