SARATOGA SPRINGS, New York —
Bankroll: $1,852
Unfortunately, it has happened again: Saratoga Race Course's 11 races on Sunday do not include any on the two-turn dirt course, although it does include two races out of Wilson Chute and there is a chance of more racing on that track if the rain forecast proves correct.
Saratoga's two-turn dirt horse racing has enjoyed one of the best atmospheres in the sport for decades, but the good vibes are starting to fade. But this weekend, only two courses are scheduled, as opposed to the four two-turn dirt courses scheduled at Wilson Chutes.
I understand why Wilson Racetrack exists — there's nothing wrong with hosting a few races there each week for specialists who race the one-mile distance — but the current schedule has too many races, even before weather forces horses off the turf course.
There's a lot more to say, but the short answer is: NYRA, please stop doing this.
Saturday's result: Macaw never seemed to settle down and was eliminated in the fifth round. I lost $50.
Sunday betting: I'm excited to see how #4 VIGGIEDAL performs on the turf at Bolton Landing (Race 7). In addition to my $22 to win bet, I'll be placing a $4 ecstasy on VIGGIEDAL above #2 MIGHTY ERIU, #5 ME GOVERNOR and #8 ABIENTOT, plus a $2 “saver” ecstasy on VIGGIEDAL below those horses.
Total bet: $40.
Best bet: Squire Creek, Race 5
Longshot: Claire's Charm, Race 1
Race 1
Claire's Charm
Pletcher Entry
Briland
#3 Claire's Charm (6-1): Her debut is a close race, but she's bred to do well. She's a half-sister to multiple G1 winner Mus, and her July 27 five-furlong gate drill suggests she has a lot of potential. Pletcher Entries (7/5): I'm going with #1 Ice Cream Boat, a half-sister to 2-year-old G1 winner Chocolate Gelato. She's been training well under Hall of Fame trainer John Velazquez and has won a number of races. #5 Briland (5/2): Sold at the OBS sale earlier this year for $675,000, and she drilled very well, running four furlongs from the gate in 47 seconds flat on August 4. If there's any hesitation here, it's because I think she might want to go a little longer than the six furlongs given her pedigree.
Race 2
Taco Lady (MTO)
Jitterbug
Past tense
#2 JITTERBUG (2-1): She ran well to second in a similar race last month and is a big one given her experience on the marathon turf. However, another close loss is concerning and I think this could be a “now or never” race. #9 PAST TENSE (9/2): She set the pace last time out at 1.5 miles but dropped back to third. The slight reduction in distance should be beneficial for her and the change to jockey Flavien Prat is a big one. #7 QUITE CONTINENTAL (12-1): First start for jockey Safi Joseph and stretching out to the marathon distance she was bred to like. She will definitely need to improve from her last three starts but I think she has a good chance of taking a step forward and is worth considering even at the reduced odds.
Race 3
Banking frenzy
Donegal on the rise
Maker's Candy
#3 BANK FRENZY (7/2): Looks like he was the star of the early speed in the Evan Shipman Stakes and is well positioned in this Wilson Shoot event, with a few pounds to spare from the high weights here. This horse has one way to go and I think he has a great chance to come out on top of this group. #5 DONEGAL SURGES (9/5): Runner-up in the Commentator in June and continues to be ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr. Positioning is not ideal and he doesn't have the speed to make a run early, but there is enough class behind and this horse should benefit from a meltdown. #4 MAKER'S CANDY (3-1): He came in very well late last year but was last seen in an off-turf race at this track with an unthreatening third place. With Luis Saez on board, I expect this horse to be active early and I think he has the best chance of being ridden closer to my top choice.
Race 4
Tommy Two Socks (MTO)
Inflationary nation
Playground Legends
#10 Inflation Nation (5/2): Dropped in for the tag after following an allowance group that looks very tough at this level. The winner of the day has run some very good races on this route and anything close to this horse's 2023 performance will definitely make him the horse to beat. #2 Playground Legend (6-1): Won the Flavian Prat after traveling wide on his last local debut. He's another horse that dropped down a class to run here and showed the ability to overtake others late on which is definitely a plus. #9 Creesa (8-1): A distant second last time at this level but has run some of the best races of his career on this route. The jockey change to Jose Ortiz is a big one and his price isn't as high as it was a few weeks ago but he's still worth it.
Race 5
Squire Creek
I don't have money
Didinger
#5 Squire Creek (7/2): Won this course from finish to finish last time and seems to be the main speed here again. Has proven to be very hard to catch when he gets out in the lead and I think he will do the same here. #4 I Got No Manny (5/2): Raced for the first time since March 2023 and was narrowly defeated last time, but definitely has room to improve. Looking for his first win since August 2021, but most of his races so far have been against much tougher opponents. #7 Didinger (10-1): Went wide at the back last time and ended up with too much to do. However, if he can repeat his two consecutive wins at Parkes he may have a chance to win this race for a bit of an expense.
