SARATOGA SPRINGS, New York —
Bankroll: $2,008
Most of Sunday's racing may (and I emphasize, likely) return to grass. That would be great. As others have pointed out, the past two years have been the worst summers on record for rained-out grass races. That benefits bettors, racing officials and, of course, NYRA, which will offer a less-than-attractive betting product on the day.
But excited by the changing weather, Matthew DeSantis of NYRA Bets committed a cardinal sin: He posted a screenshot of a 10-day forecast that showed nothing but great weather. In other words, when the Saratoga monsoon inevitably hits, we all know exactly who to blame. (Just in case my sarcasm isn't clear, Matthew is a friend and I never miss a chance to chide him!)
Saturday's results: Aviator Gui wasn't bad on debut but fell off the pace in the closing stages and finished third, which cost me $40.
Sunday Bets: I think today was pretty black and white, but the sixth race might offer some value with #6 QUICKICK. This horse might be a little pricey, but he's been running very well. I'll have a $20 win ticket on this horse, plus a $5 ecta with this horse over or under #4 TRADING STRATEGY and #8 TRANGO TOWER. I'll also have a $5 double with this horse starting and finishing with #3 NOTTOWAY and #4 RIDER'S SPECIAL.
Total bet: $50.
Best bet: Ottoman fleet, race 10
Longshot: Nottoway, Race 7
Race 1
She's always Rosie
She's cool
Oh my mia
#4 SHE'S ALWAYS ROSIE (4/5): Little value in Sunday's opener, but definitely a favorite to win. Has made great strides since being claimed by Linda Rice in April, and if she repeats her last good form she will almost certainly win. #2 SHE'S COOL (9/2): The other half of the powerful Rice 1-2 punch, and may be the only late-runner in this race. Not a great run in a local sprint, but a solid 3rd place at Churchill last time out. #1 OH MY MIA (4-1): Breaking through in a lower class last time out, this was also her first start with jockey Jose Ortiz at the reins. He thinks it's appropriate to ride again for Tom Amos, who is very good at getting horses on the right track.
Race 2
Own trade
Apollo Code
Squint your eyes
#2 Proprietary Trade (6/5): Won last time out at Jersey Shore Monmouth, behind Book 'Em Dano (a strong favorite to win the G1 H. Allen Jerkens), but trailed a much better horse. Moved down a class, so was put on Lasix again and has run some very big races in the past. #1 Apollo Code (4-1): Won two straight races against older claimers earlier this year and returns to the claimer ranks against other 3-year-olds in this event. Has shown plenty of early momentum in the past and could be in position to capitalize on it in the rail draw. #4 Squints (8-1): Started first out of Tom Morley's claimer here and won in a close race against some weaker competition. Had an eventful day, but showed enough talent to win a restricted stakes race at Gulfstream late last year.
Race 3
Cold reply
Rachel's Rock
Willow Bend
#2 ICY REPLY (5-1): In her last race, her jockey eased up on her and she missed her chance at the start. The jockey thinks it's appropriate to ride her again in a lower class, and if she can repeat her win two races ago, she'll have a great chance in a crowded race. #3 RACHEL'S ROCK (2-1): She's had a past race where she's dropped significantly down a class and dominated this group. However, she hasn't raced since February and this is her only race since December. She could win, but I think her price is a little on the downside. #5 WILLOW BEND (7/2): She was claimed two races ago and failed last time against a much better horse, but she's probably back to a decent level. As of this writing, this stable has only won one race on this stand, but seven of their 13 horses have placed.
Race 4
Save Melania
Ingleber
The dream continues
#9 Save Us Melania (3-1): He ran reasonably well on dirt in May and has done some flashy home drills for a high-probability track. This is far from the strongest track at this level, and the easy outside gate is a big plus. #3 Ingle Bells (6-1): He showed speed in his debut at a stable where debutants often need a race to get into shape. Drop down a class, add Lasix, and expect him to make some serious progress in second. #8 The Dream Continues (10-1): He made his debut on the outside turf out of Wilson Chute, which is not an easy course for a first-timer. Ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., he is also starting second and has room to improve.
Race 5
Big Ego (MTO)
Catani
Mazzei
#8 CATTANI (2-1): He's protected in his first start since October, and while the rest is a concern, it's not a tough situation and I'd be sure to beat him in anything close to his only grass race so far. A steady 5-furlong workout in the southern part of the state shows he's ready. Also, having Flavien Prat in the mix is a plus. #10 MAZZEI (5-1): He's coming off a turf sprint and will likely take the lead early by default. The outside is a challenge, but he could be comfortable at the front against a lot of horses who aren't too interested in passing others. #2 JUDGE RULES (9/2): He was pretty far out on the outside last time out and that unfortunate race development may have dampened his form. He's had two good starts at this level with a 2nd place finish and has been at this level for quite some time, but can't be completely written off.
