Ben Gamel comes into this game on a hitting streak… a three-game hitting streak. You can't expect much more than this. Aaron Nola should make fun of him at the plate.
August 27, 2024 • 12:18 ET • 4 min read
Tonight marks the second of a three-game series between the Houston Astros and the Philadelphia Phillies, but the Astros' offense struggled to score last night.
Ben Gamel had one of Houston's eight hits in the series opener, but I don't expect him to be successful tonight in my Astros vs Phillies predictions, and you'll find out why in my August 27 MLB Predictions.
Astros vs Phillies predictions
My best bet
Ben Gamel – Under 0.5 total bases (+110 at bet365)
Best odds available in your area
My Analysis
For me, there are some bets that are “close” in both side and total bets, such as chasing the first 5 under in two consecutive games, or taking value on the money line on the Houston Astros, but with enough of a playable edge to earn these as standalone bets. With that in mind, I turned to the MLB player props market.
Ben Gamel is on the longest hitting streak of the season, but the numbers aren't spectacular. He's got three, and he hasn't had that streak in almost two years. I think that streak ends tonight, especially considering he's a higher risk to pinch-hit than other players, since he's been pinch-hit in three of his last four starts.
He'll also benefit from facing Aaron Nola in as many as three at-bats. Like many of baseball's best pitchers, Nola has been improving as the postseason approaches.
He got off to a rough start against the Atlanta Braves (not that it's too bad for rooting for him), but prior to that he had five straight starts of five or more innings with two earned runs or less, so look for him to outdo Gamel here.
Gamel is one of the hitters on Houston's roster who struggles with the curveball the most, so we're going to see a number of different curveball variations from Nola, including a knuckle curve and a regular curve.
Coming into this game, the veteran had the third-highest strikeout rate against the curve, the worst batting average and the second-worst wOBA. That's a big problem against a pitcher like Nola, who throws the curveball the most and uses it most frequently as a pitch to get outs due to its effectiveness.
This is one of my favorite bets in the game, and while there are various ways to win the prize, judging by past examples, it couldn’t be worth much more than that.
Astros vs Phillies Same Game Parlay (SGP)
Ben Gamel Total bases under 0.5
Less than 9.5
I know Justin Verlander hasn't been his typical pitcher in his last few starts and Nola has struggled himself, but just like last night, I'm expecting both veteran, future Hall of Fame pitchers to perform in what will be a very important series for both teams.
It also doesn't help that neither team has a player who has historically shown a huge advantage over the other on the mound.
Learn how to bet on parlays on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Phillies odds
Astros vs Phillies live odds
Astros vs Phillies opening odds
Money Line: Houston +136 | Philadelphia -162 Run Line: Houston +1.5 (-152) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+126) Over/Under: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)
Astros vs. Phillies Money Line and Over/Under Analysis
The under in these matchups continues to be profitable. They won last night and have now won eight straight head-to-head games. Houston is 5-5 in their last 10 games, costing bettors a small loss of -1.22 units. In the same period, Philadelphia has won 6 of their last 10 games, costing bettors a profit of just over 1 unit. The Phillies have been strong in these head-to-head matches, winning 3 of their last 4 games.
Astros vs Phillies
The Houston Astros have covered the run line in 43 of their last 73 games (+15.40 units / 16% ROI). Explore more Astros vs Phillies MLB betting trends.
Astros vs Phillies game info
Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA Date and Time: Tuesday, August 27, 2024 First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET TV: SCHN, NBCS-Philadelphia Astros Starting Pitcher: Justin Verlander
(3-3, 3.92 ERA) Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
(11 wins, 6 losses, 3.45 ERA)
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