Attachments
Armenia-Azerbaijan: Baku warns of 'provocations'
Despite the only armed clash occurring on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border in July, tensions appear far from easing as no peace treaty between the two countries has been signed. On July 21, Azerbaijan claimed that Armenian forces had targeted Azerbaijani positions in the Kalbajar region with large-caliber weapons, an unusual development from the usual claims of small arms attacks. A week later, Azerbaijan claimed to have intercepted an Armenian reconnaissance drone in the Lachin region. Azerbaijan has vowed to retaliate against what it sees as Armenian provocations in light of Armenia's acquisition of French weapons, the European Union's recent approval of military aid to Armenia, and U.S.-Armenian military exercises. 2 Peace talks appear to be stalled as a meeting of foreign ministers in Washington DC on July 10 did not appear to provide a clearer timeline for the signing of a treaty, and a summit at a European summit in the UK did not materialize. Separately, Armenia held talks with Turkey aimed at partially reopening its borders, drawing heavy criticism from the Azerbaijani press.
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Belarus: Russian drone goes off course
Russia's aggression in Ukraine may be beginning to spill over into Belarus, an ally that tolerated Russia's initial aggression but has not been involved in the war so far. Since mid-July, Russian attack drones have entered Belarusian airspace multiple times. 3 On July 16, one of them crashed in Gomel Oblast. A drone was also spotted flying over the same area on July 30. Reports that Belarusian military aircraft scrambled to try to intercept the drone may indicate that the incident was not a friendly flight en route to a Ukrainian target. 4 In early July, Belarus deployed missiles, including nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, near its border, ostensibly in response to a suspected Ukrainian military buildup in the region, raising tensions with Ukraine. 5 Belarusian forces quickly withdrew, and President Alexander Lukashenko said he would comply with the Ukrainian withdrawal. 6 In a separate incident, Belarusian and Chinese militaries conducted an 11-day long drill near the Polish border.
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France: Railway and Internet infrastructure destroyed
Suspected far-left activists disrupted France's rail and communications networks before and during the Olympics. On the eve of the opening ceremony on July 26, unknown assailants set fire to rail cables in the north, east and southwest of Paris, severely disrupting high-speed rail services to and from the capital for three days. An anonymous (presumably left-wing) group claimed responsibility, listing a range of grievances from discontent with capitalism to the suppression of the New Caledonian independence movement. On July 29, smaller coordinated attacks on infrastructure targeted four companies' fiber-optic networks. The disruption from the cable cuts affected at least 17 of the 96 departments in mainland France. Messages critical of nuclear waste management and the government's response to the New Caledonian riots were found at the site of the disruption, one of which was near a fan zone in eastern Paris. The far-left group Attack claimed responsibility. The vandalism occurred despite French security forces being on alert for possible attacks during the Olympics. Security forces arrested a suspected Russian spy in Paris on July 21 on suspicion of plotting destabilization, along with another suspected Russian agent detained a month earlier.
See also ACLED Brief: Is extremist group violence on the rise in the EU?
