This week's FTN Fantasy Crossed Up is all about hitters. Specifically, four intriguing hitters who have been providing a ton of fantasy value recently in their own ways. Is these performances real? What should we expect from each player going forward? Let's take a closer look.
Jake Berger, 1B/3B, Miami Marlins
After pitching 1/4 with 3 strikeouts on July 11, Jake Berger is hitting a disappointing .215/.256/.349 for the season. As someone who invested heavily in Berger this spring, the first half of the season was incredibly disappointing. Berger left a bad impression on fantasy managers and was arguably not cooked properly. Fortunately, the second half of the season has been perfectly cooked.
Berger is batting .350/.416/.820 with 14 home runs over his last 26 games. No other hitter has hit more home runs over the past month, but a lackluster lineup around him has allowed him just 20 runs and 19 RBIs over the past 30 days.
There are two schools of thought when it comes to Berger. One is that he may be a late-season player. In 2023, Berger batted .220/.278 in the first half of the season, but batted .279/.339 in the second. A similar surge in production is happening this season. But at the same time, Berger has also been a disappointing hitter when compared to his fundamental metrics.
While his approach is still not the best, Berger's 5.7% walk rate and 27.1% strikeout rate are roughly in line with 2023, and his contact quality metrics are well above league average with a 13.1% barrel rate, 91.9 mph AVG EV, and 48.1% hard-hit rate. And speaking of contact rate, Berger has actually improved his zone contact rate from 78.5% to 81.4% and his contact percentage from 65.9% to 70%. Both of these are still below league average, but they're both passable given Berger's contact quality metrics.
Berger has always been prone to ups and downs, but if he ends up hitting around .250 with around 35 home runs, I don't think he'll be too disappointed. If he continues to perform like this every year, Berger would be in the top 100 overall.
Tyler Fitzgerald, SS/OF, San Francisco Giants
Let's play a little guesswork. Tyler Fitzgerald, who hit another home run on Tuesday, is currently batting .305/.363/.609 with 13 homers, 12 stolen bases, 36 runs scored, and 25 RBIs. Extrapolating those numbers over 650 at-bats gives us 123 runs scored, 44 homers, 86 RBIs, and 41 stolen bases. Not bad, especially for a player who went undrafted in a 50-round draft-and-hold league this spring.
Obviously we shouldn't expect a 40/40 pace going forward, but how reliable is Fitzgerald and what should we realistically expect going forward?
It's fair to say this level of production is surprising, but Fitzgerald didn't just appear out of nowhere or have a bad minor league career: He's coming off back-to-back 20/20 seasons in 2022 and 2023, and he hit eight home runs in 17 games this season before being promoted.
Fitzgerald has shown a solid blend of power and speed so far with the Giants, posting an 11.6% barrel rate, 88.4 mph average EV, 35.5% hard-hit rate and 99th percentile spring velocity. While contact quality metrics don't suggest he'll sustain this level of power, Fitzgerald could establish himself as a 20+ home run, 20+ stolen base hitter.
So while he has the potential to be a 20/20 (or better) player, Fitzgerald's 75.9% zone contact rate, 71% overall contact rate, 6.8% walk rate and 27.9% strikeout rate are all worse than league average, which will likely limit his effectiveness to some extent.
But still, Fitzgerald profiles as a quality middle infielder or even a top 30 outfielder, so long as his contact rate, walk rate, and strikeout rate don't worsen going forward. I don't trust Fitzgerald at his current level, but his profile going forward still has some appeal.
Jake McCarthy, outfielder, Arizona Diamondbacks
I was recently perusing Fangraphs looking at hitting leaders and Jake McCarthy's name popped up. Honestly, I was surprised at how well he's been this season considering no one is talking about him. In 325 at-bats this season, McCarthy is batting .311/.380/.458 with six home runs, 17 stolen bases, 40 RBI and 45 runs scored. McCarthy's profile is a mixed bag, but his strengths certainly make him valuable to fantasy managers.
There is one area that is not a strength, and that is McCarthy's strength. This season, McCarthy has posted well below average contact quality metrics with a 3.4% barrel rate, 85.5 mph average EV, and 24.1% hard hit rate. But the good news is that McCarthy doesn't need to hit for power to provide value in the AVG and SB departments.
McCarthy has posted an impressive 90.1% zone contact rate and 81.7% overall contact rate this season while striking out just 16.9% of the time. And once he gets on base, McCarthy has used his 97th percentile sprint speed to his advantage, stealing 17 bases in just 325 plate appearances on an 85% success rate this season and 85.2% career.
McCarthy only hits 5-10 home runs a year, but he has the contact skills and speed to hit .280 or better and steal 25 or more bases. He's also been batting second about two-thirds of the time recently, and is scoring a decent amount of runs.
Zach Neto, SS, Los Angeles Angels
In a season where shortstop value has changed dramatically, both positively and negatively, Zach Neto's season has flown somewhat under the radar. Neto is batting .266/.330/.463 with 54 runs scored, 17 homers, 61 RBI and 22 stolen bases in 445 at-bats. He's one of the only bright spots for the Los Angeles Angels, who are once again set to miss the postseason.
I've seen Neto move up the rankings quite a bit, and my rating has improved quite a bit this season, but I'm not ready to include him in the top few tiers at the position. Neto is more of a well-rounded player than a standout in any one area. His zone and overall contact rate are about league average, with an 8.8% barrel rate, 88.9 mph average EV, and 38.6% hard hit rate all just above league average. Neto is a good runner, but is far from a burner.
Neto is a top 100 overall player with 20/20 room for improvement per year, as well as a decent batting average and on-base percentage. He probably won't stand out in any one area, but his ability to produce decent numbers across the board makes him a starting shortstop at a top defensive position or back end in a 12-team league. I wouldn't expect him to finish 1st or 2nd in the top tier of shortstops, though.
