Annabelle Liang
Journalist
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Vietnam’s PM said he “golf all day” with Trump
Countries around the world are prepared for the so-called “Donald Trump’s release day in America !!!” Next week.
The deadline of the American president to impose reciprocal prices on trade partners will come only a few days after hitting foreign car manufacturers with 25% import tax.
Vietnam could be particularly vulnerable to Trump’s last salvo. He has a large trade deficit with the United States and benefited from companies that have left China factories to avoid the measures announced during his first mandate.
While some countries have retaliated in Washington, the Prime Minister of Vietnam, Pham Minh Chinh, suggested that he could adopt a more diplomatic approach.
Speaking in January, he said he was ready to visit Trump’s Mar-A-Lago in Florida and “Golf all day” if that “benefits” to his country, pulling laughter in the room.
Would it work?
“Bamboo” economy
Trump has already said that Vietnam was “worse than China” and “almost the worst abuser of anyone”.
But he has not yet targeted Vietnam with prices, even if he has the third larger trade deficit with the United States, after China and Mexico.
Analysts say that Vietnam is doing well with Washington – but its efforts may still not be sufficient to avoid most of Trump’s pricing plans.
“The Prime Minister of Vietnam seems to take a page of (former Japanese PM) Shinzo Abe, who has established a close personal relationship with Trump on their shared golf love,” said Stephen Olson, a former American commercial negotiator.
“However, I would not expect a special treatment of Vietnam from a political point of view. Personal relationships are important for Trump, but in this case, I think that his desire to seem hard on trade will prevail.”
Vietnam said that it did not plan to “restrict trade” with the United States, although it is currently taxing certain imports from there.
The government said this week that it will allow SpaceX, which belongs to Close Trump Ally Elon Musk, to exploit its Internet service by Satellite Starlink in the country for testing.
Some analysts consider this as one of the measures taken by Vietnam to avoid being struck by American prices.
Hanoi also said that this would reduce prices on several American imports, including energy and cars, a decision to “improve trade sales”.
It occurred less than two weeks after Vietnamese and American companies have signed more than $ 4 billion (5.4 billion pounds sterling) in fields, in areas such as oil and gas exploration.
Steve Norris of advice control risks said that “Vietnam takes care to avoid any movement that would signal any non-cooperation on commercial issues”.
This strategy is in accordance with its approach to foreign policy – known as “bamboo diplomacy”. Like plant shoots that swing with the wind, Vietnam hopes to be adaptable to foreign pressures.
“If the United States had to increase the pressure on Vietnam, the government could respond with offers to facilitate investments in the hotel and casino industries, entering advanced machines and – capturing the moment – Consider access to the minerals of rare Vietnam earth,” said Norris.
What about China?
A large factor working against Vietnam is concerns about the influence of China.
Vietnam was one of the greatest beneficiaries of American-Chinese tensions during Trump’s first term.
In 2018, he hit China with prices, which rethought some companies where they manufactured their products. Some have chosen to move manufacturing to Vietnam.
This has led to an increase in exports from Vietnam to the United States, with Chinese companies that moved production to this figure there.
Reuters
Vietnam benefited from American-Chinese tensions during Trump’s first mandate as a function
Former American commercial negotiator, Wendy Cutler, said that Vietnam has become a “destination for major Chinese investment”.
While the United States remains the largest export market in Vietnam, China is its largest supplier of goods, representing more than a third of imports, according to the latest official data.
Chinese companies were also behind almost a new in three investment in Vietnam last year.
“These are huge red flags for Trump. I expect Vietnam to be at some point by prices,” said Olson.
However, Vietnam prices could have an impact on American companies such as Apple and Intel technological companies, and the giant of Nike sports clothes, which have moved production lines from China to Vietnam.
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Trump and the former Japanese leader Shinzo Abe shared a golf love
A recent investigation by the American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam has revealed that most American manufacturers expect to dismiss staff if prices are imposed.
The American president believes that the samples will strengthen the economy of his country by encouraging more companies to make goods in the United States and to bring billions of dollars in taxes.
But many economists have warned that it could force prices for American consumers and have a negative impact on world trade.
What comes next?
Washington is also concerned about the so -called “transitages” – Chinese products passing through Vietnam on their way to other countries.
The American authorities have “discreetly underlined Vietnam that it must reduce its trade surplus over time and fight the transit of Chinese products across the country,” said Norris.
Vietnam Prime Minister said he was convinced that his administration can “manage relations with the United States”.
Now that the Southeast Asian Nation has reduced certain prices on American products, they can be more attractive to Vietnamese consumers, increasing the share of America with the country.
And then there is golf course – playing a game with Trump had worked for the late Japanese leader Shinzo Abe.
Abe and Trump have established a friendship, which included many golf games over several years. Friendship undoubtedly helped Abe to obtain tariff exemptions for the Japan critical cars industry at the time.
For the moment, it is not clear if Vietnam will really give a swing on golf diplomacy.
The real test will come next week, when a new list of Trump taxes should take effect.
