He is perhaps the only licensed handicapper who has predicted every race at Colonial Downs since opening day and is looking to do even more in 2024. Nick's predictions will be back with his daily Colonial Downs predictions and analysis.
Date/Posting Time: August 11th/1:30 Race: 12 Carryover: Pick 6, $733
Race 1
Ten maiden horses will compete in the one-mile turf race, with no outstanding horses emerging, making it a betting race worthy of opening the card.
1. Insist Kitten Kitten's Joy filly ran well in her Colonial debut against high-caliber stallions and is a better position to be in here. 10. Street Corner Ross's Street Corner got bogged down in the mud in her Colonial debut and will likely lead most of her first turf start. 8. Biscuit Morgan's Ford-bred colt ran in a rain-affected race last weekend but will have a tougher challenge here.
Race 2
On dirt, a number of contenders will compete in the sprint, including Freeze the Fire, looking for his fourth straight win, and Allen's recent prizewinner.
8. Classieren A shaky start hampered him in his first start under Silk, and Lominski will be glad he's not here. 4. Bouncer Won over seven furlongs on the Colonial Dirt last summer, but returns to dirt under Case for the first time since March. 3. Freeze the Fire A fourth straight win is a sure thing, but he'll have to contend with some early speed. Magana's big chance.
Race 3
In short-distance races on turf, Beyer's riders focus on one horse, but if they're not in the lead, other horses have a chance.
2. Notice Me Too The grass is expected to be firm by the time this race is held. Stidham may want a race without any squashing. 4. Gin Gin's Approach The Lombetta filly ran well in her first grass race and is a great threat to take the lead on the outside of Notice Me Too. 8. Splash of Jack He may have followed a slightly faster pace in his first race at the Colonial, but as with his first career race, Karamanos should be a bit more highly rated.
Race 4
One of the two in-meeting winners will likely go on to win the race for the second time in a row, but that's no easy feat in a fiercely competitive turf course race for older horses.
2. Bodéchreme des Passes' veteran horse has been good at this distance on turf, but seems to have trouble coming out of tight distance races. 9. Massif: As a three-year-old, the Russell gelding has won at Colonial before and again this season against older horses, but a repeat will be tough. 6. Smallfield: The Huffman gelding has been good so far and knows how to win at Colonial Downs, but like Massif, a repeat will be tough.
Race 5 – Petra Maro Mile S
The $100,000 prize-money Petramalo Mile (also known as the Pet Mile) attracts runners who were hoping to win the Triple Crown in some form earlier in the year.
5. The HadesOrseno gelding had a tough follow-up to his win in the Holy Bull but prefers a mile on dirt without Domestic Product. 2. Real Macho After facing Fierceness and Dornach at a mile, Real Macho has returned to the turn for a run including a win in the seven furlong Carry Back. 7. Another recent winner who will take on Awesome Ruta is Ward's colt, who will be happy to not face Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom at the two-turn.
Race 6 – Penny Chenery S.
Two horses will be competing in the $100,000 Penny Chenery Race, a seven-furlong dirt race for three-year-old fillies, on the back of back-to-back wins.
6. Garvin's PrincessKO The filly can handle the long, sharp curves of the Colonial, as Gallardo did in his recent return to win with the filly. 8. Pure Lure No talent lost with McCarthy replacing Rodriguez, who has won every race, but this will be his first race outside of the Parks. 2. Dazzling Move The Trombetta filly is unstable, as are the surfaces and jockeys underneath, but she still has a good chance of winning.