Race 6
Quick
Trango Tower
Trading Strategies
#6 QUICKICK (6-1): Sold for $550,000 as a yearling and has some very strong work ahead of her debut. Her dam is a Grade 3 winner with nine wins (including three stakes races) and may be even better as a broodmare. #8 TRANGO TOWER (9/2): One of two horses trained by Chad Brown that were bred as runners. Daughter of Curlin and out of multiple stakes winner Lewis Bay. Seven furlongs is a tough distance for a debut, but judging by her pedigree, it's not too far. #4 TRADING STRATEGY (5/2): Sold for $500,000 at Keeneland last year and has been training steadily under Brown. It's notable that Flavien Prat landed here. Her lower pedigree includes third-generation mare Von Chatter, a horse that won multiple Grade 1 races during the season and earned Champion 2-Year-Old Filly honors.
Race 7
Riders Special
Nottoway
Beach Boy Al
#4 Rider's Special (7/5): 8/5 favorite against top competition, but bounced back quickly after misfiring. Linda Rice does this more than any other trainer and has had some success with the move. I think this is a formidable favorite considering this is a big drop in class. #3 Nottoway (12-1): Coming out of the Finger Lakes, this is always a race worth watching in the lower level claiming races, and if you draw a line under the misfiring three races ago with “struggled,” this horse isn't doing too badly in the race. This 15-time winner may not get much respect at the window, but he can win his best race if the chalk misfiring. #6 Beach Boy AL (7/2): I think he was in much tougher conditions than this event last time, but he never threatened the best winners. He's a closer in races with speed, and depending on how the race unfolds, he may be given a chance to bounce back.
Race 8
Balaiye (MTO)
Mansa Musa
Yellow Card
#7 Mansa Musa (5/2): He gave Star of Mystery his all in the Grade 3 Quick Call last time out, but there's no shame in him finishing second to a very talented horse. There are two very strong races at this track, one of which is where some horses really shine, and he looks like a horse that can win at Mahoney. #3 Yellow Card (6-1): He was very impressive in his last turf debut, and although he's up a class this time around, I think he's found what he wants to do. Irad Ortiz Jr. is riding for a trainer who is serious about it, and this horse seems to be trending in the right direction. #1 Fandom (7/2): He may have gotten off to a slow start in Quick Call. He was 6th out of 7 in the early going, so he probably had too much to do. He needs to catch up with my top pick, but he did beat two of his rivals at Keeneland's Palisades Race Track.
Race 9
It's Money
Anthracite
Street Swag
#10 That's Money (9/5): Down a class after tiring out in the Mike Lee Stakes last time out. Maybe the muddy track that day didn't suit him, and maybe having to run without Lasix hurt him too. He was given Lasix this time around, which gave him an ideal draw with limited claiming company. #5 Anthracite (8-1): Winless for a while, but claimed by Linda Rice last time out and certainly has room to grow. First race in three months, and with new acquisitions, Rice is one of the best horses in the game. #2 Street Swag (8-1): Last time out, he ran well, leading the race from Wilson Chute and holding on to second place at odds of 11-1. Flavien Prat will ride him again. He may need to work a little harder off the start, but he may have found the right jockey for what he wants to do.
Race 10
Ottoman fleet
Major Dude
Karl Spackler
#6 OTTOMAN FLEET (8/5): Back-to-back stakes wins and a big one for the powerhouses in the G1 Four Star Dave. Versatile enough, fast enough to get in the lead and kicking enough to chase and pounce, giving Flavien Prat plenty of options. #3 MAJOR DUDE (8-1): Won two stakes races last season and comes in third here as reserve for Todd Pletcher. His last win was very good and he's up in class, but his 2023 results show he can handle it and the morning line price strikes me as an overlay. #4 CARL SPACKLER (9/5): Will be a decent amount of money moving after his win at the G3 Kelso last month, but I have some concerns. At his best he'll be in position, but I don't think he got much at Kelso, where he won with a flawless ride from Tyler Gaffalione. He may need to hit a career-best shot to win the prize, but given the likely low price tag I can't get too enthusiastic.
Race 11
Carson's Run
Deterministic
Legend of Time
#4 CARSON'S RUN (8-1): This is an example of one of my favorite angles, the “toss 2” play. Toss the race just before and just after a long rest and suddenly you have a horse with three impressive wins in four starts. The Grade 1 Saratoga Derby requires speed and I think this one is booming. #6 DETERMINISTIC (9/2): Well adapted to the turf last race, finishing second in the Grade 3 Manila Downstate. The winner that day returned to win another graded stakes race. This horse has a good chance of continuing to progress in his second start on the turf. #1 LEGEND OF TIME (5/2): Will almost certainly be a heavy favorite given the dropouts of a few horses, but I've never been crazy about him. He didn't capitalize on an ideal race development in his last Grade 1 Belmont Derby and while those connections are worthy of respect, his performance doesn't overwhelm his competitors.
First published: August 10, 2024, 6pm
