According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), by 2050, one in four people in Asia will be over 60 years old, a threefold increase from 2010. China, the region's largest economy, is projected to lose 220 million working-age people between 2011 and 2050. Japan's population is expected to fall 16 percent by 2050, and the number of elderly people living alone is projected to increase by 47 percent.
This demographic shift will have far-reaching implications that require urgent action from policymakers, businesses, and citizens. As populations age, countries will face challenges such as rising health care costs, a shrinking workforce, and potential economic slowdown. These domestic challenges will affect foreign policy priorities, military capabilities, and regional power dynamics.
Japan, which is already grappling with the challenges of an ageing society, offers a glimpse into the future other Asian countries may face.
An aging population could constrain economic growth and shift the regional balance of power. China, long expected to overtake the United States as the world's largest economy, may face obstacles to its rise due to a shrinking workforce and rising social security costs. Alicia Garcia Herrero, senior research fellow at think tank Bruegel and chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, estimates that China's aging population could reduce its annual GDP growth rate by 1.36% from 2035 to 2050. As a result, China's economy will grow by just 1% by 2035.
A slowdown in the Chinese economy could have ripple effects across the region and beyond. Countries that have benefited from China's economic growth, such as goods exporters in Southeast Asia and the European Union, may need to reevaluate their growth strategies. Moreover, a financially constrained China may face challenges in financing its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative and in modernizing its military at the current pace. This could change the security dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region.
Japan, which is already grappling with the challenges of an ageing society, offers a glimpse into a future that other Asian countries may face. The phenomenon of “silver democracy,” in which the political influence of older voters leads to policies that favor the elderly at the expense of younger generations, could play out in other countries as well. These generational tensions could shape domestic politics and, ultimately, foreign policy priorities across Asia.
China may face hurdles to economic growth due to a shrinking workforce and rising social welfare costs (Zhang Kaiyv/Unsplash)
South Korea's rapidly aging population is forcing it to reassess its long-standing security posture. With fewer young people required for military service, the country may need to explore alternative defense strategies or rely more heavily on technological solutions. This change could have significant implications for the balance of power on the Korean Peninsula and the U.S. military presence in the region.
The demographic challenges facing Asia are not uniform. East Asian countries are rapidly aging, while parts of South and Southeast Asia still have relatively young populations. India, the world's most populous country, has an average age of just 28. India's young population could help it leverage its labor force more effectively and counter China's influence in the region.
As the center of global economic power continues to shift East, how Asia navigates its demographic challenges will have far-reaching implications.
Differences in age structures across Asia may lead to increased migration as aging countries try to address labor shortages. Japan, for example, has begun to relax its traditionally strict immigration policies to attract foreign workers. These migration patterns, driven by demographics, could reshape the cultural landscape and create new sources of tension or cooperation in the region.
Beyond the economic and security implications, Asia’s aging population will also have significant implications for soft power and cultural influence. Countries with younger populations may be in an advantageous position to drive technological innovation and set cultural trends. For example, the global popularity of Korean pop culture, known as “Hallyu,” may decline as South Korea’s population ages, potentially shifting the center of cultural influence within Asia.
The intersection of demographics and geopolitics in Asia will have global implications. As the center of global economic power continues to shift eastward, how Asia navigates its demographic challenges will have far-reaching implications. The United States in particular will need to reevaluate its strategic approach to the region, taking into account not only current power dynamics but also long-term demographic trends.
Climate change adds further complexities to this demographic shift: as extreme weather events become more frequent and severe, older populations may become especially vulnerable. This will increase demand for climate adaptation measures and may lead to new migration patterns within and beyond Asia.
Policy choices made today will play a key role in determining how countries adapt to these changes. Investing in education, health and innovation can help mitigate some of the challenges posed by an ageing population. Fostering social and cultural adaptations to support older workers and foster solidarity between generations is equally important.
