More than halfway through this crucial election year, the Liberal Democrats have largely succeeded in halting the advance of the dark forces of nationalist populism in Europe.
But it is too early to declare victory for this firewall against the far right. The US election could set off destabilizing chain reactions in Europe and elsewhere if Donald Trump returns to the White House. Meanwhile, a victory for Vice President Kamala Harris could energize progressive forces around the world, restoring Democrats' hopes of staying in power just three weeks after President Biden dropped out of the race.
In Europe, the loose alliance of mainstream parties that has kept the forces of illiberalism, intolerance and bigotry out of power in Brussels, Paris, Berlin and Warsaw is fragile. The alliance is being helped by the inherent inability of far-right parties, which won around 25% of the vote in June's EU-wide elections, to form a united front in the European Parliament. Despite attempts by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to form a single nationalist International, the two eurosceptic right-wing groups in the previous parliament are now split into three at odds.
In addition to personal feuds, these groups also disagree on whether to support Ukraine against Russian aggression and whether to try to turn the EU into a looser collection of sovereign states or to leave it altogether. The more “respectable,” pragmatic national conservatives around Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni want to distance themselves from the more aggressive nationalist parties that advocate the expulsion of immigrants who have acquired citizenship or residency.
In mid-July, a temporary coalition of conservatives, socialists, liberals and greens came together to re-elect Ursula von der Leyen as president of the European Commission, running on contradictory promises to stick to net-zero carbon targets, boost industrial competitiveness and ease regulatory burdens for farmers. Von der Leyen is expected to maintain her broad support when she presents all the government-nominated commissioners to the Commission President in September, but it is quite possible that one or two candidates will be rejected on the street stage at confirmation hearings, which give the newly elected parliament a chance to flex its muscles.
The real challenge for von der Leyen will come when she tries to write new laws to implement the sensitive aspects of the European Green Deal to fight the climate crisis and protect the environment and biodiversity. Von der Leyen's own conservative bloc could strategically align with the far right and vote down measures on nature protection and pesticides that were hotly contested in the last parliament. While this opportunistic issue-switching may not translate into a power shift for the far right, it would be more worrying if it extended to a dehumanization of immigration policy.
Such a shift took place in the French parliament last year, when President Emmanuel Macron's centrist bloc allowed the conservative Republicans to strengthen an immigration bill that included discriminatory measures against foreigners. The bill passed with the support of the far-right National Rally (RN) party, but was rejected by the Constitutional Council, strengthening the Rally's political agenda.
In June and July's general elections, millions of French people strategically voted for their rivals rather than allow the RN to win the first round and gain control of parliament. The result was a deadlocked National Assembly, with no party or coalition holding a majority. This has weakened Macron's influence in the EU, but for now at least, the Republican Front's firewall has kept the populists at bay.
'An emotional moment': Ursula von der Leyen re-elected as European Commission President – VIDEO
Whether France will have a center-right minority government, a left-wing New Popular Front minority government (unlikely), or an Italian-style technocratic government remains to be seen until new elections are held a year from now. The Paris Olympics provide a political respite, with widespread relief that Marine Le Pen's national populists have been thwarted at the doorstep of power, despite fears that this may only improve Le Pen's chances of winning the 2027 presidential election.
While centrists have held firm at the EU level, populist nationalists continue to make inroads in domestic politics in several parts of Europe. The Netherlands formed its first far-right-led coalition government, despite Geert Wilders of the avowedly anti-Islam Freedom Party being blocked from becoming prime minister. In Slovakia, pro-Russian nationalist Robert Fico, whose ally won the presidential election, is backing Prime Minister Orbán against moves by the EU to tighten financial sanctions in response to repeated abuses of the rule of law in Hungary.
In Britain, Keir Starmer's landslide victory against a Conservative party that veered to the nationalist right after the Brexit referendum showed that the party could be defeated if voters realised that populist nationalism had not lived up to their expectations and had put them at a disadvantage. But the recent upsurge in far-right anti-immigrant violence highlights how extremists mobilised on social media can cause political unrest even if they have a weak voice in parliament.
The next big test of the European firewall will come in Germany, where elections in three eastern states will be held in September in what is being seen as a dress rehearsal for next year's federal election. Despite being expelled from the European Parliament by other nationalist parties following a series of scandals, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is leading opinion polls in all three states, and the recently formed pro-Russia left-wing populist coalition Zara Wagenknecht is estimated at 20% support. The mainstream parties may not be able to win enough seats in any of the states to form a coalition government.
Of all the events that could change the political dynamics in Europe, the US presidential elections are by far the most influential. The return of a vengeful Trump will embolden and legitimize European nationalists and populists: think of the smiling face of Reform Party leader Nigel Farage or the red carpet welcome given to Prime Minister Orbán’s close friend in Budapest.
A winning Harris administration that embodies a strong commitment to diversity, feminism and the rule of law would help strengthen the firewall across Europe, but for the barriers to keep the far right out of power to work in the long term, mainstream parties need to be able to address the cost of living, house prices and energy prices that have driven many voters to populists on both sides of the Atlantic.
