It's hard to believe, but there's only about a month left of the baseball season. With less than 50 games left for each team, it should be fun to see how the games go. We have another full card to analyze for Sunday's games, but only three games have been excluded: the Angels and Nationals in the morning, and the Mets and Mariners in a Sunday night game. The Rockies game has also been excluded, as they have a solo game at 3 PM Eastern Time.
With that in mind, let's take a closer look at what's on offer this Sunday.
Sunday's MLB DFS and player picks
Sunday starting pitcher rankings
Dylan Schiess (SD) MIA
Dylan Cease was on the brink of another masterpiece during his rain-shortened appearance against Pittsburgh earlier this week. That's because the right-hander owns a 0.31 ERA, 0.56 WHIP and 11.9 strikeout rate over his past five starts. Those numbers are hard to imagine, but a matchup against Miami is scary. The Marlins rank 29th in runs scored, on-base percentage (OBP), OPS and wOBA. All of that makes Cease a -210 favorite entering the matchup.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs. PIT
It's hard to believe that Tyler Glasnow is my second favorite pitcher in this game, but that's a testament to how good he is. Glasnow is no joke pitcher with a 3.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 11.6 K/9. He can easily play against anyone, but Pittsburgh finished miserable. The Pirates rank 22nd in runs scored, 25th in strikeout rate, 26th in on-base percentage, and 28th in wOBA. This is also a revenge game for Glasnow, who enters this game as a -260 favorite after giving up just one run and three hits in six innings in his last matchup against Pittsburgh.
Hayden Birdsong (SF) vs. DET
Birdsong has looked bad in his most recent outings, so this is a risk, but let's call it a fluke. The right-hander hadn't pitched in the previous two weeks, but in his first six starts he had a 2.77 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP and an 11.3 strikeout rate per nine innings. In his previous two outings, he had 45 and 58 FanDuel points, and he could do so again against Detroit's woeful offense. The Motor City Kitties rank 20th in runs scored, 28th in on-base percentage and 21st in strikeout rate.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs. OAK
Chris Bassitt has struggled recently, but I was encouraged by what I saw in the game earlier this week. The right-hander came close to throwing a no-hitter against a dominant Orioles lineup, which is something we've become accustomed to over the last few years. Bassitt had a 3.29 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over the past four years before slumping this season. It's good to see him post a 3.13 ERA and 1.13 WHIP at home in 2021 and beyond. This should bode well for the game against Oakland, as the Athletics rank 22nd in runs scored, 25th in on-base percentage and 28th in strikeout percentage. Bassitt has also earned 46 and 52 FanDuel points in the past two meetings.
MLB DFS Picks: Suggested Lineup Stacks
Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Bailey Falter)
The Dodgers have an advantage against everyone. Los Angeles ranks in the top five in nearly every offensive category. They should have success against Bailey Falter. The Pirates lefty posted a 5.36 ERA and 1.41 WHIP last season and should bounce back to a 4.96 xERA in this tough matchup. When they met a month ago, Falter allowed 10 runners and five runs in four nightmare innings.
Houston Astros (vs. James Paxton)
There's a reason the Dodgers released James Paxton. The player has the worst walk rate in baseball, an xFIP of 5.22 and a WHIP of 1.43. Those terrible averages will be a liability against Houston. The Astros have been in the top five in just about every offensive statistic over the past two months. That was on full display when they gave up six runs in four innings in their last matchup.
MLB DFS Picks: Core Studs
To say Aaron Judge is the best hitter would be an understatement. The guy is in another world right now. Since May 3, he has posted a .507 on-base percentage, .820 slugging percentage, and 1.327 OPS. He also has a platoon advantage over Andrew Heaney, who has a career ERA of 4.43. If you think of the Astros as a stack, Jose Altuve has to be one of the top options. The second baseman is having another All-Star season this year, hitting .302 with an OPS of .801 to go with 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases. He has also been dominant against left-handed pitchers throughout his career, posting a .395 on-base percentage and .936 OPS against them since the 2021 season. To say Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in top form doesn't do him justice. He has been arguably the best hitter in baseball over the past month, batting .506/.571/1.065 with a 1.636 OPS over his past 21 games. I can't believe anyone is still pitching against him with those batting averages. Never mind that he has a platoon advantage over a terrible Athletics staff. Teoscar Hernandez is the backbone of the Dodgers' lineup and one of their best signings this year. He's batting .344/.611 with a .955 OPS against lefties this year and will be key against Falter. He also comes into this matchup with a 1.179 OPS over his past 10 games with a blazing lead.
MLB DFS Picks: Value Plays/Punts
Alex Bregman and Altuve have been elite batters for almost a decade, with both hitting against lefties throughout their careers. Altuve, a third baseman, has a .367 on-base percentage and .848 OPS against lefties over his career, including an .830 OPS in his past 60 games in this matchup. Xander Bogaerts had a horrible first month, but has been unstoppable since returning from the disabled list. In his 19 games since returning from the IL, Bogaerts has a .390 batting average, .500 slugging percentage and .920 OPS. This is the All-Star we know and love. You can't discount him against a rookie with a 5.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Most people discount catchers on the DFS slate, but Will Smith is a sensational option whenever LA faces a lefty pitcher. Not only will Smith bat third or fourth, but he also has the platoon advantage of a .403 OBP and .954 OPS. While most people pivot to Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman in the Dodgers stack, using Smith and Hernandez is a great way to differentiate yourself from the rest. Michael Conforto hasn't been the player he used to be since leaving the Mets, but he still has some potential. We've seen glimpses of it recently, posting a .548 OBP, .875 SLG and 1.423 OPS in his last seven games. This has made him a big rise in the San Francisco lineup, and he's always been much better against right-handed pitchers. Cader Montero is another right-handed pitcher he can rely on, posting a 5.62 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.
Sunday's Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props
Dylan Cease: 7.5 or more strikeouts
Dylan Cease has an 11.9 K/9 over his past five starts and, given Miami's poor performance, could be in line for another no-hitter.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Total bases 1.5 – High
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has had a hit in every game over the past month and has exceeded this total in 10 of his last 13 games.
Matt Wallner: 0.5 Total Bases – High
Matt Wallner is batting .488/.970 with a 1.458 OPS over his last 11 games, including a 1.116 OPS against right-handed pitching.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer here at FantasyPros. To see more of Josh's work, check out his archives and follow him. Bartilotta Joel.
