Delmar's pick:
With Hurricane Debbie battering the East Coast, there will be fewer races than usual on Friday — Saratoga was canceled today in preparation for the weekend, and the Colonial and Saratoga stakes races have been moved from Saturday to Sunday — but it's sunny in San Diego, and Del Mar's Friday twilight race will start at 7pm ET.
Graduation, Delmar, Race #7
One of my favorite races in August on both coasts is the 2-year-old stakes races where you can see horses make big strides. This year's Graduation, a race of 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt for California horses, is no exception. The favorite is third-place R. Heisman, ridden by top rider JJ Hernandez and ridden by Peter Miller. He placed 2nd in two state-bred maidens before taking on the Northern California open stakes races. He's outpaced horses before, something not many of these horses can do. His numbers are reasonable, but the 6/5 odds are too low for me.
Just outside is Bodacious at #4. After a great debut against state-breds at Santa Anita, he was sent to Churchill to face the best young horses on the East Coast. He was the favorite at Churchill but ran at a blistering pace and retired. The race strength is better than it looks on paper and the field he faces today is much easier. If Bodacious can recapture his debut strength he will be a formidable presence in this race. Odds of 6-1 are attractive.
No. 7 I'm A Bad Boy has yet to win a race but both of his races came in tough maiden starts and he will need to improve further today, but I believe talented two-year-old trainer Luis Mendes can get him ready for this race.
Case Hit (number 6) beat two horses in his debut race and won his first race. He showed great speed and was able to hold off a horse that was catching up in the final stages. This is his second race in his career and he should be in better shape. If he can clear this race, he will be a very dangerous horse.
Delmar prediction: 4-3-6-7
Bet: $50 Win #4
$30k Kramer N3L, Delmar, Race #8
The final race of the day is an interesting puzzle over a mile on the turf. #3 Bee Catcher ran at this level before attempting a stakes race last time. He set the pace and ran a solid 4th place against much better opponents than this group. There's not a lot of speed today so he'll probably be able to get a good run running the rails on both turns. He's the favorite but there are a lot of races that could win this one.
The No. 1 Explain This Audit had a great run last time out over distances significantly longer than today's distance. He has shown the talent to win at these distances, but the aforementioned distance is an issue. He is winless in seven starts over a mile, and most of his success has come at longer distances.
The second-placed horse, Mega Moon, returns to the claiming level for the first time since beating his first claimer in July 2023. He's been good at this track, finishing first or second in every turf race at Del Mar, but he's yet to win at a mile. The level could be the equalizer, but some big questions need to be answered.
Number 6 Incredible Shot has sprinted in 4 of his last 5 races, but has won at a mile in the past. His numbers all line up, but he just doesn't seem to like winning. It's been over a year since he last won, and he has 0 wins in his last 12 races.
Delmar prediction: 3-1-2-6
Bet: $50 Win #3
Spot Play:
Delmar, Race #5, $50 Win #9
Delmar, Race #4. $50 Win #7
