NFL football returned to our lives on Thursday night with three games scheduled for tonight.
The three best NFL bets center around two games: first in Miami, where Michael Pennis Jr. will play on a professional field for the first time, and then we head north to Baltimore, where the Ravens will be looking to bounce back after losing two straight preseason games dating back to last August. (You might be wondering “why does that matter,” but Baltimore had won 24 straight games before losing those two games.)
Let's get started.
Best NFL preseason bets for Friday night
Matt Trevy's best NFL bets: Atlanta QB-dominant
Matt Trevy
The purpose of preseason games is to bet on the quarterback, and that's what I'm doing with this Falcons vs Dolphins matchup.
Mike White is a below-average backup, and what Skylar Thompson can and can't do became clear two seasons ago when the Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa suffered a late injury.
We'll likely see a lot more from Thompson, who averaged 6.4 yards per attempt during extended preseason play last season and recorded three touchdowns and four interceptions on 24, 22 and 16 pass attempts in Miami's three preseason games.
Meanwhile, Michael Pennis Jr. is a bit of an unknown. He was a strange choice to be selected eighth overall in this year's draft, but no one doubts his arm talent. He's shown flashes of brilliance in camp, and at 24 years old, he should be able to adjust well in the preseason.
Penix's backup will be Taylor Heinicke, and while Heinicke has seen enough of a starter in the regular season to be little more than a backup, I would prefer him over White.
For my money, I think the Falcons have the two best quarterbacks in this game, and I'd bet on anything but a field goal.
Pick: Falcons -2.5 (-110)
Sam Farley's best NFL bets: Back Harbaugh's preseason record
Sam Farley
The rationale isn't particularly sophisticated, but it's hard to ignore John Harbaugh's 44-14 preseason record, which includes a 40-18 record against the spread.
Sure, the Ravens had a losing record last summer, but that's not as indicative of his preseason track record as the records he's put up since 2008. With Lamar Jackson out, Harbaugh may not use his entire starter lineup, but he'll have his team ready to compete and ready to take on the Eagles in this game.
When Nick Sirianni has only one win and two covers in nine preseason games, just follow the herd and take Harbaugh.
Pick: Ravens +1.5 (-110)
John Lanfranca's best NFL bets: Betting on Eagles vs. Ravens total points
John Lanfranca
Harbaugh often rests starters during the preseason, but the Ravens rotate through three starters up front, which could lead to key offensive linemen practicing early in the game. As for the Eagles, new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is expected to run a fast-paced attack that should speed up the pace of games no matter who the quarterback is.
My main reason for criticizing the point total for this game is simply because I think it is a few points too low. The market for preseason games has not been fully corrected since the shortened preseason schedule was implemented.
In Week 1 of the 2023 preseason, 12 of 16 games saw 35 or more points recorded. There are a number of possible reasons for this, but with fewer practice sessions during the preseason, teams are feeling a bit more urgency to get meaningful offensive snaps on tape.
Ultimately, every game played between the Ravens and Eagles in the 2023 preseason, including games between the two teams, exceeded this total.
This total should be closer to 37.5.
Pick: 34 or more (-112)
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