Recent developments in South Asia, particularly the Bangladesh uprising, are changing the dynamics of the region with potential global implications. Home to 1.94 billion people, South Asia is plagued by rising extremism, democratic backsliding and political instability. As a major player in the Indo-Pacific, the turmoil in the region has profound implications, especially given Bangladesh's strategic location in the Bay of Bengal. In April this year, Nepal saw massive protests calling for the restoration of the monarchy. Amid the turmoil, political parties were able to form a coalition government to balance relations with India and China. And now, South Asia's second-largest economy, Bangladesh, is experiencing a bloody change of government sparked by student protests over job quotas that escalated with the involvement of militants. Students in Dhaka, Bangladesh, are demanding justice for the victims who were arrested and killed during violent protests over job quotas on August 3. Photo: AFP
Overall, the outlook for democracy in South Asia is bleak, with the ongoing shift towards authoritarianism and mob rule showing little sign of reversal. As major powers navigate this complex and volatile situation, the implications for stability in the region and global geopolitics will continue to be felt.
South Asia is caught in the US-China geopolitical rivalry, with major implications for India. Projected to be the world's third-largest economy by 2028, India has attracted US interest in countering China. However, New Delhi remains adamant on its strategic autonomy. Meanwhile, China's growing regional influence poses a challenge to Indian foreign policy interests. Recently, Bangladesh has become a victim of great power rivalry. Under Sheikh Hasina's government, Bangladesh's independent foreign policy and leaning towards Beijing has angered Washington. Bangladesh has been reluctant to join the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a platform consisting of Australia, India, Japan and the US, which is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Bangladeshi politicians claim that the US wants to lease Saint Martin, an island in the Bay of Bengal, a claim the US denies. Hasina has said that foreign countries have rejected offers from “white people” to build airbases in Bangladesh. In June, he said he would not agree to a lease on St Martin, which would make it easier for him to remain in power, and he also said there was a plot underway to create a Christian state out of Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Meanwhile, over the past decade, China's influence in South Asia has grown through its Belt and Road Initiative, which has involved South Asian countries such as Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Infrastructure projects and cultural exchanges have changed public perceptions and advanced Chinese interests. This growing influence has affected India's soft power and relations with its neighbors, worrying the New Delhi government.
Workers walk along the Colombo West International Terminal under construction in Colombo, Sri Lanka, November 8, 2023. The United States is investing in the project to curb Chinese influence in South Asia. Photo: BloombergInterestingly, China is following the US lead and beginning to play a role in shaping the future direction of these countries. The rumored diplomatic snub during Hasina's recent visit to China may be one indicator of the shifting dynamics in the region. As prime minister, she granted India access to the strategically crucial Mongla and Chittagong ports, and favored India over China in the Teesta River project. An experienced player in South Asia, the United States has established strong strategic ties with Pakistan, exerts significant influence in Nepalese politics, and maintains friendly informal relations with Bhutan. The United States engages with India through the Quad, defense cooperation, and joint military exercises in the Indian Ocean. Attempts to gain influence in Bangladesh, asset freezes in Afghanistan, and strategic positioning near Sri Lanka and the Straits of Malacca reportedly help maintain hegemony in the region.
The United States is engaged in a strategic chess game with its foreign policy increasingly focused on countering China's growing influence in the region, with the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor being one such move to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative in South Asia.
Meanwhile, China has effectively used its economic and diplomatic might to strengthen its all-weather friendship with Pakistan and Nepal, while its Indian Ocean partner, the Maldives, supports Beijing's Maritime Silk Road initiative.
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India-Maldives tensions sparked by online dispute over tourism
India-Maldives tensions sparked by online dispute over tourism
Beijing's diplomatic actions in the region have served its interests in Myanmar, balanced relations with Nepal, and managed relations with Sri Lanka despite previous setbacks. Recent developments in Bangladesh could be an opportunity to expand its influence, given China's good relationship with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. Notably, China has become South Asia's leading trading partner, with trade expected to reach US$197.4 billion in 2022, growing at an average rate of 8.3%. Moreover, the changing regional situation may lead India to become more accommodating towards Beijing over time, although it will maintain its position on the border dispute with China. China has a responsibility to act maturely and seize the opportunity to amicably resolve the border dispute in a manner that benefits both sides.
Competing interests between great powers are reshaping the dynamics of South Asia, creating both challenges and opportunities with profound global implications.
Sagina Wariyat is an India-based constitutional lawyer and Asia Global Fellow at the University of Hong Kong.
