The French president's visit to Poland can be analyzed from two aspects. The first is the interests of each national political leader. Add the benefits you need.
Donald Tusk wants to look his best on the anniversary of his takeover. Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron is suffering from a political crisis following the collapse of his government. According to the latest CSA survey for Europe 1 and the Journal du Dimanche, 59% of French people support the resignation of the head of state.
According to Dr. Janusz Cibola, Macron's visit is a “win-win” situation in this context, benefiting both parties. “The French president has major domestic problems and is trying to cover them with international activities,'' commented an expert on international politics and researcher of diplomatic history.
– In the case of Mr. Tusk, the scale of dissatisfaction and disappointment after one year in power is considerable. The meeting with Macron will strengthen Macron's position in terms of the image of Poland's presidency of the European Union and Poland's position, Inter interlocutors said.
MERCOSUR. “We tried, but they outplayed us.”
The leaders mentioned their opposition to the European Union-Mercosur agreement, even though Prime Minister Ursula von der Leyen had already announced successful free trade negotiations with South American countries. “Achieving a majority to block a deal will be difficult,” Cibola said.
The main supporter of this proposal is Germany. If an agreement is voted on under the variant adopted by the European Parliament and the Council of the EU, a qualified majority vote will be the deciding factor. 15 countries representing at least 65% of the 27 EU countries must agree. Resident of the Union.
– This is more of a message for internal needs. Polish and French politicians “we tried and fought, but we can say that they outdid us, because this is the procedure,” Cibola comments.
However, the French president's visit to Poland also has broader dimensions in the context of transatlantic relations.
Donald Tusk and Emmanuel Macron 'spoke to Trump'
– For me, the purpose of President Macron's visit is clear. This is creating a united political front in Europe against Donald Trump's plans, Dr. Cibola says.
– I got the impression that the president and prime minister were talking to President Trump generally about his plans. The statement says two important things. They stressed that there can be no peace negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine. Secondly, the interlocutors explain that European security must be maintained as a result of these talks and that they cannot be held at the expense of European security.
Mr Cibola draws attention to Mr Tusk's words about the “need for complete European unity”. – If complete unity is required, that means it does not exist at the moment. He emphasizes that if Viktor Orban talks to President Putin for an hour, he will see that there is no unity.
Europe is reluctant. There is no peace plan in Ukraine, it is beyond Ukraine's capabilities.
~ Dr. Janusz Cibola
There is also no sense of unity regarding the proposal to send European troops to Ukraine. The Prime Minister put an end to speculation and rejected such a scenario. – It was probably a trial balloon – Cibola commented, pointing out the acceptance test for such an idea. “I can't talk about it now because I don't know if there will be a ceasefire or peace,” he added.
・Europe is passive. There is no peace plan in Ukraine and it is beyond Ukraine's capabilities. Of course, some may be skeptical of Trump's peace plan and rhetoric, although he is doing a lot behind the scenes to bring Russia to the negotiating table. He intends to use economic techniques to lower the price of a barrel of oil. His colleagues will discuss the matter with Saudi Arabia, Sibola said.
– We in Europe are again discussing the details. This shows weakness towards Trump. Europe is still recovering from the US election. Some might say Trump is bragging and his plan to end wars is campaign rhetoric, but we have no idea. All we know is what Mr. Tusk is talking about: strengthening Ukraine's economy and shifting to European defense industries. We know all this, it's a broken record – say experts.
Tusk-Macron meeting. “Ambulance” diplomacy
Janusz Szybola noted that the current strategy of leading politicians toward Ukraine is “very defensive” compared to President Trump's attitude.
– This is diplomacy, like an ambulance traveling through Europe. Europe cannot afford a peace plan. There were different formats and meetings, but everything changed after President Trump was elected. After returning from France, President Trump made it clear that Europe must take on the responsibility of defending Ukraine, the interlocutors emphasized, referring to the meeting of world leaders commemorating the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.
Cibola also drew attention to the curtailment of Macron's visit to Poland, which was first reported by the AFP news agency. The French president was originally scheduled to visit the Warsaw Uprising Museum.
– That's a bad signal and always looks bad diplomatically. You can see that hosts are undervalued. Experts comment that this is not very elegant.
French media has been speculating about an early return to Paris and the announcement of the name of the new prime minister. – The visit to Poland is of a practical nature, so the ceremonial element is reduced. However, it is never best to shorten the visit time. This is further proof of the diplomatic power of the emergency services, said Dr. Janusz Cibola in an interview with Intalia.
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