For decades, Russia, China and Western powers have competed for influence in Central Asia. But despite ambitions to expand their presence in the strategically important region, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan are focused on strengthening regional relations to their own advantage.
Russia, once a major player in Central Asia, has somewhat lost its foothold in the region as a result of the war in Ukraine. Now China, Turkey and the European Union are seeking to strengthen their positions in Central Asia. Energy resources are of great importance to the countries, as the region contains approximately 20% of the world's uranium reserves, 17.2% of its oil and 7% of its natural gas.
Regional leaders signed a series of documents that should help countries develop joint economic and energy projects.
Recognizing this bounty, regional leaders, especially those of energy-rich countries, are seeking to position their countries as key players in adjusting the international political and economic architecture. Regional leaders have signed a series of documents that should help countries develop joint economic and energy projects, from implementing the Green Agenda to further developing the Trans-Caspian international shipping route, also known as the Central Corridor. In June, the presidents of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan gathered in Astana for regular talks.
Kazakhstan, the event's host, has already launched a number of initiatives to foster regional integration and cooperation: In December 2022, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a partnership agreement, while Astana is already nominally allied with other Central Asian states (except for permanently neutral Turkmenistan) through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
President Tokayev stressed that “it is particularly urgent to build a regional security architecture, including by creating an inventory of security risks in Central Asia and developing measures to prevent them.”
Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (left) and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev (right) speak at a press conference on March 11, 2024 (Official website of the Presidency of Azerbaijan)
Kazakhstan authorities have already developed a “Central Asia 2040 Strategy” for developing regional cooperation, the adoption of which could have conceptual significance for the region. In line with its pragmatic foreign policy, Astana actively promotes cooperation, dialogue and prosperity among all sides, rather than competition.
As President Tokayev has repeatedly stated, Kazakhstan aims to replace the “Great Game” – the 19th century competition between the British and Russian empires for influence in Central Asia – with “great gains for all at the heart of Eurasia.” Astana’s efforts in this area have the potential to position the country as a regional leader.
Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Roman Vasilenko said that in a recent meeting between his boss, Murat Nurtouleu, and the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, the European official said, “Kazakhstan was once on the fringe, but now it’s at the center of everywhere.” The Astana summit was another indication of Kazakhstan’s continued rise as a middle power.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's participation in the summit and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio's planned meetings with Central Asian leaders (though his visit to Astana was postponed due to an earthquake warning and will be left to the discretion of his successor) are clear indications that both countries want to forge closer ties with Central Asia. Tokyo is reportedly seeking to counter growing Chinese influence in the region and open new markets for its economy, while Baku's interests in Central Asia remain primarily energy-related.
The European Union is seeking to end, or at least significantly reduce, its dependence on Russian energy and sees Central Asia as an important producer of “green electricity” as well as fossil fuels.
The European Union is looking to end, or at least significantly reduce, its dependence on Russian energy, and sees Central Asia as an important producer of “green electricity” and not just fossil fuels. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan recently agreed to set up a joint venture to export green energy to Europe. But this is a long-term process. In the meantime, the three countries need to develop their own green energy sectors and lay undersea cables from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea and back to Europe.
As Tokayev noted, the construction of the Kambarata-1 hydroelectric plant in Kyrgyzstan and the Rogun hydroelectric plant in Tajikistan could be the region's “energy projects of the century.” But while energy is expected to remain a major driver of foreign policy for Central Asian states, maintaining peace and stability in the region amid geopolitical uncertainty is likely to be the top priority in the coming months and years.
However, that does not mean that Kazakhstan or Moscow’s other Central Asian CSTO partners will soon leave the Russian-dominated organization. The recent Russian incursion into the Kursk region of Ukraine shows that the CSTO exists only on paper, and that none of its members intend to get involved and defend their nominal ally, Russia, but for the time being, the Central Asian states will continue to take a pragmatic approach and try to maintain good relations with Moscow.
The fact that the Central Asian leaders spoke in Russian during the summit in Astana and all official signs during the meeting were in both Kazakh and Russian indicates that the departure from Moscow's geopolitical orbit will be a long and very slow process.