In fantasy football drafts, knowing who to avoid is just as important as picking the right stars. Two or three wrong decisions can ruin your entire season. Here is my list of players to avoid, based on the current Yahoo ADPs for 10-team leagues.
Round 1: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson is a Jalen Hurts-like running back who is a ceiling threat for JT, who can take down opportunities near the goal line. Health concerns are real, too, with Taylor coming off two injury-plagued seasons in which he missed an average of 6.5 games.
That's not to say he won't be a beast as one of the best pure runners in the game, but rather that the price is too high given he's playing with a mobile quarterback, his modest career target rate (14.6%) and his recent missed games.
Round 2: Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
A great receiver who is wasting what's left of his prime with a lesser bridge QB in Gardner Minshew shouldn't be drafted in the second round. The Raiders are on pace to be a run-heavy offense, and Adams' performance last season makes him less valuable due to questionable QB play. It'll be good to have former Packers assistant Luke Getzy calling the plays. He'll still get a ton of targets, especially in the red zone. I'd target a running back or a receiver with more potential this early in the draft.
Round 3: Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Remember, overvaluation is a part of the game, and the Chiefs' decision to go on a wide receiver spree this offseason is a clear sign that Kansas City is looking to reduce its reliance on a soon-to-be 35-year-old and future Hall of Fame candidate.
Kelce still has the potential to be a top tight end, ranking second overall with an 83.6 receiving grade last year, according to PFF. The question is the cost. It would be better to acquire a player with higher potential, such as Drake London, Devon Achan or Deebo Samuel Sr., or start with an elite dual-threat QB.
Round 4: Ratchad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
White helped the Buccaneers win the league title last season with his sheer volume and dominance of the backfield. Though he was heavily targeted and rated as a plus receiving back, he was one of the least efficient rushers in football. The Buccaneers' offensive line remains questionable, and Tampa has former Rams OC Liam Cohen calling the plays. The Rams were in the bottom five in targeting backs last year, so that's not good for White's fantasy value.
Don't be surprised if fourth-round rookie Bucky Irving loses some luster. Instead of paying big money for White, look at guys like Jaylen Waddle, DJ Moore or DK Metcalf. Or, if you're after a running back, consider guys like James Cook, Joe Mixon or Kenneth Walker III. It's also worth noting that Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson would be much better options if they're available.
Round 5: Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans
While it's cool to acquire a potential third-stringer for a burgeoning offense, wouldn't it be better to invest in a WR1 or WR2 with a path to WR1 numbers, such as Michael Pittman Jr. and DeVonta Smith? Given the options available in this round, this is a great opportunity to acquire a high-end tight end or mobile QB like Anthony Richardson or Kyler Murray rather than an aging Diggs.
Despite his history as a top wide receiver in the fifth round of fantasy football drafts, Diggs is a player to avoid due to market inefficiencies, and he's likely trending downward in his early 30s, though you could call it a battle scar from a few years of not giving fantasy managers anything in the second half of the season.
Round 6: Malik Neighbors, WR, New York Giants
The talent is undeniable, and I'd love to see this exciting rookie hit his ADP, but it's hard to imagine anybody throwing the ball to Daniel Jones exceeding expectations. No wide receiver has had 800+ yards receiving since Jones was the quarterback for the New York Giants. It's the first time a receiver has accomplished the feat in five years, the last time being Odell Beckham Jr. in 2018.
Neighbors and Dalton Kinkaid have the most skill position upside among the veterans in this round (Aaron Jones, George Kittle, David Montgomery, Amari Cooper). Still, all of these options either have a track record of consistent fantasy success or their QBs are objectively not receiver killers. I like Neighbors, but don't send your fantasy team to the Gulag because of Jones.
Round 7: Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
The 31-year-old breakout player scored 21 touchdowns last season. Prior to that incredible run, the most Mostert had ever scored in a season was 10 in 2019. He's entering his 10th season in the league and while he doesn't have as much tread on the tires as his age would suggest, Devon Achain is a big threat to his workload.
Mostert had a 10th round ADP in 2023 leading the league. Now that he's three rounds up, that's just way too high. If he's an addition to your team, fine, but don't be the guy waiting in the dead zone to get him as your RB1. Give me a Rhamondre Stevenson or a wide receiver from around here like George Pickens, Zay Flowers, or Tee Higgins.
Round 8: Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears
I don't dislike his ADP, but like Stefon Diggs, Allen will be competing with two receivers for targets, threatening a floor that was once thought to be high. Allen got 39% of the wide receiver targets with the Chargers last season, so it's highly doubtful he'll get 150+ targets with that target share in Chicago.
Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams seems to be focusing on Rome Odunze on every improvisation play, and with DJ Moore throwing for over 1,300 yards with Justin Fields at QB, it's a very crowded field for a 32-year-old wide receiver. Allen has a chance, but his production will likely dip this year and he'll need to look to improve or address other needs.
Round 9: Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Purdy is overvalued in fantasy drafts until LT Trent Williams signs a new contract. Williams is the real safety for this offense, protecting Purdy's blind spot and wreaking havoc on defenses as one of the best run and pass blockers in the NFL.
The Niners are 3-6 without Williams since 2020 and have scored nearly five fewer points per game when he's off the field. Purdy's production has also declined significantly without Williams.
Brock Purdy and Trent Williams
Brock Purdy without Trent Williams
Yards per game
228.0
212.3
Touchdown rate (%)
7.6
3.3
QB Evaluation
114.0
87.9
Intercept rate (%)
2.0
6.6
TD:INT ratio
42:11
2:4
Purdy was QB6 last season and Williams only missed two games, so whether Williams' strike will spill over into the regular season is something to consider. Pass-catching players like Ruchy Rice, Calvin Ridley, Diontaie Johnson and Chris Godwin were selected in this round and offer much more reasonable value.
Round 10: Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
Chubb (rightly) ended up on the PUP list because he needs more time to recover from a gruesome knee injury he suffered in Week 2 last year, meaning he'll miss at least the first four weeks of the season, and while I wouldn't bet on him returning, it would be odd to see him get a later rounder over Jerome Ford given that he'll essentially play four games as the lead back.
Chubb is great when healthy, but drafting him here isn't going to help you win right now, and every week matters, so spend your late draft money on a guy who won't play for at least four weeks so you don't get yourself in a tight spot early on.
