What will the next presidential campaign look like? – Let me take a risk and say that this time the dark horse will most likely be Slawomir Mentzen – said sociologist Dr. Hab. Carolina Vigura. Doctor of Sciences. Rafal Chvedoruk, when asked if the Confederation could break the poll's predictions, replied that “even if so, it will be our horse instead of a dark horse”.
The guests of “Fact po factch” on Thursday are Dr. Khab. Karolina Vigura – sociologist, historian of ideas and publicist (University of Warsaw, “Kultura liberalna”) and candidate of science. Rafal Chwedoruk, political scientist at the Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, University of Warsaw.
They discussed, among other things, the presidential campaign, which may begin in mid-January, and the ongoing campaign. The National Election Commission published a position according to which the Speaker of the Seimas can hold presidential elections on January 15 as soon as possible. The election campaign will begin after the publication of the marshal's decision.
Who is the dark horse of this election?
Diana Rudnick asked the pundits if they expected any dark horses to emerge in the presidential race. – Let me take a risk and say that this time the dark horse is most likely Slavomir Mentzen. This is the candidate who is the voice of people dissatisfied with polarization, disappointed with Law and Justice and disappointed with the first year of Donald Tusk's government – said Dr. Hab. Carolina Vigura.
He also noted that “among the current main parties there is no reasonable proposal for entrepreneurs.” – Many entrepreneurs may be encouraged by the fact that Mr. Mentzen is trying to hide his nationalist tendencies under the guise of: we are a free market here, we are interested in entrepreneurs, – he said.
The Confederation will fight for the votes of entrepreneurs TVN24
Doctor of Sciences. Rafal Chvedoruk, when asked if the Confederation could break the poll predictions, replied that “even if so, he will be our horse instead of a dark horse.” – He is a well-known candidate who works within the party system. However, I think that the issue of entrepreneurs is a myth. An entrepreneur is both a person who is a big player in the stock market and a person who owns a grocery store. I think there are many other interested parties, stronger than the Confederation, who will try to reach different segments of these voters, – said the political expert.
“This campaign is always going on in our country”
Although according to Dr. Hab, the official presidential campaign will begin in mid-January. Karolina Vigura “the election campaign in our country continues all the time”. – It ends almost on the election day, when we have already voted, and it starts on the same day, – said the expert.
– If we look at all the elections that took place this year around the world, we will see that in fact, election campaigns are always taking place, because the media that operate and we are the recipients of them have completely changed. Now elections are won with social networks – the best example is the victory of Donald Trump in the USA, but also the elections in Romania – he added.
“Our campaign in our country is always going on”TVN24
He also assessed that this campaign is mainly on the Internet, “it has good and bad aspects.” “We know very well that social networks allow us to reach new groups of people, but on the other hand it could be like in Romania, where they use the influence of Russia and hundreds of new TikTok accounts to win elections ,” said Dr. Hab. Vigura.
“We are in an unusual phase of Christmas”
Doctor of Sciences. Rafal Chvedoruk, for his part, said that “we are now at the stage of an unusual Christmas, when politicians, despite the large turnout of voters, try to pretend that they are not professional politicians, not a fictional political class, but just a class are ordinary citizens.” – The presidential campaign will, of course, be very interesting in terms of form, because it is an Americanized element of our politics. (…) The chances of the head of state in Poland are much smaller than in the United States, for example, – said the expert.
He also assessed that Poland has an “extremely stable party system”. – It is already known that this presidential campaign in Poland will follow the formula: Rafal Trzaszkowski, long, nothing, PiS candidate (Karol Nawrocki – ed.) long, nothing and three candidates: Szymon Holounia, Magdalena Biejat and Slawomir . Mentzen – said the guest of “Facti po factach”.
Two important things in 2025
According to both experts, important aspects of the upcoming elections will also be the presidency of Poland in the European Union and the accession of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States. – We must remember that at least two important things will happen in 2025. First of all, this is the issue of the presidency of the European Union and the slogan that Donald Tusk's cabinet constantly promotes, that is, security. The second piece of the puzzle is Donald Trump in the presidency in Washington and his plans for Ukraine, Dr. Hab said. Carolina Vigura.
– Now the question is whether Donald Tusk and his cabinet were able to convince the most important European countries that Europe will play its important role in ensuring the security of Ukraine against Vladimir Putin and how it will be accepted by the voters – he added.
Main photo source: TVN24
