By Kurt Cobb – August 26, 2024, 1:00 PM CDT Two recent studies predict that climate change could cause a collapse of the Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning Centrifugal Force (AMOC) by mid-century. This collapse would dramatically reduce temperatures in Northern Europe and cause major disruptions, primarily due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which would introduce freshwater and disrupt the AMOC flow. Although urgent, current global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are not enough to prevent this potential catastrophe.
In recent years, scientists have been observing and measuring the flow of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning (AMOC), which Americans often call the Gulf Stream, but which is only one part of this vast ocean current. For a long time, it was believed that the AMOC, which carries tropical heat to Greenland, Iceland, and northern Europe, making those areas much warmer than they would be otherwise, would continue to flow with no end in sight.
However, two recent studies suggest that ocean currents may not only slow down, but stop completely around the middle of this century, causing a dramatic drop in temperatures in northern Europe. An earlier study from 2023 suggested that the collapse could occur between 2025 and 2095, a fairly long period of time, but just a blink of an eye in geological time. A more recent study published this year used more sophisticated models and narrowed the window for the collapse to 2037 to 2064. Both studies place the most likely time for the collapse in the middle of this century (2050 or 2057).
Rising temperatures due to climate change are causing a huge increase in meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet, which averages over a mile thick. This meltwater flows into the North Atlantic, making the water less saline and denser. The loss of density appears to slow ocean currents as they sink into the deeper ocean. This sinking is essential for ocean currents to continue flowing.
Meanwhile, in Northern Europe and other parts of the world, business as usual continues. Greenhouse gases are currently accumulating in the atmosphere at a record pace. Instead of addressing the climate crisis, humanity is acting as if it doesn't exist (in many places, leaders are paying lip service to doing something but doing nothing commensurate with the danger we face).
Cheerleaders for the so-called energy transition often say that carbon emissions have been “decoupled” from economic growth. This usually means that per capita emissions have fallen relative to per capita economic growth. And while some countries have seen actual declines in emissions, that doesn't mean that emissions have gone to zero. Those countries continue to contribute staggering rates to atmospheric carbon accumulation. And the world as a whole needs to burn ever-increasing amounts of carbon to grow.
For this reason, I believe the North Atlantic freeze is likely on schedule, we have no plan to avoid it, and simply wearing warm clothes will not solve the myriad problems that will befall a society that is not prepared for sudden climate change.
Written by Kurt Cobb, via Resource Insights
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