It is likely that after Moscow and Pyongyang decided to deploy North Korean forces in Ukraine, these countries asked China for permission and received it, says Professor Joel Atkinson of Seoul's Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. According to him, the goals of these three regimes are close to each other. – If Russia loses in Ukraine, it will leave the board. But if he wins, he will be ready to conquer Europe, he said.
The rapprochement of Russia, North Korea and China took place against the background of aggression against Ukraine. According to US and South Korean intelligence services, the Pyongyang regime has delivered millions of missiles to Moscow and transferred at least 3,000 troops to Russia in October.
In turn, Xi Jinping, the leader of China, and Vladimir Putin, the dictator of Russia, declared “borderless friendship” between their countries three weeks before Russia's all-out attack on Ukraine. However, China has declared a neutral attitude towards this war, claiming that it will not send lethal aid to any of the warring parties. At the same time, they have not condemned the aggression of Russia and oppose the imposed sanctions against Moscow.
“Beijing is the dominant partner in this triangle”
– It is believed that the deployment of troops will take place despite Beijing's protest, said Joel Atkinson, an expert on international relations in East Asia.
As he pointed out, according to this theory, it should be assumed that Xi “fears that (the transfer of troops) will strengthen the new idea of the 'axis of evil' and provoke a stronger reaction from the US and Europe and Europe. Asian allies and Russia will reduce Beijing's influence over North Korea and allow it to behave more brazenly while Beijing seeks to control it.”
However, in his opinion, this assumption is based on a misinterpretation of power dynamics and a misunderstanding of the purpose of the leaders' actions.
– Most observers agree that without China's support, Putin's war effort will collapse and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) will collapse as a country. Beijing is the dominant partner in this triangle, he emphasizes.
“If Russia loses in Ukraine, it will be off the table. But if it wins, it will be ready to bully Europe and in effect force the US to keep its troops in Europe while providing Beijing with food supplies. In turn, North Korea, armed with nuclear missiles developed with the help of Russian technology, will be a fierce opponent for South Korea, Japan and the United States if it goes to war with China at the same time.
“Their main goals are convergent”
– The current liberal world order is not a safe environment for any of these three regimes. Xi Jinping's number one task is to prevent the fate of the Soviet Union. He was clear about it. That's an incredibly ambitious goal, Atkinson says. He added, “you can't make an omelette without breaking an egg, and it's not a party to make the world safe for autocracy.” This is a reference to a quote by pro-Leninist journalist Walter Duranty (some attribute these words to Stalin or Lenin himself) and to Mao Zedong's 1927 aphorism that “revolution is not a party (..) it is an act of violence that by means of which one class overthrows another.”
Atkinson admits that the authorities in Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang do not agree on the chosen tactics and when to implement them.
– But it is important that their main goals are the same. And even in terms of tactics and time, the only regime that has the means and economic power to confront the West cannot be deprived of the right of veto. So I think it's possible that Putin and Kim decided when they deployed North Korean troops that they asked Beijing for permission and got it, he noted.
“In other words, Xi himself sat down and discussed it with his confidantes and concluded that, all things considered, it was best to allow it,” he said.
Xi and Putin at the BRICS summit in Russia RUSSIA BRICS SUMMITPAP/EPA/GRIGORI SYSOEV / BRICS-RUSSIA2024.RU / HANDOUT
Expert: Pyongyang's soldiers should help Putin not to lose
– We must remember why Putin wants North Korean forces: to help him not to lose (in Ukraine). Xi may not like the way he achieves that goal, but he shares it, Atkinson explains. He added that the People's Republic of China cannot be excluded from his proposal, but the preparations of Moscow and Pyongyang were already at an advanced stage.
“Given that Xi does not want Putin to lose, he has no choice but to agree with them and hope that their plan will work,” the expert said.
He notes that Communist China's role as the so-called good police not only helps them, but also serves the interests of Russia and North Korea. – The authorities (states) in Europe, instead of taking measures against Russia or punishing the DPRK and China, are talking to Beijing and expect that the disgruntled China will apply for the withdrawal of North Korean forces, – the expert notes.
– The problem, of course, is that the deployment of these forces will further push the scales of war to the detriment of Ukraine and, ultimately, the whole of Europe, and waiting for Beijing will only delay an effective (Western) response, says Atkinson. According to him, Pyongyang's support for Moscow can have consequences for security not only in Europe, but also in East Asia.
“Putin doesn't give more than he needs, but he has to give a lot”
The deployment of 12,000 troops at a time when Putin wants to avoid further Russian deployments is “very valuable” to the Kremlin, and Pyongyang will “almost certainly receive something of comparable value in return” – which could be, for example, missile or nuclear technology. technology, submarines or satellite systems. – Putin does not give more than he needs, but he should give a lot. And Pyongyang will appreciate all this, Atkinson emphasizes.
However, in the event of an armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula, Russia will not provide direct military assistance to North Korea. According to the expert, Russia and China do not want North Korea to lose in such a possible war, but all Moscow's efforts are currently consumed by aggression against Ukraine. However, thanks to technological support, the DPRK's nuclear threats against Washington and Seoul “become a little more credible and allow North Korea to engage in provocations”, even if in reality its war potential has been reduced due to support from the Kremlin.
Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong UnPAP/EPA/GAVRIIL GRIGOROV / SPUTNIK / KREMLIN POOL
Will China invade Taiwan?
The expert admits that in the current geopolitical climate, Xi remains cautious about a possible attack on Taiwan. However, if it decides the time is right, Russia and North Korea will back Beijing because its defeat “would be a devastating strategic setback for all three.” Russia, in turn, will support Beijing, which is “less on the verge of entering hostilities, but for North Korea this could be a good moment to launch an attack on South Korea,” he said.
– It is important that these joint actions are not only because these countries have the same strategic interests with Beijing or because they owe China something for the support they received – Atkinson emphasized.
– If Russia loses in Ukraine, it will leave the board. But if he wins, he is ready to shut down Europe and force the US to keep its troops in Europe and at the same time provide Beijing with food, oil and raw materials, the expert said. – In turn, North Korea, armed with nuclear missiles developed with the help of Russian technology, will be a formidable opponent if South Korea, Japan and the United States enter the Taiwan war with China at the same time, said Atkinson.
Tensions around TaiwanPAP/REUTERS/Adam Ziemienowicz
Main photo source: PAP/EPA/GAVRIIL GRIGOROV / Sputnik / KREMLIN POOL
