China's launch of a stealth-powered, state-of-the-art submarine underscores its drive to assert undersea dominance in increasingly tense waters in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
This month, Naval News reported that China's Wuhan shipyard launched a new, advanced non-nuclear submarine, marking a major advancement for China's naval power.
The submarine, which is larger than conventional submarines and features an innovative X-shaped rudder, was unveiled by naval expert Tom Shugart in July after being launched behind closed doors in April 2024, Naval News reported.
Importantly, the source said, the submarine may be fitted with a vertical launch system (VLS) for missiles, a rare feature on non-nuclear submarines. This addition would potentially allow the submarine to carry anti-ship ballistic missiles as well as land-attack missiles, improving its combat capability.
Navy News said the submarine's design suggests it is a derivative of the Type-039A-C Yuan-class currently in service with the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLA-N). The secrecy surrounding the launch and the submarine's capabilities reflects China's cautious approach to its military advancements, the report said.
Naval News said the submarine's arrival, if confirmed to be equipped with a VLS, could call into question the perception that China's conventional submarine force is regional and represent a breakthrough that could further contribute to China's growing naval power.
The Asia Times reported this month that China's new submarines' X-shaped rudders signal a major improvement in maneuverability and stealth capabilities that are crucial for operations in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
Despite China's capability to build nuclear submarines, its emphasis on conventional submarines reflects a strategic approach tailored to the unique operational demands of China's maritime environment.
The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) expects the PLA Navy's submarine fleet to expand significantly, projecting it to grow to 65 vessels by 2025 and 80 by 2035.
This growth is due to China's increasing submarine construction capabilities and the introduction of advanced anti-ship cruise missiles onto conventional submarines.
Adding a VLS to submarines would improve their offensive capability against well-defended surface combatants, Victor Sussman wrote in an October 2019 Proceedings article.
Sussman noted that during the 2018 Rim of the Pacific exercise, the USS Olympia effectively employed a submarine-launched anti-ship cruise missile (SLASCM), highlighting the strategic value of stealth submarines as potent ASCM platforms.
He said the integration of VLS-compatible missiles could significantly increase the size of a submarine's salvo, potentially giving it a tactical advantage in a saturation attack.Such missiles currently in service with China include the YJ-18 ASCM, the CJ-10 land attack cruise missile (LACM), and the YJ-83 ASCM.
Sussman stressed the importance of numerical superiority in a firefight, suggesting that larger volleys increase the chances of neutralizing enemy forces.
The future of submarine warfare is ripe for transformation, he noted, with VLS-equipped submarines positioned to launch more effective first-strike attacks and maintain a tactical advantage in an increasingly contested maritime domain.
China's rapidly advancing conventional submarine fleet could enable it to conduct complex blockades and preemptive strikes, shifting the balance in a Taiwan conflict and complicating allied intervention.
In a potential conflict over Taiwan, Gabriel Collins and Andrew Erickson say that China's conventional submarines would play a key role in establishing maritime dominance and exerting strategic pressure on Taiwan and its allies.
Collins and Erickson suggest stealth submarines could be crucial in isolating Taiwan and deterring foreign intervention, complicating efforts to secure communications lines.
They argue that Chinese submarines could disrupt Taiwan's resupply operations, bolster its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy, and make it harder for the United States and its allies to intervene effectively in the Taiwan Strait.
In the South China Sea, Edward Feltham wrote in an October 2023 article for the Canadian Naval Association that China's conventional submarines play a key role in implementing its maritime strategy, particularly its strategy of sea denial within the First Island Chain.
Feltham said the PLA Navy's modernization is focused heavily on enhancing the capabilities of diesel-electric submarines (SSKs) such as the Yuan-class, which are equipped with advanced air-independent propulsion (AIP) systems.
He noted that the submarines are designed to operate in the shallow, contested waters of the South China Sea, where their stealth and endurance give them a great advantage.
He noted that the primary role of these submarines is to target hostile ships with torpedoes and anti-ship cruise missiles, preventing them from controlling key sea areas.
Feltham also said the missiles could be deployed for intelligence, surveillance and covert operations, providing China with a powerful deterrent and a means of active engagement.
As China's submarine fleet expands to assert dominance in nearby waters, regional countries are rapidly upgrading their underwater capabilities, setting the stage for an underwater arms race.
In a June 2024 Breaking Defense article, Christopher Woody notes that in response to China's rapid military modernization, particularly the expansion of its submarine fleet, countries in the Indo-Pacific region are increasing their focus on undersea combat capabilities.
Woody said Taiwan's unveiling of its first domestically assembled Haikun-class submarine, with the help of an undisclosed foreign partner, marks an important step in efforts to bolster its defenses against potential Chinese aggression.
He noted that the diesel-electric Haikun is equipped with torpedo tubes for Mk 48 torpedoes and Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and future models may be equipped with submarine-launched anti-ship missiles.
Additionally, Japan continues to demonstrate its shipbuilding prowess by commissioning its latest Taigei-class diesel-electric attack submarine, the Jingei, with a stealthier design, improved sensors and lithium-ion batteries for increased endurance, he said.
Similarly, he noted that South Korea's new submarine, the Shin Chaeho, part of the Dosan Anchangho-class submarines, boasts advanced features such as domestically produced fuel cells and AIP systems, enhancing its underwater operational capabilities.
Southeast Asian countries are also upgrading their submarine capabilities, Woody said, noting that Singapore has launched the last of its Invincible-class diesel-electric submarines, designed for the region's special maritime environment.
He also said the Philippines and Indonesia have begun steps to acquire new submarines, reflecting a broader trend of regional militaries investing in undersea assets as a strategic hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and to maintain parity with neighboring nations' fleets.
This collective submarine buildup underscores the strategic importance of undersea warfare in a region where access to the sea is paramount, Woody said. The subs act as a deterrent and counterbalance to China's growing naval power.
Woody also noted that the trend highlights the role of submarines as a defense tool and a symbol of naval prestige in the Indo-Pacific region.
