Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
August 19, 2024, 3:00 PM EDT
Line: Jessica Pegula +186 / Aryna Sabalenka -235
(Get the latest betting odds)
Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula will face off in the tennis 2024 Cincinnati Open final on Monday. Here are our Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula predictions. This article contains our Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula picks.
Aryna Sabalenka betting predictions
Aryna Sabalenka is fresh off a straight sets win over Iga Swiatek in 18 games. In the win, Sabalenka won 67% of her first serve points and 63% of her second serve points. Sabalenka won 60% of her service points and converted 5 of 15 break points. Sabalenka had a 52% first serve success rate and hit 5 aces. Sabalenka has yet to drop a set in the tournament and her last 7 wins have come in straight sets. Sabalenka is looking to win her second title of the year and 15th of her career. Sabalenka is 1-3 in finals this year and 14-14 overall. She is 5-2 in WTA 1000 finals and 12-6 in hard court finals. Sabalenka has won 8 of her last 10 matches on hard courts.
Jessica Pegula's betting preview
Jessica Pegula is coming off a three-set win against Paula Badosa that took 26 games. In this win, Pegula won 67% of her first-serve points and 49% of her second-serve points. Pegula won 60% of her service points and converted 5 of 11 break points. Pegula won 62% of her first serves in play and had 5 aces. Pegula has played 6 sets and about 5 hours of tennis in her last two matches, so it will be interesting to see how much energy she has left. Pegula will be looking to win her third title of the year and the seventh of her career. Pegula is 2-0 in final appearances this year and 6-6 in final appearances overall in her career. Pegula is 3-1 in WTA 1000 final appearances and 5-4 in hard court final appearances.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula H2H
Sabalenka is 4-2 against Pegula and has won four of their last five meetings, the last time in Cancun last year, where Pegula won in 19 games. The last five meetings have been decided in straight sets. The only time they have gone to a full set was in 2020, when Pegula won the first match in Cincinnati.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Prediction
Pegula clearly has the ability to win this match and has the advantage of the home crowd. The problem is that she has too many dips in her play to be reliable. She starts strong but then loses 3-4 games in a row. That's why she plays three-set matches in a row. Against a player as consistent and motivated as Sabalenka, if Pegula has too many dips in her play, she'll quickly find herself out of work. Sabalenka should also have a fair amount of success against Pegula's second serve.
I expect Sabalenka to win her second title of the year and to save her energy for victory by winning in straight sets.