Nick's Note
Picks follow below. Nick's picks have been impressive this summer with seven stakes race wins at Colonial Downs. Last Saturday's Keswick Stakes found jewel Winfinity ($25.80) as the longest shot on the board. The $25.80 payout helped replenish the cash gauge. There are seven stakes on the Colonial Downs card today and the predictions are not black or white. The Colonial Downs jockey title standings are as expected with newcomer Ben Curtis leading the way with nine wins, followed by Antonio Gallardo, Trevor McCarthy and Horacio Caramanos, all of whom have previous jockey title experience at Colonial with eight wins this season. The trainer standings are also competitive. Michael Trombetta and Brittany Russell have six wins each, while Michael Stidham and Carlos Munoz have five wins each. The only Virginia Derby winner to win the Arlington Million, held in the northwest suburbs of Chicago or east of Richmond, is Gio Ponti, who won the Million as a four-year-old a year after winning the 2008 Virginia Derby. Paddy O'Prado won the Secretariat Stakes in 2010 after winning both the Colonial Turf Cup and Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs, but he only raced once as an older horse. 2004 Virginia Derby winner Kitten's Joy also won the Secretariat Stakes as a three-year-old but finished second in the Million Stakes the following year. On August 3, the last day Colonial Downs held live racing, 1) Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris had not yet announced her vice presidential candidate, 2) Tropical Storm Debby was causing concern in the Caribbean, 3) the Orioles were leading the AL East before tying with the Yankees and then reclaiming the lead in the division, 4) the U.S. men's basketball team was two days away from playing Brazil in the Olympic quarterfinals, and 5) Virginia was in the midst of a tax holiday for back-to-school and emergency preparedness supplies.
Race 7 – Andy Guest S.
Andy Guest at $150,000 has Shambaugh, a colonial legend, Gilpin/Petty at first for $5, then several others claiming.
7. Beauty of the SeaOseno fillies have consistently achieved stakes wins at this level, especially when the turf is firm and they are well prepared and rested. 6. Shoshana With Shoshana's dirt start in the line, this filly will emerge in a more competitive light and return to Rojas. 5. Medalla Match A change of jockey is expected for Medalla Match, who joined the graded stakes fraternity after winning the Black Type.
Race 8 – Van Cleef S.
Only two of these 12 Van Cleef progeny can be drawn a line to determine a winner on the turf course, but everything else is over-analysis.
1. Dream Shake I'm hoping Curtis can get over the rail in Stidham's first start of 2024. This horse is competitive in graded stakes races. 7. Whitty Merryman had some options but ran the versatile gray Colonial that has placed 1st or 2nd almost every time. 4. Determine Kingdom The early stages of this race will tell us how much of a chance there is for a Schoenthal sprinter who is much better than a restricted stakes winner.
Race 9 – Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes.
Last year, the most unexpected winner was Secretariat, but with so many outstanding players, I don’t expect that to happen again.
9. Trickery American Turf winner returns to the Belmont Derby and wins. Motion could have started anywhere, so here are my picks: 1. Brilliant Belty Another American Derby winner at Churchill (a non-American Turf American Derby winner) continues to grow at Devaux and already has a proven track record at a mile. 2. Rock 'n' Halo Amos gelding saw a tough field at Audubon and ran toe-to-toe before moving back down to a mile.
Race 10 – Grade 2 Beverly DS
Fev Rover returned to Colonial to defend last year's Beverly D, but earlier in the competition Nadette won the Beverly D Preview.
2. Nadette Nadette came over from the west coast in the Beverly D Preview and won. Drysdale liked the position. 6. Moira Nadette almost won the Prix Diana at Saratoga when she won here, but she was outshone by Fev Lorber last year, as was Moira, who won in her second start in 24 years. 4. Fev Lorber The Cuss filly was never satisfied after last year's Beverly D win, but she wasn't in the same solid form she was back then.
Race 11 – Grade 1 Arlington Million
Integration is unbeaten at Colonial Downs and will “take on Nations” looking to complete the Secretariat/Million double.
1. In a combined six-horse field, Shug's colt, with jockey Carmouche back on board, will be a good target to chase. 4. Nation's Pride Appleby's horse has won triple-digit Beyer races in the U.S. every year since 2022, with wins in five different countries and three continents. 6. Talk of the Nation Pletcher's Quality Road colt will likely take the lead but will be pushed hard somewhere between the eighth and 16th poles.
Race 12
The final race, the turf sprint, will be the most difficult handicap race of any long-distance race due to its complex conditions.
2. Dr. Jeff Beyer's stable breeder wants to run to see this race, and when in good form is a standout. 6. One thing about Charmed Noish is that he doesn't run unless he has a great chance to win here, as he did with one win at the Colonial last summer. 5. King Coby Schoenthal's gelding in the Punch Line showed a sharp move while trailing stablemate Determine Kingdom late in the race.
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