Arlington Million 2024:
More than a dozen stakes races are being held across the country this week, but the biggest purse is at Colonial Downs in Virginia. The Arlington Million isn't in the Chicago area, but it's still one of the biggest turf races of the year. The race will be held on Sunday, Aug. 11, after the remnants of Tropical Storm Debby leave the East Coast and the turf dries out a bit.
This will be the second year the race has been held at Colonial Downs since Churchill Downs closed Arlington Park in 2022. While the name will remain, the changes will certainly be notable, with the 2022 race being held at Churchill Downs in Kentucky and the 2023 race being held in Virginia. The winner, Set Piece, is the only 7-year-old horse to have won the race.
This year's field of just six horses is the fewest in the race's history, meaning jockeys and trainers have a one-in-six chance of winning big prize money and a spot in the Breeders' Cup Turf.
The horses, odds, jockeys and trainers for the Arlington Million are as follows:
Horse Trainer Jockey Odds 1 Integration C. McGaughey K. Carmouche 5-22 Ancient Rome C. Hills JP Spencer 3-13 Sugoi M. Maker J. Leparoux 8-14 Nation's Pride C. Appleby W. Buick 8-55 Highland Chief HG Motion J. Velazquez 12-16 Talk of the Nation T. Pletcher J. Ortiz 6-1
Ireland-bred Nation's Pride has won more than $2.8 million in prize money from the race and is trainer Charles Appleby's favorite. Godolphin's 5-year-old will compete in Sunday's Race 11, a sprint race of 1.25 miles. Highland Chief is also European-bred, and the other four are all Kentucky-breds.
A few notes about horses:
1. Integration (5-2; McGaughey/Carmouche): Shug McGaughey sees Integration, a 4-year-old colt by Quality Road and Harmonize, as a real contender. The horse has only raced seven times but has four wins, including a commanding win in last month's Million Preview Stakes at Colonial Downs, which snapped a three-game losing streak to European horses.
This win also came as a heavy favorite in a small field of three. This was a Grade 1 race and Integration had previously placed 5th, 3rd and 4th. His turf resume comes from Harmonize, winner of the Del Mar Oaks and four other stakes races.
2. Ancient Rome (3-1, Hills/Spencer): This Kentucky-bred 5-year-old has won six of his 19 starts with 12 wins. Though Ancient Rome is American-bred, he has only raced once in the U.S., winning the G3 Mint Million Stakes at Kentucky Downs. The son of War Front and Gagnoa has only two races this year, finishing 12th in the Wolferton Stakes at Ascot and second in the G2 Ancourt Memorial Summer Mile Stakes.
Ancient Rome was slightly better than Stitched in the Mint Millions and took a long distance to get there from the middle of the track – a mile – and as a shipping horse who last ran in Britain less than a month ago, is there enough juice here to justify the extra 25 cents?
3. Sugoi (8-1; Maker/Leparou): A late bloomer, Sugoi is a very interesting contender for this year's Arlington Million. He has 10 wins, 7 losses and 2 draws in 28 starts, but 4 of his 5 wins have come in 5 starts this year. Incidentally, the 7-year-old colt by Cala Conti and Timeless Spirit has come 2nd in a race he didn't win. He posted a career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 114 when he placed 2nd in the Chorleywood Overnight Stakes last time out at Churchill Racecourse.
Sugoi has earned around $320,000 this year, more than double his career earnings. Unfortunately, his recent training has been mediocre after about two months of rest. Also, he has one win on dirt and two wins on artificial turf this year. However, his last two races were on dirt at 1.5 miles and 1.75 miles, so distance is not an issue. If price is a factor, Sugoi seems to be the best option.
4. Nation's Pride (8-5, Appleby/Buick): Nation's Pride has won just about everywhere, but he's looking to win in the United States for the first time since September 2022. His only races in the United States in 2024 were third in the Man O'War Stakes at Aqueduct and second in the Manhattan Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. Jockey William Buick is fresh off beating Nation's Pride aboard Measured Time with Frankie Dettori.
Both horses are trained by Appleby, so it makes sense to leave it to Buick to really pick where to ride them. Buick also just guided Appleby to victory last week in the Saratoga Oaks with Cinderella's Dream. With the strong connections here, it seems like everything is going well.
5. Highland Chief (12-1, Motion/Velazquez): Mrs. Fitriani Hay's second runner is Highland Chief, an Irish-bred 7-year-old horse by Gleneagles and Pink Symphony. He's been coming along nicely after finishing 5th, 4th and 2nd in the last Prince George's County Stakes. This horse didn't run from November 2022 to April 2024, but was really coming along nicely at the end of the year.
Highland Chief won the G1 Man O'War Stakes and G3 Sycamore Stakes in 2022 before taking an extended break, finishing 12th in the Breeders' Cup Turf before sitting out all of 2023. He was the favorite in the Prince George's County Stakes, so it was disappointing to see him finish second, but there's potential for this horse to be a big winner at long odds.
6. Talk of the Nation (6-1; Pletcher/Ortiz): The second Quality Road son in the field is Todd Pletcher's 4-year-old colt who's made a big step up in distance. He's never run more than a mile in eight races, all stakes races. He has four wins and five runner-up finishes, but distance is the big question mark.
Quality Road is a long-distance dirt horse, his dam She's Not Here is a two-time winner of the Yellow Ribbon Handicap over a mile on turf, and Grandfather Street Cry won the Stephen Foster in 2002 and also won the long-distance Dubai World Cup. The pedigree is solid, but will it translate into results?
Arlington Million Pick
The six-horse field has some attractive odds and a couple of very interesting longshots in Sugoi and Talk of the Nation, and with a talented turf trainer in Shug McGaughey and three turf wins at Colonial Downs, the consolidation is intriguing.
But at the end of the day, I like Nation's Pride. It says a lot that Buick chose to ride here for Appleby. This horse has been in the states for a few months already, so transportation isn't an issue, at least not for long distances. This horse's speed numbers are the best in the field, so distance isn't an issue either.
I'll also bet a small amount on Talk of the Nation, who has a pedigree that leans more towards longer distances and could be a surprise if he goes the extra quarter mile.
Using hypothetical $40 funds:
Fifteen dollars to win ($15)
4 Nations Pride
Five dollars to win (five dollars)
6. Talk of the Nation
$1 Trifecta Part Wheel ($12)
4,6 / 1,3,4,6 / 1,3,4,6
$4 Extabox ($8)
4/6
