August 25, 2024 9:51 AM
The US Open kicks off on Monday with both defending champion Coco Gauff and Novak Djokovic in the field, but with a field that also includes Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek, is one of them the favorite to win? We ask the experts.
Who will win the women's singles and why?
Bill Connelly: It's a strange mix. Many of the best players are battling slumps or just coming back from injury. Sure, not winning three tournaments in a row (though she still won 10 matches) is a tough time for Swiatek, but her devastating loss to Sabalenka in the Cincinnati semifinals makes you think Sabalenka might be the one to beat.
Sabalenka has dominated four Top 30 opponents without dropping a set, and not only did she beat Swiatek 6-3, 6-3, she dominated her opponents. She created 15 break points to Swiatek's six and broke five of Swiatek's nine serve games. Her serve wasn't 100% but it was more than enough.
This matchup is never going to be easy for Sabalenka, but unless Madison Keys (a potential fourth-round opponent) is 100% healthy, she may not face a tough test until the quarterfinals. Is this a favorable matchup for the most in-form player among the elite, with three semifinal appearances (and one final)? It seems like a good matchup.
Aryna Sabalenka is riding high in New York. Robert Prange/Getty Images
Tom Hamilton: Sabalenka. Sabalenka has been struggling with illness lately. She lost in the quarterfinals of the French Open to Mila Andreeva, was forced to withdraw from Wimbledon after injuring her shoulder in Berlin, and also withdrew from the Paris Olympics because she didn't want to return to clay. So it's full steam ahead for Sabalenka on hard courts, where she's looking to conquer New York after winning the Australian Open on the same courts earlier this year.
Darcy Main: I agree that Sabalenka is the absolute favorite at the moment, and for good reason. But I’m betting on Swiatek. Clearly disappointed with her bronze medal result in Paris and perhaps motivated by that and her semi-final loss to Sabalenka in Cincinnati, there’s no way she won’t try to avenge the past few months and maybe even win her sixth major title in the process. The road to the final will certainly be a challenge. She could face Andreeva in the fourth round, Pegula or Danielle Collins in the quarterfinals, and Jelena Rybakina or her famous nemesis Jelena Ostapenko (who has won all four of their previous matches) in the semifinals, but Swiatek is a sure bet. Needless to say, when Swiatek is focused and totally focused, others have to be wary. She’s nearly impossible to beat, and with a title in 2022, she knows exactly what it takes to lift the trophy.
Who will win the men's singles title and why?
Connelly: I think Djokovic will win again. He'll face Sinner, Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev, a matchup that's almost as good as the one he had at Wimbledon, when he got to the final on one knee. Djokovic will have more time to recover, and he'll play with more freedom and confidence after winning Olympic gold, just a few weeks after beating Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final.
It's as smooth a journey as Djokovic could hope for, and with Sinner not at 100% and Alcaraz on a short circuit in his only hard-court tune-up, Djokovic may be in the best form of any top player. Is a 25th Grand Slam title on the horizon?
Hamilton: Djokovic is in great position to win his 25th Grand Slam title. The draw was a great start for Djokovic. This could be perfect timing for a resurgent Djokovic, who won the men's singles title in Paris to become just the fifth player to win a Golden Slam in singles. He achieved one of the biggest goals of his career and now the mission to add to his men's singles Grand Slam wins awaits. Alcaraz has been a bit off lately and looked uncharacteristically upset in Cincinnati. Meanwhile, Sinner had some off-court distractions.
Djokovic has won the tournament four times and is set to lift the U.S. Open trophy again on September 8.
Jannik Sinner won his first major title at the Australian Open earlier this year. Jamie Squire/Getty Images
Main: This question is a lot harder to answer today than it was a few days ago. Watching Sinner's performance in Cincinnati, where he beat Andrey Rublev, Alexander Zverev and Francis Tiafoe in three consecutive days to win the U.S. Open, seemed a sure thing for him to win. But after the revelation that he tested positive for banned substances twice in March, he's now facing increased scrutiny and questions (and probably jeers and boos from the New York crowd) and I'm not sure how he'll handle it mentally.
If he can stay focused and play at the same level he did in Cincinnati, he could certainly win, but there's too much “what if” going on at this point to be sure. Instead, I'd like to see Alcaraz, who may be playing with a bit of spite after the Olympics and a (short) start to the hard-court season, thrive in the New York energy and have proven just how good he can be in a best-of-five environment and when a major title is on the line.
