He is perhaps the only licensed handicapper who has predicted every race at Colonial Downs since opening day and is looking to do even more in 2024. Nick's predictions will be back with his daily Colonial Downs predictions and analysis.
Date/Start Time: August 12th/11:45 (steeplechase), first flat race at 1:30 Number of Races: 12 Carryover: None
Race 1
Steeplechase – Fisher's two flyers took the lead, and when the flag dropped, none of the unwinning horses lined up showed any signs of catching up.
1. Palio Finished third behind the other two winners in this event and is probably the horse Watters wanted to ride. 5. Kenilworth King Young's Kitten's Joy 5-year-old will struggle to leave this course but was strong late in her last race. 6. Dirk Pourbriand's mare was impressive on the flat but won't be able to do so after a lap and a half hurdle race first.
Race 2
Steeplechase – Exuma will be looking to become the first horse to win the steeplechase for the second time in the event, but he will face some tough competition.
1. River Dee's Jumper won two races in a row before starting as the favorite in the Jimmy Dunn Colonial and was the favorite to win. 2. Exuma Beacher's Galileo Jumper led 20 lengths at the start and has been steadily improving since then. 3. Two Past Eight has won two European steeplechase races but has had many long distance flat races since those victories. Today is his first start in the United States.
Race 3
In the $100,000 Randolph Routh Memorial Steeplechase, Excalpate will be looking to win his second title of the tournament.
1. Hain Blue: I don't really care about the rail in steeplechase races, but Hain Blue did beat Expected in the Carolinas. 3. My Forever: The Any Young filly's two starts have been solid, and Burgary has taken on this chasing challenger. 7. Expected to lead the majority of the race, Expected to never be bad at jumping at any level or condition.
Race 4
On dirt, seven 2-year-old virgins have little or no experience competing in these short grass races.
4. Improbable Me He's a good guy, but Munoz is the devil on the dirt at Colonial Downs, giving Gavin a chance in his gelding's first start. 7. Sackett After a little rest, McCutchen will be coming off one Kentucky MSW and saddled with McCarthy for a breakthrough win. 2. Grey Shadow The morning line favorite is coming off Karamanos and MSW and will still be a start time choice.
Race 5
You can tell from the conditions that the guys who have won some races on the dirt here haven't done it at a high level.
4. Randazzo This seldom raced Stidham gelding won on dirt last year, but a promising race in Delaware looks impressive. 2. Jolly By Golly A close loss on dirt at Colonial three weeks ago could have been won with an extra furlong today. 5. Northern Chilconnor Has run a good race and may take the lead at some point, but seven furlongs could be a challenge.
Race 6
Although it is still on a dirt course, it is truly a redemption race, with horses that have had good results in the past, such as Repo Rocks and Wellen Springs, looking to repeat their win.
6. Mufasa: A bit of a stretch, but I'll go with the South America to Colonial angle, which has worked for Didia in the past. 3. Wellen Springs: If memory serves, Schultz got his first stakes win at the Colonial and will be starting again as a standout New Jersey horse in 2023. 5. Repolux: After a solid training in Delaware, this frequent stakes winner in New York will be racing with a new trainer, on a new surface and at a new distance.
