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Falling prices for turkey and Brussels sprouts mean Christmas dinner will cost a little less at the supermarket checkout this year.
The price of Brussels sprouts has fallen by 12%, while a 4.55kg (10lb) frozen turkey will cost you £1.21 less than last year, a BBC study suggests.
But as we dug deeper, we discovered that the price of root vegetables had increased this year, after rainy weather delayed the planting season.
When all the trimmings are added up, a family Christmas is expected to cost £31.66 in 2024, down from last year's figure of £32.18. This reflects food prices rising at a slower rate over the past year as inflation in the UK has eased.
Cheaper turkey and Brussels sprouts
Tom Copas
Mr Copas said he was seeing increased demand for smaller turkeys this Christmas.
The annual price change for products from Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda, Morrisons, Aldi and Lidl was measured by retail tracking platform Assosia.
The crown of the Christmas holiday, the turkey, lost 6% this year, according to this data.
Tom Copas, managing director of Copas Turkeys in Cookham, Berkshire, said the price of turkeys had started to stabilize after an “incredibly turbulent” few years which had driven up the cost of raising his birds.
“So we see gradual changes in prices from year to year, rather than dramatic changes,” added Mr. Copas, whose family has been raising turkeys since 1957.
However, Copas says he has seen slowing sales and increased demand for smaller turkeys this year, perhaps indicating customers are tightening their belts.
“It’s possible that people are trying to reduce overall basket spending.”
Brussels sprouts were 12p cheaper for a 500g bag compared to last year.
Hot summers and sudden cold snaps of the previous two years made things difficult for growers, says John Inglis, senior sales manager at ESG Drysdale, one of the UK's largest sprout producers.
But he says this year has seen us return “to normal” after “a tough few seasons” and the sprouts are thriving again.
A difficult planting period for root vegetables
Tracy Bush
Tracy Bush and fellow Provenance Potatoes director Graeme Skinner
Root vegetables account for the biggest price variations in our Christmas shop.
Maris Piper potatoes have seen a huge 26% increase, with a typical 2kg bag going from £1.58 to £1.99.
Tracy Bush, co-director of Provenance Potatoes in Kent, says bad weather has a lot to do with the rise in potato prices in recent years.
“We had a particularly wet spring, so planting was difficult for root crops, and the fall, when the crops are lifted and harvested, was also very difficult,” she says.
Rodger Hobson
Rodger Hobson runs a family carrot farm in Yorkshire.
Carrot grower Rodger Hobson says the same wet weather has delayed this year's carrot planting season. Last year the weather was so bad that supermarkets had to import carrots. This year they have increased by 13.4% to 69p a kilo.
But Mr Hobson said he wouldn't be surprised if “during Christmas week they went down to 20p a kilo”.
Indeed, carrots are often chosen as a “leader product” in supermarkets. They are sold at a loss to encourage customers to spend on more profitable items.
Ged Futter is a retail specialist who was a buyer for Asda. He claims supermarkets slash their prices the week before Christmas.
“Every year they do the same thing,” he says, pointing out that supermarkets usually fight to attract customers with reduced prices on “potatoes, carrots, parsnips, Brussels beaks.”
Hobson says perishable products make good loss leaders because customers can't stockpile them when they're cheap. If supermarkets reduced the price of shelf-stable products like baked beans, shoppers might be tempted to buy their annual stock in December, he says.
Although loss leaders are good for buyers, Futter pointed out that these below-cost prices “do not show the true cost to the farmer” and can generate a lot of food waste.
“People think food production is cheap – that’s not true.”
This year, the price increase was not limited to the main meal: the price of Christmas desserts also increased.
Christmas pudding is 11% more expensive than in 2023, and mince pies are up 5%, according to Assosia research.
Jessica White, owner of Meg Rivers Artisan Bakery, says: “Our costs have indeed increased in terms of ingredients, packaging, wages and, like everyone else, electricity. » But she says her company has chosen not to raise prices this year.
They have already sold out of their Christmas puddings and have had to make more to fill the waiting list, she said. “We earn more and more every year and do not notice a drop in demand.”
How do supermarkets compare?
BBC News also investigated how the cost of a Christmas dinner could vary depending on where you shop.
We compared prices across the websites of the UK's five biggest supermarkets: Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda, Morrisons and Aldi.
Our one-day snapshot suggests Aldi was the cheapest supermarket for a basic list of Christmas essentials, at around £24.30.
Asda was second cheapest at £28.22, followed by Morrisons and Sainsbury's.
Tesco was the most expensive at £36.51. Last year our research suggested Morrisons was the most expensive, followed by Tesco in third.
Although we tried to find equivalent items across all five supermarkets, there are some slight differences in the size or type of products. The cost of your Christmas dinner can therefore vary depending on the supermarkets and the items you choose.
Prices will also vary as Christmas approaches, as competition in supermarkets becomes even fiercer.
Our BBC analysis should not be directly compared to price rise figures from retail analysis firm Assosia, as we both use a slightly different basket.
How to Save on Christmas Food
Start with a budget: plan ahead and add up hidden expenses, like foil to roast a turkey.
Write a food list: decide on your must-haves and what you couldn't miss. Bargain Hunting: Look for online deals as well as yellow sticker items that have been marked down. Use your freezer: Christmas foods that freeze well include butter, pieces of meat. and certain cheeses like cheddar. Join your friends and family: This means you can buy larger packs, which often offer better value for money.
Find out more about the BBC Food team here
