Welcome to “Opening Pitch,” our daily column that will run throughout the 2024 MLB season.
Opening Pitch's goal is to highlight daily predictive edges on MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide betting notes and analysis.
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You can also find the best lines on our MLB odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, August 8th.
Thursday's MLB predictions, expert predictions, odds and today's preview (August 8th)
Sean Zerillo's Best MLB Bets on Giants vs Nationals
Kyle Harrison (SFG) vs. DJ Hurts (WSH)
Throughout his 26 MLB starts, Kyle Harrison has proven to be a noticeably better pitcher at home than he is on the road.
Harrison posted a 3.23 ERA, 3.84 xFIP and 18.8% strikeout rate in 69 2/3 innings at home, while holding opponents to a 6.6% HR/FB rate and a 0.65 HR/FB rate at Oracle Park.
Harrison has pitched 66 1/3 innings on the road with a 5.02 ERA, 5.12 xFIP and 10.2% K-BB% to go with a 2.31 HR/9 and 18.1% HR/FB ratio.
Harrison has thrown his fastball 60% of the time over his four seasons, and while it has produced the best results (.324 xwOBA) of any pitch in his arsenal (.382 xwOBA on the slurve, .370 on the changeup), Harrison has allowed a ton of fly balls in the process.
Fly balls don't usually count against him at Oracle Park, which has the lowest home run park coefficient (79) in MLB over the past three years, although C.J. Abrams did homer him in San Francisco.
They don’t have much ability to keep the ball at Nationals Park (102, 13th) or other away venues.
Harrison’s pitching modeling metrics have also steadily declined over the season, dropping from Stuff+90, Location+105 and Pitching+97 in April to 91/97/91 in May and June and 87/89/86 since July 1st.
DJ Hurts (3.19 xERA, 22.9% K-BB%) seems like a potentially underrated and undervalued pitcher for Washington (FIP range of 4.34-4.69) if he can maintain his strikeout rate, though his pitch modeling metrics are subpar (Stuff+ 93, Pitching+ 97, Bottle 4.60).
Hurts ranks the Giants' offense with favorable splits (120 wRC+, second against lefties and 17th against righties), but Washington's main relievers are well-rested heading into Thursday.
Bets: Nationals F5 Moneyline (-102 or higher) | Nationals Full Game Moneyline (+100 or higher) | 8.5 or higher (9, -110 or higher)
Sean Zerillo's Padres vs Pirates MLB odds, predictions and picks
Randy Vasquez (SDP) vs. Luis L. Ortiz (PIT)
The Padres' relief corps has been overworked the past two nights: Dylan Cease only got one inning on Tuesday, then a lengthy rain stop forced Brian Hoying to step in with four key relievers in long relief, and then they needed six relievers on Thursday in a 9-8 comeback win.
I think the Padres' well-rested bullpen has the advantage against any team, but with Jeremiah Estrada, Tanner Scott and Adrian Morejon pitching consecutive days in San Diego, I expect the Pirates to have the pitching advantage late in Thursday's game. Pittsburgh's bullpen is a little more rested, even though David Bednar missed the save.
Randy Vazquez (xERA 5.91, K-BB% 8.8%, Stuff+ 106, Pitching+ 100, botERA 3.96) continues to perform below average with above average pitch modeling metrics. Vazquez has posted a 3.24 ERA since mid-June, but has yet to strike out a batter and his K-BB% has dropped in that time (7.2%).
Luis L. Ortiz (3.96 xERA, 11% K-BB%, 104 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+, 3.95 botERA) has pitch modeling metrics comparable to Vázquez and produced better results on the field, although his projections for pitches in his last start against the Diamondbacks are a bit concerning.
Arizona faced Ortiz for the second straight game, and the right-hander hit a triple and three home runs early in the game before settling down.
Barring the possibility that Ortiz might misfire a pitch, Pittsburgh should have the advantage in pitching on Thursday.
Bet: Pirates Full Game Moneyline (-115 or higher) | 8.5 or higher (-120 or 9, +100 or higher)
Shawn Zerillo's MLB Mets vs Rockies Predictions: Value of the Over/Under
David Peterson (NYM) vs. Austin Gomber (COL)
As a Mets fan, I worry that a rotation that regularly features David Peterson (3.47 ERA, 5.30 xERA, 7.7% strikeout rate) and Jose Quintana (3.95 ERA, 5.02 xERA, 9.9% strikeout rate) could fall apart over the final two months of the season.
After offseason hip surgery, Peterson’s strikeout-minus-walk rate is less than half what it was in 2023 (15.9%) despite an increased velocity (93.4 mph vs. 92.7 mph in 2023) and both his Stuff+ (94) and Pitching+ (95) ratings are career-highs.
Peterson's BABIP (.299) isn't particularly low, his strand rate (81.1%) is high but not astronomical (career 73.9%), and his HR/9 rate (0.91) isn't all that different from his career average (1.12) or from past seasons (0.94 in 2022, 0.91 in 2020).
However, Peterson is coming off a career-high 55% ground-ball rate, and as long as he keeps hitting those balls, he should continue to outperform his underlying metrics.
Austin Gomber (4.83 xERA, 11.5% K-BB%, Stuff+ 80, Location+ 103, Pitching+ 98) is arguably the better lefty pitcher, but he's stuck in a much worse home environment.
Both pitchers should benefit from the cool August weather (71 degrees Fahrenheit at first pitch) Thursday afternoon, with a 6-7 mph wind out of right field.
On an average day at Coors Field, I would have set this total score at 10.93 points, but the wind and weather conditions lowered my prediction to 10.39 points.
Bet: Under 11 (Over -115)
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Zerrillo's MLB bets for Thursday, August 8th
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Baltimore Orioles / Toronto Blue Jays, over 9 (-105, risk 0.5u), FanDuel (flat -116), Los Angeles Angels / New York Yankees, over 8.5 (-110, risk 0.5u), FanDuel (flat -120 or 9, +100), Milwaukee Brewers (+130, 0.5u), FanDuel (bet +125), New York Mets / Colorado Rockies, under 11 (-105, risk 0.5u), BetMGM (flat -115), Philadelphia Phillies (-108, 0.5u), FanDuel (bet -112), Pittsburgh Pirates (-105, 0.5u, bet -115), San Diego Padres / Pittsburgh Pirates, over 8.5 on FanDuel (+100, risk 0.5u) (-120 or 9, flat to +100)San Francisco Giants / Washington Nationals, over 8.5 on DraftKings (-120, risk 0.5u) (9, flat to -110)Washington Nationals F5 (+102, 0.25u) on FanDuel (small to -102)Washington Nationals (+110, 0.5u) on FanDuel (bet to +100)
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