Nick's Note
The picks follow. There was a time when winning a turf race for 3-year-olds at Colonial Downs (like the Virginia Derby) was beyond trainer Graham Motion's grasp. It was one of the major stakes races that meant a lot to him personally. But now, that race is overflowing from his pocket. Motion won his first Secretariat Stakes with Tricari, in addition to his third Virginia Derby win. Ridden by John Velazquez, Tricari took the lead on the way home and then beat a surging Brilliant Belty by two lengths. Motion is now considering racing older horses on a mile of turf, perhaps at Keeneland, as a Breeders' Cup prep for the winner of the American Turf, Belmont Derby and Secretariat Stakes. Perhaps the best duel of the night was when Moira won the Beverly Derby for the first time aboard jockey Jose Ortiz under trainer Kevin Attard. Moira won by overtaking Fave Rover, who set the early pace until challenged by Liban. After the race, Attard said that the decision to send Moira to Colonial Downs instead of Woodbine was not finalized until the last minute. The result of the race was a split second difference at the end. Jockey William Buick had to catch a flight immediately after the Arlington Million, but he did not ride Nation's Pride as if that was not an issue. After the race, Buick signed autographs for several people on his way to the jockey's room and commented that he knew he was riding the best horse in the race based on his good run on Friday at the Oklahoma Training Track at Saratoga and, of course, his impressive resume. Sugoi, ridden by Julien Leparou, took a commanding lead around the home turn, but Nation's Pride overtook Sugoi and Talk of the Nation won by nearly two lengths. Colonial Acer Integration tried to close the gap. Buick, who rides in Europe, watches a lot of turf racing and praised Colonial's Secretariat Turf course as world class and very fair. Nick's Pick had another profitable day with four of the day's top 12 winners, including Tricari, Van Cleef's Dream Shake in the $150,000 race, Andy Guest's Beauty of the Sea in the $150,000 race and Body Cream early on the card. Racing ended after dark with an 11:45 start for the first of Monday's steeplechase races at Colonial Downs. We'll have more to share about this amazing Festival of Racing in the six editions of Nick's Pick appearing this week.
Race 7
The first race on the turf today will be a sprint race for claimers who are familiar with Colonial Downs but have never won.
5. LitaKlesaris is set to win the Colonial and returns a horse who finished second at the same level against some clever classless horses. 11. Lusty Will surely be part of Russell's early pace for classless horses and may be happy with the distance being shortened to one turn. 6. Momentous Miss Expect a better run than she did in her first Colonial start in 2024 from a mare who has had the misfortune of finishing second in the Colonial on a couple of occasions.
Race 8
The Starter Allowance One Stallion Sprint features horses that have improved or equalled their Beyer Value in their previous race.
8. Boats-A-Rockin' This veteran, winner of the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Race Course, will need to withstand speed on the inside, and he has plenty of it. 2. Lucci Lucci recently turned the tables on The Boss Is A Pal, finishing fifth in his first start at the Colonial before closing in to beat by two lengths before the finish. 1. Ness, an even older veteran who's been a bit neglected on the Borracho dynasty line, is looking for his fifth straight win on four different courses, this time on turf.
Race 9
Many of the veteran horses who have won at Colonial Race Course are looking to make a spectacular comeback in short turf races, with their first wins here.
3. Ara Breve Looking to make the list of Colonial winners is the Mats mare ridden by Karamanos, looking for her third straight win. 6. Sol Hopelightner's mare almost won the Colonial on good turf, where she was unbeaten in her four previous turf races. 9. Cavalier Nagle's five-year-old filly, trained at Braeburn by Cupid's Closet, is looking to get back into filly form.
Race 10
In a field filled with first-time turf sprinters, it's hard to forgive horses with more races when promising youngsters are achieving big results early on.
6. GranuaileLaurel's solid start for Madison Myers gives Curtis the opportunity to ride the filly in her first Colonial appearance. 5. Thy Name Is WomanA slight drop in class gives the Trombetta filly a competitive edge with the return of Karamanos, who was narrowly defeated in the Colonial. 4. Bonnie BlueA well-bred filly ridden by Cooney, out of Hansel and a solid dam ridden by Tomlinson, will be making her Lazy Lane debut.
Race 11
Another short maiden race on deep turf is full of final pushes to chase down solo speed.
12. Yamosti Dam wanted a firm track for this Catholic Boy 3-year-old to perform well, as he has raced at the Colonial his entire career. 7. Oconee Life This Cairo Prince gelding has a shorter course, but recent results suggest he is a real goal-seeker. 1. Baby Oscar Saville has won three of his four starts at the Colonial, so he deserves more respect for his first time here.
Race 12
This will be the third consecutive first turf sprint race, with 12 horses competing, and is scheduled to conclude the card.
2. Donate LifeThis filly's résumé is worth rooting for, but Tomlinson, her class drop and recent results suggest she's a threat to compete at the top. 11. La BefanaAs a four-year-old, facing a field still dominated by three-year-olds, Nagle's filly has shown promising recent results. 8. Irish AngelOne more class drop and a shortened race to a sprint may be all Irish Angel needs to win.
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