The August 25 Israeli “preemptive” strike on Lebanon and Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks against Israel highlight the complexities and risks of escalation of the multilateral war that has been raging in West Asia since October 2023. The main battlefield is Gaza, which Israel has been relentlessly attacking since its October 7 attack on Hamas, but the conflict has de facto spread to Israel's northern border and southern Lebanon. Over the past 10 months, the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah has launched hundreds of rocket attacks towards Israel in “solidarity with the Palestinians.” Israel has responded with airstrikes in Lebanon, killing Hezbollah operatives and civilians. The catalyst for the recent escalation of tensions was Israel's killing of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut on July 31, the same day Israel killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. On August 25, after striking hundreds of Hezbollah targets, Israel said the attack was defensive and that the Shiite group was planning a larger offensive, but that it also prompted Hezbollah to fire more than 300 Katyusha rockets and drones at Israel, killing at least one soldier and wounding several others.
After Sunday's pre-dawn bombing, both sides showed signs of de-escalation. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the group had achieved its goal, and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the country does not want a regional war. But neither side plans to back away from the chain of tensions. It is clear that Israel is in no hurry to end its devastating attacks on Gaza, which have killed more than 40,000 Palestinians. The United States supports and brokers a ceasefire, but it also supports Israel's war efforts through defense supplies and diplomatic protection. Hezbollah has said it will not stop attacking Israel as long as the Gaza war continues. Israel has tried to change the reality on the ground by bombing Hezbollah and taking out its commanders, but Hezbollah's continued attacks, which have turned northern Israel into a deserted refuge zone, show that this approach has not been very successful. When Israel launched its attacks on Hamas, it vowed to dismantle the group. Today, even the IDF questions whether it can destroy Hamas. While the war with Hamas continues, the conflict with Hezbollah is intensifying. Israel hoped to strengthen security in the south by destroying Hamas, but the expansion of the war has increased insecurity in the north. And Israel has no easy military solution to Hezbollah. As long as the war in Gaza continues, the path to a wider regional war remains open.
