The postponement of the Hall of Fame game has upset some of our expectations, but we're in full swing with the NFL preseason starting tonight.
All of my picks for tonight can be found on PrizePicks. There are three teams featured, with at least one pick for each team. Let's get started!
Note: The numbers next to each option are their respective confidence levels from 1 to 10, with 10 being the most confident.
Sean Koerner's NFL Preseason Predictions for Tonight (PrizePicks)
Joe Milton
Under 60.5 passing yards (7)
The Patriots plan to use all four quarterbacks tonight, and as I have outlined in my quarterback matchup chart, I expect Milton to potentially play the entire third quarter.
This line would mean New England will have around 240 passing yards for the entire game, which is very high for the preseason. Milton could play into the 4th quarter, taking away potential playing time from Bailey Zappe, but I think the chances of that happening are less than 50%. I expect Milton to play just the 1st quarter.
Milton is a very raw prospect who played in Tennessee's very unconventional offense in college. He has a cannon arm, but I think he'll struggle with accuracy in his NFL debut tonight. He's a talented runner, so I think he'll rely on his rushing ability a bit more when the play breaks down. That will reduce his potential pass attempts and lower his projected passing yards. I'm putting this closer to 53.5 yards.
Raheem Blackshear
Raheem Blackshear – Under 27.5 yards (8)
The Panthers will likely use four running backs tonight, with each playing roughly 1/4 of the minutes. I expect Blackshear and Mike Boone to play the first half, with Dillon Johnson and Jaeden Schaden playing the second half.
It remains to be seen if they will alternate drives and quarters, but I think Blackshear could potentially start.As I already stated in my game preview, I projected the Patriots at -0.5 in the first quarter, but as the Patriots will be using their starters (both defensive and defensive tackles) for the majority of the first quarter, I think that is when they will have the biggest advantage.
That means Blackshear could end up facing the Patriots' first-line defense while playing behind the Panthers' second-string offensive line with UDFA Jack Plummer under center.
As a result, it will be difficult for the Panthers to move the ball, extend drives, and try to rush Blacksher. I also think Blacksher will be in the passing game, but dump-offs and screen passes will be wasted yards for him in this market. I also think the Panthers could try to make a deliberate rush on WR Yhmir Smith-Marsette, but it would come at the expense of Blacksher.
He's also one of the team's kick returners, so the team will want to let him practice with the new kickoff rules, so his minutes at running back could be limited tonight.
I project his time to be closer to 23.5 yards per attempt, which is pretty big because when teams used four backs in Week 1 of last year's preseason, only 11 of those 48 backs rushed for more than 28 yards.
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Feleipe Franks
Under 12.5 receiving yards (9)
The Panthers will be without Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas tonight, but they have a pretty solid tight end corps with the additions of Jesper Horsted and Jacob Hollister a few days ago. They'll want to give rookie Ja'Tavion Sanders plenty of playing time tonight, so it'll be up to four or five other tight ends to compete for the remaining spot.
Franks is a former quarterback turned tight end who has made six preseason appearances in his career so far, with one catch giving him five yards. That number is so high that he could fall below it with one catch. The fact that he may need two catches to clear that number is what makes this play so impressive. I'd put him closer to the median of 7.5, since I'm not sure he'll be targeted tonight.
Isaiah Williams
Under 20.5 receiving yards (9)
The Lions will be competing for the No. 3 spot tonight, meaning Doris Fountain, Antoine Green and Donovan Peoples-Jones could get ample playing time, with about six receivers, including Isaiah Williams, likely to get snaps outside of that contention.
He's an undrafted free agent out of Illinois and I'm sure the Lions will give him significant playing time tonight, but he's an undersized slot receiver with limited speed (4.63 40-yard time) and could fall short of those numbers on one or two receptions. Needing more than three receptions would be tough for a guy who will likely be on the back end of tonight's nine-man rotation.
Williams is also more likely to play when Hooker is in the game, as he is more likely to scramble than Sudfeld, which could hurt Williams' chances of getting a target.
I predict his median will be closer to 15.5.
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