After discussing the safest and most overrated players over the past few days, let’s talk about the most underrated players per round in a 10-team, 0.5 PPR format. With the biggest draft weekend of the year fast approaching, here is a list of players from rounds 1-10 who have become valuable players relative to their ADP on Yahoo.
Round 1: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
I don't think underrated really applies to first-round picks, but Sun God stands out. ASB's targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns have increased each of the past three seasons. Additionally, he allowed the fourth-most fantasy points among non-QBs last season. His ceiling may not be as high as the players picked before him (Breese Hall, Bijan Robinson, Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson), but he's productive.
Considering Chase's pending contract situation and a new but well-traveled QB in JJ, Amon Ra has the volume and strong offense to outperform his current ADP of 7.8 on Yahoo.
Round 2: Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Buy it at a low price.
People are overreacting because Williams added the title of punt returner. Sean McVay needs to realize he is the Tom Thibodeau of football. If you are trusted, you will be given all the work. That is why Williams finished as the 7th RB in just 12 games. He was one of the most used players in fantasy. Christian McCaffrey was the only RB who averaged more points than Williams last season.
I understand catching punts is risky for a guy who missed five games in his first year as a starting back, and the team drafted a quality backup in Blake Collum. Still, Williams has potential to be a first-round pick. If his ADP continues to drop to the mid-second round, take him.
Round 3: Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
The Packers were initially going to take Jacobs out because Devon Achan was getting too excited, but he's back. With injuries to the running backs piling up, Jacobs is essentially the last one left. AJ Dillion is out for the rest of the season, and rookie Marshawn Lloyd is battling a hip and hamstring injury he sustained during the preseason. The Packers have no choice but to get their money's worth.
Jacobs is coming off a down year in which he battled injuries and didn't come close to matching the rushing metrics that made him the league's rushing leader in 2022. That's likely why his ADP has dropped over the past week. And while he may not be a 2022 player anymore, being the clear No. 1 back in a prolific offensive line is great for fantasy production.
Round 4: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Waddle is underrated after a disappointing 2023 season where he finished as WR33. His recent calf issues have caused his ADP to drop a few notches, but the missed practice time appears to be a precaution.
He's entering his fourth season after three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. Touchdowns will come, but it's always good practice to pair a player with an explosive fantasy-friendly offensive line. Waddle fits the bill and is projected to be a high-end WR2 after a 24% target share last season.
Round 5: Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
I'm not normally a TE guy, but McBride is the ideal TE I want this season. He's cheaper in the draft than Travis Kelce or Sam LaPorta, and he has some serious chemistry with Kyler Murray. After Kyler Murray returned in Week 10 last season, McBride's fantasy points jumped to 14.9 per game, as Murray targeted the TE 34% of the time during that span (best in the NFL).
Marvin Harrison Jr. will certainly get his share of targets, but McBride has a path to the TE1 spot even with the rookie assigned to 1A/1B. As Yahoo Football analyst Nate Theis noted, the Cardinals have been very stable with their 13-man lineup, which only increases McBride's potential in this offense.
Round 6: David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions
Fantasy managers made the right call last season when they dropped Gibbs and drafted Montgomery, and it could be a smart move again this time. Despite Gibbs being injured and rumors circulating that the Lions will increase Gibbs' workload, Lunch Pile Monty could act as a bottom-up booster and provide an upside whenever Gibbs is sidelined.
The Lions have the best offensive line in football and he could score a lot of touchdowns. Cost-wise, he's a solid mid-round back who will play a key role early on but is likely to be sold by midseason (like he was last year).
Round 7: Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Surprisingly, there's another player who performed below expectations in 2023. Higgins is financially motivated to return to WR2 quality. I'd discount Higgins a bit in the “could be WR1 quality with injury” category with DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle.
Chase's contract issues should be resolved before the season starts, but if they aren't, Higgins is a more direct argument. His ADP may be dropping, but he's well connected to Joe Burrow. Blame injuries for a poor 2023 and grab value in 2024.
Round 8: Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
There's no need to force the issue at QB, especially in a 10-team format. Love is a reliable but underrated passer waiting to be drafted into your fantasy team. Last year was his breakout year, when he set a monumental bar by amassing over 4,400 total yards with 36 touchdowns (32 passing, four rushing).
He was QB5, but is still looking at CJ Stroud, Joe Burrow, and Dak Prescott. He has a ton of weapons at his disposal, and his schedule is going to be expensive to start the year. If you decide to wait for a QB, Love is a great option. Or you could take Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams a round or two later.
Round 9: Ruchy Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Rice is one of the few players on the list whose ADP has risen, as he has risen to the eighth round over the past seven days, primarily due to the fact that he is unlikely to be suspended in 2024 for offseason infractions.
I've already voiced my opinion about over-drafting Travis Kelce, but with Hollywood Brown struggling with a shoulder injury, it's no surprise to see Rice leading the Chiefs in targets and routes alongside Mahomes in the preseason. He's on the rise and coming out of underrated territory.
Round 10: Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
Odunze ran the most routes with Caleb Williams in the preseason, suggesting the Bears want to build trust with the rookie duo quickly. Keenan Allen is nursing a foot injury that will likely hinder him in the short term, but his absence will expand Odunze's role. It's a good choice, as Odunze is too talented to step on the field and not produce results right away.
