We've made it to Friday!
With 15 MLB games scheduled, our staff has come up with four best MLB bets, including two Rangers vs Yankees predictions.
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The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is keeping an eye on in today's games: Click on the team logos for any matchup below to access the specific bets featured in this article.
Check out Tanner McGrath's Best Rangers vs Yankees Bets: Cody Bradford!
Tanner McGrath
Rangers rookie pitcher Cody Bradford, who will start Friday against the Yankees, is an intriguing young pitcher. He doesn't have any eye-watering pitches, throwing a “low 90s fastball” more than half the time, but he has incredible control, including a 70 MPH changeup and a fastball that combines elite extension (7+ feet) with good distance (17-inch vertical break). He has a combined strikeout rate of nearly 30% with a sub-4 ERA and a projected ERA of sub-3.
Their opponent is Carlos Rodon, who has had an inconsistent season with the Yankees. His velocity has increased in recent starts, but Rodon's ERA has been over 4 since the start of June, which is roughly in line with his expected run-scoring metrics (4.37 ERA, 4.22 xERA, 4.59 FIP, 4.21 xFIP).
The Yankees have a clear fielding advantage, but the Rangers have an offensive advantage, and Texas has performed better against lefties (97 wRC+) and righties (89 wRC+).
The Yankees seem to have an advantage in the bullpen, but it's not by much. The Rangers have a shaky reliever, but the acquisition of Andrew Chaffin from the Tigers strengthened that staff greatly. The Yankees acquired Mark Leiter Jr., and closer Clay Holmes has been good lately, but I still don't trust setup men Luke Weaver and Tommy Kahnle. Overall, the Yankees' relief corps is below average.
Rangers will gain some value on Friday by using promising prospect Bradford, who is likely underrated but may also be slightly overrated based on name alone, especially against Rodon.
Pick: Rangers ML (+170)
Tony Sartori's best Rangers vs. Yankees bets: These lineups can be beaten
Tony Sartori
Let's start with the batting as both the batting line-ups have the potential to score runs.
The New York Yankees rank in the top 10 in the league in runs per game, hits per game, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers should have no problem attacking Carlos Rodon when he takes the mound for New York. The Texas lineup boasts a .275 batting average, .490 slugging percentage and a .367 wOBA against Rodon in his 58 career starts.
His success at the plate will likely continue given Rodon's poor performance this season: He has a 4.37 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 23 starts and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, the Rangers will be entrusting the ball to Cody Bradford, who has been too erratic for my liking, and he has a tendency to cede the deep ball given his below-average exit velocity and barrel rate rankings.
Some teams can get away with doing that, but the Yankees are definitely not one of them.
Pick: 9 or better (-105)
Pick: Rangers vs Yankees 9+
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Cody Goggin's best bet on Athletics vs Blue Jays: Athletics should acquire Berrios
Cody Goggin
The Oakland Athletics are by no means a postseason contender, but they are a bit overrated offensively.
Despite a reputation as one of the worst teams in the league, Oakland ranks 14th in wRC+ this season with an above-average 101. They also rank 20th in wOBA, 18th in SLG, and 11th in ISO.
Oakland's biggest offensive problem has been strikeouts — their 25.1% strikeout rate is third-highest in baseball — but they're 11th in walk rate, so they're not completely undisciplined at the plate.
The Athletics rank 12th in hard-hit rate, 5th in barrel rate and 6th in exit ball velocity. If you subtract strikeouts and walks, Oakland ranks 6th in xwOBACON this season.
Our opponent tonight is Jose Berrios, who was once a good starting pitcher but has fallen off the rails over the past few seasons. Berrios' ERA this season is 4.11, which isn't bad. However, Berrios' xERA is 5.28, which ranks him in the 7th percentile.
Berrios has lost his ability to strike out batters, ranking in the 18th percentile for strikeout rate and 12th percentile for strikeout rate, and he has allowed a lot of hard contact, ranking in the 12th percentile for hard hit rate, 17th percentile for exit velocity and 44th percentile for barrel rate.
My favorite bet for this game is to back the Athletics offense and not bet on Berrios. I think Oakland has a good chance of scoring more than 3 runs against Berrios in this matchup, so I’ll bet Berrios at -125 for more than 2.5 earned runs.
Pick: Jose Berrios, 2.5+ earned runs (-125)
DJ James' best bets for Reds vs Brewers: Cincinnati's lineup differences
DJ James
Carson Spires has been a great addition to the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation.
The 26-year-old right-hander has an above-average batted ball stat with a 3.59 ERA and 3.54 xERA. He's striking out just 20% of the time but walking less than 5% of the time. He's not one to chase batters or force grounders, but he's an overall solid starter.
His opponent is Aaron Civale of the Milwaukee Brewers. Civale is an average pitcher with a 5.14 ERA and 4.28 xERA, but his batted ball stats are worse than Spears' and he can't keep the ball on grounders (35% grounder rate).
The Reds have a 129 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers over the past month, while the Brewers have just a 102 wRC+.
While the bullpens of both teams are roughly even, the Reds have a clear advantage in both starting pitching and batting lineup against right-handed pitchers.
Cincinnati is underrated so I expect them to win this game.
Pick: Reds ML (+120)
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