Analysts of the website e-petrol.pl said on Friday that next week, motorists may continue to see a slight decrease in fuel prices at gas stations. Reflex also notes that the drop in wholesale fuel prices has brought the first discounts at stations.
In the next week of December, analysts of e-petrol.pl predict that prices in the retail fuel market, with the exception of autogas, will further decrease. They estimate that drivers pay 5.98-6.09/l for 95-octane gasoline, 6.09-6.20/l for diesel oil, and 3.18-3.26/l for autogas.
“The market is approaching the equilibrium point”
Experts noted that motorists were already paying less for fuel last week, but the relief to their wallets was not as significant as they admitted. They reported that E10 gasoline was down 2 gros and diesel oil was down 1 gros. At the beginning of December, a liter of 95-octane gasoline costs PLN 6.07 on average, while diesel costs PLN 6.18/l. Drivers pay the same for gas as last week – PLN 3.19/l.
“After the sharp increase in fuel costs we saw at the end of November, motorists may be happy with the reduction at the start of the new month, even if only symbolic,” they said. Analysts noted that the rise in autogas prices has even slowed down, which, they say, gives hope that “the market is approaching the equilibrium point in the new reality, where there will be no LPG gas deliveries from Russia.” According to them, the decrease in the price of fuel depends on the favorable conditions in the main markets – mainly the strengthening of the zloty against the US dollar and the decrease in the price of crude oil below the level of 75 US dollars. Experts emphasized that discounts prevailed in the wholesale part of the fuel market last week, and gasoline and diesel fuel became cheaper in the online price lists of domestic manufacturers compared to last Friday. “One cubic meter of 95-octane gasoline (E10) costs PLN 4,610.80 on average today, which is PLN 38.20 cheaper than a week ago. Meanwhile, diesel oil is PLN 78.60 and its current price at the plant oil refining has become cheaper. The offer is “on average PLN 4,822.40 / cubic meter” – analysts said.
The main event
According to e-petrol.pl experts, the key event in shaping the mood of the oil market was the meeting of the Joint Monitoring Committee of Ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which determined the future. program to reduce production by union members. “Currently, they limit production to 2.2 million barrels per day, and the weakening of such a limit is delayed for at least several months. Therefore, the position on reducing the level of reduction is postponed until April 2025. no wonder.” – they said. “As Reuters wrote, the production recovery will include a monthly increase in production to 138,000 barrels per day, which is expected to end in September 2026.” – noticed. Analysts assessing the outlook for prices in the market noted that this week there is information from a law firm Haynes Boone LLC, according to which banks are preparing for a drop in oil prices below 60 USD. per barrel in the middle of the new president-elect Donald Trump's term. “Such a change will take place around 2027 and will be explained by the increase in production, including from shale mines in the US,” they noted. They noted that in this regard, Deloitte's forecasts for the industry estimate that the presidency of Donald Trump in the coming year will contribute to the further strengthening of the oil services sector in the USA. According to the company, the value of transactions in the oil services sector in the 9 months of this year reached 19.7 billion dollars and was the highest indicator since 2018,” said e-petrol.pl analysts.
First discounts
In turn, Refleks analysts note that the drop in the wholesale price of fuel caused the first reductions at the stations. According to them, next week the average retail price of a liter of gasoline will be PLN 6.08-6.12, diesel oil 6.16-6.20, and autogas PLN 3.20-3.25. On Friday, Refleks analysts presented a forecast indicating that the average retail price for the period 9-15 December will be as follows: unleaded gasoline 95 at the level of 6.08-6.12/l, unleaded gasoline 98 at the level of 6.83 PLN . -6.12/l, PLN 6.88/l, diesel fuel PLN 6.16-6.20 and autogas PLN 3.20-3.25/l. As they reported, on December 5, the average price of a liter of leaded petrol 95 was 6.12 pounds, 98 lead was 6.87 pounds, diesel was 6.19 pounds and autogas was 3.21 pounds. “Although fuel prices at some stations remained at last week's level, on average across the country we pay 2-3 grams less per liter of gasoline and diesel than last week, except for autogas, the price of which on average is 1 grsz has increased/l” – the analysts indicated. Refleks data shows that wholesale fuel prices at both Orlen and Aramco have fallen since the end of November this year. 1000 liters of fuel from 39 pounds to 82 pounds. Refleks analysts reported that on Friday morning, quotes for the series of February Brent oil contracts remained in the $72 range. per barrel and this level is similar to last week.
The OPEC+ meeting is in the spotlight
According to them, the main event of the week in the oil market was the meeting of OPEC+. “On December 5, OPEC+ made it clear that it does not intend to increase production. Voluntary production will be reduced to 2.2 million barrels per day, in which 8 countries will participate (Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman) will be kept until next April,” they said. They also mentioned that the mandatory production cut for the 18 OPEC+ countries, which was introduced in November 2022, in the amount of 3.6 million barrels per day, will be valid until the end of 2026. Kazakhstan and Iraq have until June 2026, until the end of 2026, to produce a small compensation for them. – analysts added. The next meeting of OPEC+ at the ministerial level – as they reported – is expected on May 28, 2025. “The OPEC+ decision was in line with market expectations. It is difficult for OPEC+ to increase production at the current level of oil prices, the rate of growth. Oil production in non-OPEC+ countries and before the seasonal period of crude oil consumption is usually the first quarter. the given year is considered,” said the analysts.
Main image source: Shutterstock