Race 6
Lucky and gorgeous
Dubawi Wawy
Madam Laoban
#11 LUCKY AND GORGEOUS (6-1): A poor start last time out, a very slow pace that left her at the back meant she was never going to win. She didn't give up too badly in her two races, but a stumble in her last race could see her odds rise in a crowded race. #6 DUBAWI WOWIE (6-1): Given her relative inexperience, she has room to improve and didn't lose much to my top pick in her last race. I think she would benefit from some pace up front too, and will benefit from it. #2 LADY LAOBAN (7/2): Down a class and challenging the tag for the first time. Not a big step down at state-bred level and I may have bet a little too much as a result, but there are certainly no monsters here and I think Flavien Prat is a good fit to ride again.
Race 7
Vigidal
Ambient
Mighty Eliu
#4 VIGGIEDAL (9/2): She ran very sharply in her debut, but was a 2-1 favorite in the Schuylerville Stakes, which ended in failure. Her last two turf races have shown that she prefers the turf. If she runs anywhere near her debut she has a chance, and if she moves up the ranks (which is quite possible) she's a big overlay in the morning line odds. #8 ABIENTOT (4-1): She won a diploma on this course last time, beating what I thought was a decent group of horses. Both this trainer and jockey have had a lot of success in this race, and she has shown she can overtake others in the closing stages, which is rare for a 2-year-old sprinter. #2 MIGHTY ERIU (5/2): She's coming from Europe and could be bet on that basis, but I have my doubts. She's been up against better horses, but her last run in the Newmarket Stakes was disappointing. It's possible that she'll be better than this Bolton Landing group, but her projected price isn't worth it.
Race 8
Neptune Beach
Burning Beauty
Senegal
#2 Neptune Beach (6-1): Returning to dirt after the ultimate equipment change, both of which seem like positives. Plus, he's very logical with a good bracket, a strong gate rider, and being matched up against horses who don't seem interested in passing others. #6 Burning Beauty (5/2): Another recent gelding who dropped into the tag for the first time. These connections are certainly worthy of respect, and in a field full of horses who have struggled for a long time, this one at least has some reasons to move forward. #4 Senegal (8-1): Perhaps this final run after nearly a year off was necessary. He was bred for the extra distance he could get, adding Lasix for the first time, and honestly, one of the horses here should run third in a race that doesn't inspire much enthusiasm.
Race 9
Super Chief
Blue Plate Special
Dark Magic
#8 SUPER CHIEF (7/2): He's dropped down a lot in class since chasing Squire Creek last time. He ran for a $50,000 tag that day, but his claiming price this day is less than a third of that. This could be seen as a red flag, but he wasn't awful last time and has enough past performance to know he's a horse that can win. #2 BLUE PLATE SPECIAL (8-1): A deep closer running first in a Joe Sharp claiming. He probably lost all chances in his last race, but he certainly seems to have the speed he can appreciate and catch up on. #4 MAGIA NERA (4-1): His last race was incredibly awful, so I have no problem drawing the line. Brad Cox claimed him in this race, but he's one of the best horses in the game when it comes to new acquisitions.
Race 10
Enfuega
Corn Jindhoti
Foxy Cara
#2 ENFUEGA (4-1): Returning from a turf failure, I'm going to pass on this one completely. A sharp performance two races ago, where she held on after some early action, looks set to be a standout from the start again. #6 A MAIZE ZING DOTIE (7/2): Has been active in the Finger Lakes, winning 8 of 20 races. Coming into this race on a 3-race win streak, which seems like quite a jump for her class, but deserves some respect. #8 FOXY CARA (4-1): Hasn't won in a while, but basically runs the same race every time. A lot of the favorites in this race want to get in early. She seems like one of the few runners who are catching up, which means she could be the one you have to hold back late in the race.
Race 11
Rocco Strong (MTO)
Bourbon Day
Always in danger
#10 Bourbon Day (5/2): Finished second in his home debut after a late comeback, but is down a class slightly for Sunday's final race. Flavien Prat will ride him again under jockey Brad Cox, and I think he's the most likely winner despite being on the outside. #5 Ever Danger (8-1): Hasn't raced in over a year and hasn't won in a few races, but returns protected from claims. This is the angle I want to see. It suggests that the people involved don't want to lose this horse, and this confidence from a savvy field means I need to use him. #2 Marlwad (6-1): Down a class significantly, as he was one of the better turf horses at Gulfstream Park not long ago. He ran in two graded stakes races over the winter, and while his best may be behind him, he may not need to fully return to that form to do well here.
First published: August 17, 2024, 6pm
