A leading Chinese scholar has criticised the United States and its allies, saying Asia is in danger of becoming a “powder keg” that could spark World War III.
Cheng Yung-nian, a professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong's Shenzhen campus, warned that China would become the “eye of the storm” as the United States shifts its strategic focus within NATO, and that nuclear tensions on the Korean peninsula could also trigger a crisis.
“The United States claims to bring peace to Asia under its leadership, but the reality is quite the opposite. Asia under US domination is fast moving towards war,” he said in the post, which was first published on WeChat's public platform last week.
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The commentary came just days before US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan visits China for a “strategic dialogue” with Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Zheng argued that the Asia-Pacific region is destined to be a battleground for a future world war because it contains all the key elements: economic interests, U.S. involvement, efforts to establish an Asian equivalent of NATO, military modernization, and nationalism.
The United States and China have tried to prevent tensions from boiling over but remain deeply divided over a range of issues from trade and technology to space, with the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait remaining major potential flashpoints.
Beijing considers Taiwan to be part of its territory and must be reunited with mainland China, by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent country, but Washington opposes any attempt to seize it by force and is legally obligated to supply Taiwan with weapons to help it defend itself.
Cheng Yung-nien says Asia is the ingredient that will spark a major war. Photo: Edward Wong alt= Cheng Yung-nien says Asia is the ingredient that will spark a major war. Photo: Edward Wong>
Zheng said the United States has “deeper roots in Asia” than any other country and is becoming a “major organizer” of conflicts in the region.
He added that since the United States “pivot to Asia” in late 2011, it has formed at least seven “smaller multilateral” alliances aimed at countering China, without specifying which agreements he was referring to.
He also said a key priority for the United States was to bring about a “strategic shift” in NATO thinking to make China its main focus, and that this required major European countries to perceive China as a threat.
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Relations between China and the European Union have deteriorated in recent years amid major conflicts over issues including subsidies for electric vehicles, human rights and deepening ties between China and Russia.
Key EU member states such as France and Germany are also deepening their engagement in the Indo-Pacific region.
Zheng noted that while the United States claims it is acting to “contain” any conflict that might result from Chinese actions, in reality it is “building a framework for a global war.”
“China is undoubtedly the 'eye of the storm' in this geopolitical situation. Naturally, how to respond to such profound geopolitical changes is the most difficult challenge facing this generation,” he said.
NATO was founded after World War Two to prevent a Soviet invasion of Western Europe, but Zheng said NATO had “lost its claimed role as a peace envoy” and “become a full-fledged war instigator”.
He also warned that the US is currently trying to set up an Asian equivalent of NATO.
In recent years, the United States has deepened its network of alliances with countries such as the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea, while forming new groupings such as the Oakland-Australia alliance with the UK and Australia, and the Quad with Japan, India, and Australia.
Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand were invited to a recent NATO summit, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying it was a move to “break down divisions between Europe, Asia and the United States”.
Jeong added that Japan plays a central role as a “proxy” for the United States and is becoming a bridge between Europe and Northeast Asia.
He said developments such as a recent mutual defense pact between Russia and North Korea were another factor, and that concerns about North Korea's nuclear weapons would prompt Japan, South Korea and the United States to strengthen defense ties.
While many observers linked this defense agreement to Russia's short-term need for weapons for use in Ukraine and North Korea's desire to acquire military technology, Chung said U.S. actions were another reason for this strategic adjustment.
He also warned that regional peace in Asia is fragile due to historical resentments and current conflicts, giving the United States more leverage.
Zheng said rising nationalism further increased the risk, arguing that “historically, nationalism has often been the main cause of conflicts and wars between nations. In the age of social media, decision-makers may be even more susceptible to nationalistic sentiments, which may lead to irrational decisions.”
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative news source on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP articles, visit the SCMP app or follow SCMP on Facebook. Twitter P a g e Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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