Berlin —
European allies are relieved that Kamala Harris has been formally nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate, reducing the threat of President Donald Trump's reelection, but there is still an undercurrent of anxiety.
Just six weeks ago, with former President Trump's approval rating soaring in the polls after his victory at the Republican National Convention, a constant topic of discussion at meetings of European officials was how to “anti-Trump” institutions like NATO and the European Union that the former president had often denounced as ineffective or branded as outright enemies.
The near frenetic atmosphere of these debates has largely subsided as Democrats moved quickly to endorse Harris after President Biden withdrew from the race, and talk has shifted to what to expect from a US administration led by Harris.
Analysts say European leaders and policymakers generally believe a Harris victory in November would provide important continuity in ties with the continent's key blocs, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union, as well as a continuation of the friendly bilateral ties strengthened by Biden.
And on this side of the Atlantic, the assessment is that if Harris wins, she will keep US power focused on the key European project of supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia, which launched a full-scale invasion of neighbouring Ukraine in February 2022.
But beyond those broad parameters, things get a bit more uncertain.
First of all, no one wants to be overconfident about Harris's prospects for victory. Trump's tumultuous presidency, which began with his shock election in 2016 and was something of a trauma for America's closest allies in Europe, has seen him demonstrate indifference to the notion of shared transatlantic interests and values and a surprisingly deferential attitude toward Russian President Vladimir Putin during his presidency.
Trump's highly transactional view of international alliances was on full display in his current campaign against Harris. At a rally in North Carolina on Wednesday, Trump said, referring to America's allies, “They don't do anything for us.”
Concerns in Europe about President Trump's reelection have eased, but the election is still seen as a close race and the fears have not disappeared completely.
“In the end, he can still win,” said Staffan Lindberg, a political scientist and director of the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, who has described Trump as a serious threat to democracy. “Everybody is aware of that.”
During his presidency, Donald Trump has demonstrated an indifference to the idea of shared transatlantic interests and values, while being surprisingly deferential to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
(Carlos Osorio/The Associated Press)
Liana Fix, a Europe scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the wariness of Trump that peaked this summer may actually have had some positive effects: Policymakers may stop planning for Europe to take more responsibility for its own defense and return to a “complacent” reliance on the U.S.
The quiet joy at Ms Harris' apparent growing influence has not been shared across Europe, where far-right movements have been largely contained in recent elections but remain a major threat to mainstream parties.
Analysts say far-right leaders in Europe were excited earlier this summer at the prospect of a comfortable Trump victory, but a Harris win would undermine populist-nationalist forces across the Atlantic.
“I think Orban will want a different outcome than other prime ministers,” Lindberg said, referring to the Hungarian prime minister, a Trump ally whose 15 years in power have seen a significant erosion of Hungary's democratic norms and more recently his attempts to undermine European support for Ukraine.
Despite the near-unity among NATO member states on supporting Ukraine, the situation has become more complicated as the war drags on.
After Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban spoke in Baile Tusnad, Romania, last month, two men wear shirts with a picture of the prime minister and the words “Make America Hungarian Again.”
(Alexandre Dobre/Associated Press)
Putin's full-scale invasion will soon enter its fourth year with a new American administration taking office in January, and some allies, notably Germany, are showing signs of backing away from their willingness to continue funding Western efforts to blunt the Russian onslaught.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has signaled it is growing frustrated with a pattern of Western countries providing it with enough weaponry to thwart Russian aggression but not enough to actually win a war. Tensions have been particularly high over U.S. restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range weapons capable of reaching Russian soil.
Ukraine's bold incursion into Russian territory two weeks ago, without advance notice from Washington or its European allies, highlighted frustrations in Kiev, where President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday criticized restrictions on the use of foreign-supplied weapons, calling the basis for such restrictions “naive” and “illusory.”
The fire broke out near the village of Krasnyukchabrskoye in Russia's Kursk region on Tuesday, a bold incursion into Russian territory in Ukraine that was not informed in advance by either Washington or its European allies, highlighting frustration in Kiev.
(Planet Labs PBC/Associated Press)
European leaders may also be hoping that Harris's administration will demonstrate a willingness to apply stronger pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war in Gaza, where the Palestinian death toll has topped 40,000, according to Gaza health officials. More than a third of the 27 EU member states recognize the Palestinian state, but the United States does not.
In her short campaign so far, Harris has publicly supported Biden's support for Israel but has also cited the humanitarian disaster in Gaza. Pressure is likely to intensify for her to speak out more on the issue in the coming weeks.
“It remains to be seen what her position on the Middle East will be,” Lindbergh said.
This week has seen another disturbing series of diplomatic developments: U.S. hopes of a ceasefire agreement leading to the release of hostages held by Hamas were raised and then dashed, while Israeli critics of Netanyahu have accused him of deliberately sabotaging the agreement.
Vice President Kamala Harris spoke at a campaign rally in Milwaukee on Tuesday.
(Jacqueline Martin/Associated Press)
Harris, if president, would have at least some name recognition among Europeans, having met with many leaders and policymakers at high-profile events such as the Munich Security Conference in February, but the vice president will never be the main negotiator with Europe; that has always been Biden.
Given that, analysts say it will take time for European countries to warm to her views, and vice versa.
“There's a certain level of familiarity that's developed, but it's limited,” Lindberg said. “At this point, it's certainly true that everyone is trying to find out as much about her as they can, as quickly as they can.”
