Ernesto, which brought strong seas, winds and rain near Newfoundland on Monday, is forecast to develop tropical winds and storm forces and affect the British Isles from Wednesday night into Thursday.
By Alex Sosnowski, Senior Meteorologist, AccuWeather
Published on August 17, 2024 at 10:52 AM PDT | Updated on August 19, 2024 at 2:47 PM PDT
Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to hit Bermuda as a hurricane and pass near Newfoundland before crossing the Atlantic towards the UK.
AccuWeather meteorologists predict Ernesto will approach southeast Newfoundland as a hurricane or strong tropical storm late Monday before strengthening to tropical winds and storm strength as it crosses the North Atlantic toward the British Isles late Wednesday into Thursday.
As the waters of the North Atlantic cool, Ernesto's winds will weaken and its shape will change over the next few days. However, even with some changes in Ernesto's structure, it will still be a powerful storm that will bring strengthening winds and seas away from the center and heavy rains along its path.
Ernesto was active as a tropical storm after making landfall in Bermuda early Saturday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. Ernesto regained hurricane status on Sunday afternoon.
“Ernesto will likely pass within 100 miles of the Avalon Peninsula on the island of Newfoundland, which makes up the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador, sometime Monday evening or overnight Monday,” said Alex DaSilva, chief hurricane specialist at AccuWeather.
As of early Monday afternoon, the Ernesto was about 400 miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, with maximum winds of 90 mph.
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There could be some slight changes to the course that could result in Ernesto passing very close to or directly over the Cape Race late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Ernesto is a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ scale for hurricanes in Atlantic Canada.
The RealImpact™ Scale takes into account much more than the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. In addition to wind, the RealImpact™ Scale also considers the overall risk to life and property from storm surge flooding, flooding from heavy rainfall, traffic disruptions, and projected economic losses.
Offshore wave heights are expected to reach up to 30 to 40 feet near the center of Ernesto. Rain and winds directly associated with this storm are expected to spread rapidly into southeastern and central Newfoundland on Monday.
Wind gusts of 40-60 mph (tropical storm strength) will be frequent in the southeastern corner of Newfoundland, including the major city of St. John's, with AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gusts reaching 100 mph, most likely in Cape Race.
The region experiences strong storms in the fall, winter and spring, including northeasterly winds, and Ernesto could cause damage by downing trees and power lines, as well as cause flash flooding and coastal flooding.
In southeastern Newfoundland, an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 8 inches of rain is expected, with 1 to 4 inches of rain typically falling.
As Ernesto moves forward, it could affect ships at sea in the North Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday. The storm will accelerate and could reach speeds of 30 to 40 miles per hour. Sea levels ahead of the storm will rapidly rise to 20 to 30 feet.
Ernesto will continue to pack tropical winds and storm power in the North Atlantic Ocean beyond Newfoundland as the storm rapidly approaches the British Isles on Wednesday.
The exact track, size and strength of Ernesto will determine the extent of the wind and rain problems later Wednesday into Thursday. At present, the worst impacts of the storm are expected to be felt north and west of London, but this could change depending on the track of Ernesto. Dublin and Glasgow are more likely to experience strong winds and rain from the storm.
When a tropical storm or hurricane becomes a severe storm, it can rage for days, bringing flooding rain and destructive winds — and in some cases, tornadoes. That's why AccuWeather meteorologists continue to track these storms even after the National Hurricane Center has ended its warnings.
Stormy conditions could spread to parts of northwestern Europe this weekend, including Norway, Denmark, northern Germany and the Netherlands, depending on how well winds and rain endure across Ireland and the UK.
The Pacific Ocean is heating up, with several storms being monitored in addition to Girma, and one of the most likely to strengthen could pass near Hawaii this weekend.
There is a slight chance that a non-tropical storm that formed over land in the southeastern United States earlier this week may gradually strengthen as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
Winds will extend this feature into Texas by the weekend. Dry air and dust may limit tropical activity in other parts of the Atlantic this week.
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