The so-called Islamic State (IS) militant group claimed responsibility for the knife attack in Solingen, with IS's newspaper Amaq saying it was carried out in “revenge against Muslims in Palestine and elsewhere” and that it targeted “Christian populations.”
“Extremists are using the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East as a means to gain momentum,” Thomas Mücke told DW. He works at the Violence Prevention Network (VPN), an organization that works to prevent extremism and de-radicalize violent criminals. Since October 7, 2023, when Hamas killed a number of Israeli civilians and Israel struck back in the Gaza Strip, Mücke has seen a “fourfold increase” in the number of attacks and attempted attacks in Western Europe compared to 2022.
The attack in Solingen was one of a series of Islamist attacks and attempted attacks across Europe in recent weeks, although it is not always clear whether ISIS was behind them.
On the same day as the Solingen attack, two car explosions occurred outside a synagogue in La Grande Motte in the south of France.
IS claims responsibility for Solingen knife attack
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Austrian authorities arrested two suspected ISIS sympathizers ahead of two concerts by American singer Taylor Swift scheduled for early August in Vienna. According to the Austrian State Security Service, the ringleader, a 19-year-old Austrian of North Macedonian descent, stated at the time of his arrest that he wanted to “kill himself and a lot of other people.” The concerts were cancelled.
In late May, an Afghan man living in Germany killed one police officer and seriously injured five others in Mannheim, targeting the chairman of Pax Europa, a campaign group critical of Islam. No direct links to ISIS have been confirmed in the case, but investigators have classified the attack as “religiously motivated.”
Following the attack, authorities in both Germany and France expressed serious concerns about ISIS violence at this summer's European soccer championships in Germany and the Paris Olympics, two major events that both took place peacefully, perhaps only thanks to stepped-up security measures and tougher border controls.
Authorities have recorded seven attacks and 21 attempted or planned attacks in Western Europe since Oct. 7, 2023. Mücke believes the increase is not surprising: “IS has targeted Western Europe with attacks, clearly intending to spread fear and insecurity and to divide societies in order to recruit even more people to their cause.”
Mannheim knife attack: police suspect Muslim motives
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The most serious attack claimed by IS in recent years was not in Western Europe, but a terrorist attack on a concert hall in Moscow in March 2024, which left more than 140 people dead. “IS fighters attacked a large Christian gathering, killing and wounding hundreds,” Amaq reported.
Radicalization via the Internet
The terrorist group rose to global prominence a decade ago when its then-leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, declared he wanted to establish a “caliphate” in the Middle East. IS reached the height of its power the following year, taking control of much of Syria and Iraq, with videos posted online of particularly brutal killings and beheadings.
“IS constantly calls for these attacks in their online propaganda,” Mucke said, “as well as detailed instructions on how to carry them out, including using a car to kill infidels in all sorts of locations.”
One particularly horrifying incident occurred in 2016 when an ISIS sympathizer drove a truck into a Berlin Christmas market, killing 12 people.
By 2019, many believed ISIS had been militarily defeated in the Middle East. ISIS attacks in Europe also subsided for a time, but this new wave of attacks appears to have marked a resurgence of religious extremism.
Mücke says perpetrators are getting younger — two-thirds of those arrested in Western Europe are teenagers — and the methods being used to reach them are also tailored to their age: “The internet plays a big role in radicalization, mobilization and recruitment.”
Berlin Christmas market raid
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A ray of hope: Early detection of radicalization
Experts are pessimistic about the prospects for improvement in the near future: the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East as of October 7, 2023 “will continue to influence terrorist trends for years to come.”
Many experts say knife-free zones, like those proposed by German Interior Minister Nancy Faser, would be of little use, as such bans are unlikely to deter would-be killers from using knives.
Still, Thomas Mücke of the Violence Prevention Network offers a ray of hope: “Since October 7, the number of calls to our counselling hotline has doubled. And it gives us the information we need to prevent radicalisation at a relatively early stage.”
The younger generation of perpetrators also poses an opportunity, he said. “Firstly, I expect that those who have been radicalised will undergo a major personality change, which will be noticed by those around them,” he said.
“And it's important that these changes are reported as soon as possible and that help and support is sought, because all extremist organizations are particularly trying to appeal to and recruit young people. They're the next generation. And this is where we have the greatest opportunity left to curb extremism and terrorism.”
This article was originally written in German.
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