summary
There have never been so many flights between the US/Canada and Europe during the crucial third quarter. United Airlines is the largest carrier, with 13.5% of the nonstop market. JetBlue Airways has more than doubled its presence in Europe compared to last year, but from a low base.
For northern airlines, the third quarter (July-September) is crucial to boost profitability and increase financial reserves for the winter season. Against this backdrop, there have never been more flights between the US/Canada and Europe in the third quarter than this year. Passenger numbers and fare figures will be released at a later date, but it is clear that demand is solid, including in premium cabins.
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Record number of flights
Using Cirium data to examine all flights between the US/Canada and Europe, we find that there will be 65,646 direct departures (double the round trips) in Q3 2024. Spread out over 92 days, that works out to an average of 714 departures per day. The number of flights is 7.4% higher than the previous record set in Q3 2023. This equates to roughly 49 additional departures per day.
Smaller aircraft, including both wide- and narrow-body planes, have helped drive the growth: The average flight now has 273 seats, the lowest number in eight years.
Data source: Cirium. Illustration: James Pearson
Despite many airline changes, there is a significant increase in departures compared to pre-pandemic 2019. Comparing then to now, we can see that Atlantic Airways, Discover, Iberojet, JetBlue, NEOS, Norse Atlantic and PLAY now serve huge markets. In comparison, these airlines no longer offer the following:
Aeroflot (due to war and sanctions) Air Italy (defunct) Air New Zealand (previously operated fifth freedom flights between Auckland-Los Angeles-London Heathrow) Eurowings Norwegian (ended long-haul flights) Thomas Cook (defunct) TUI Fly Belgium TUI Fly Netherlands Ukraine International Airlines (due to war) XL Airways France (defunct)
Top 10 Airlines: Q3 2024
There are over 40 passenger airlines serving this market, with the top 10 being: United Airlines is number one with around 13.5% of departures. In 2019, Delta Air Lines was number one. At the time, Norwegian Air was number seven, but has since withdrawn from the market, with Turkish Airlines now in the top 10.
United Airlines operates an average of 97 daily departures and 75 routes to Europe. As expected, British Airways is the largest airline outside of North America, but is roughly half the size of United. During peak periods, it typically operates 51 daily departures and 32 US/Canada routes.
(This is an average, so half of the days have more departures and the other half have fewer departures.) Data source: Cirium. Illustration: James Pearson
US/Canadian airlines make up almost half of the market (48.1%), including Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, Air Canada, Air Transat, JetBlue Airways and WestJet. European airlines make up 51.2%, with fifth freedom airlines stopping in Europe – Air Tahiti Nui, Emirates and Singapore Airlines – accounting for 0.7%.
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Top 10 Winners
JetBlue saw the most growth year-over-year, adding 609 departures, the equivalent of more than six more flights per day. The airline doubled its presence in Europe in a year (+104%) and now operates 11 routes, making it the 18th largest airline. In contrast, around 15 airlines have slightly reduced their frequency or are remaining stable.
Data source: Cirium. Illustration: James Pearson
JetBlue has only just entered the European market in 2021, making its growth from a very low base look disproportionately strong. Yet even with the expansion, only 1 in 56 departures are served by JetBlue (1.6% of the market). When considering seats, available seat miles and passengers, JetBlue's low capacity fleet makes its presence even smaller.
What's even more interesting is what happens to JetBlue's European operations. The airline is currently facing huge challenges, which has led it to postpone the introduction of the A321XLR and cut many airports and routes without a stop in Europe in favor of winnable East Coast markets. What role will Europe play going forward?
