Enjoy your Labor Day weekend everyone! We are very happy with our results in Week 0 (75%).
The early season is always a little weird. Modeling is only as good as the data that goes into it, so early season spreads are speculative and based on returning linemen, offensive strength, etc. Also, ex-post models where variance is explained are always better than ex-ante models where you have to guess.
But it's unfortunate how poor the data was for Week 0. Four games is really too few.
So we've decided to offer the first half of Labor Day for free. Here are the first 12-15 games of the weekend. Enjoy! As always, we've counted up the numbers on the remaining games on our companion site (including tonight's games), and like all good drug dealers, we're offering it to you for free. We're here to help you make a comeback.
We'll be watching six games today, and as you can probably tell, there's one we like, one we love, one underdog we should consider, one to avoid, a huge spread that's worth our time, and a must-win.
Vegas has your money, go get it.
A 10 foot pole and a stolen wallet won't do:
Penn State -9 vs West Virginia
I hate everything about this game. Morgantown is a nightmare, and I can't imagine this game hasn't been circled on the 'Eers calendar for the last few years. But is there a highlight win that Neal Brown can be proud of? I don't think there is one in his five-year tenure, much less a game this heavy. Early season stats suggest the 'Eers could cover, and Franklin has a terrible record against ranked teams. But WVU is unranked, this is a rivalry game, and the Lions have every talent advantage and the best QB in the B1G. With only WVU as their rival, it's possible that 'State will have a mediocre game. And Penn State has a new offensive scheme, too. But on paper, they have too many playmakers. This is really Franklin's turn… which means it's best to stay away.
Literally anything could happen. PSU -7.07
Our Favorites:
UTEP -27.5 at UNL
This is a game that the data says you should avoid (UNL -28.17). But the Miners are in transition with a new coach, they've already lost a lot of balls, lost a lot of veteran defenders, and are a poorly disciplined team. I don't know if Nebraska will get the scoreboard going, but I'm pretty sure UTEP will have a really hard time scoring in Lincoln (if they can score at all). I also don't think Lue and company are stupid enough to put all of their offense on Laioli early on. But Laioli needs as many live snaps as he can get, and I think he'll get them. All of the Nabors QBs have. Not one of them has even gotten a single FBS snap 2 deep. But they can and will run the ball, pass in the PA, play great defense, and make UTEP suffer. To ride or not to ride. I'm just doing the math. But we need to realize that it’s always the second year that the Rhule experience starts to pay dividends on the scoreboard and in the wallet.
It'll probably be an ugly game, around 35-3, but I'll bet on the Huskers. UNL -28.17
Who we love:
USC +4 vs LSU Allegiant
Tackle-option football, two dynamic offenses with new QBs, two highly paid coaches, lots of talent but shaky results (I didn’t say overpaid, I said overrated. Kelly at least has some cred). The Trojans don’t want to lose to Oregon, Arizona State or Tulane, which is superior to them in every way, at least in size and overall speed. They also don’t have Caleb Williams to save their soft offensive line. This is more of a “home” game for SC than LSU, but the talent and fast track could give LSU the advantage if the Tigers decide to play physical… and they will. Someday, someone’s going to have to explain Lincoln Riley to me. The guy must be the best bullshit artist in sports, who keeps selling the midfielders as elite and getting highly paid for it.
LSU….but not as bad as you'd think -6.28
#blessed Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
An outspoken underdog
There aren't many good underdog games this week, so I'll bet on this one, even though I usually prohibit myself from betting on teams with new coaches for at least a few weeks.
Boston College +16.5 at FSU
It's no secret that everyone on the ACC schedule started salivating at the sight of the Noles on both sides of the ball last week. FSU had already brought in a ton of new starters, so a regression was expected. But the talent was supposed to mitigate that somewhat. Did it? Nope. The Noles were just awfully weak and disorganized. Linebackers were running off plays, DBs were avoiding contact, and the defensive line was blowing off the ball. It was the same FSU we saw against Georgia. And one mediocre performance this year and FSU could pull off an upset against the most unexpected of opponents. Maybe someone like Bill O'Brien? That would be so funny. Just like this spread is rudely funny. And god bless Mike Norvell if they lose… it's not as unlikely as it sounded a week ago. If BC gets some good injury luck every once in a while, they could actually be a nasty team this season.
FSU will probably win, but BC will be able to stay competitive. -7.27
A huge spread worth noting
Akron +50 at OSU
Taking 50 points sounds totally insane, right? Hold on. OSU has covered the last four 40+ point games against the MAC, and all of them against Akron in the last 20 years. And what about Beard? He's 4-0 ATS against the MAC, with not a single spread under 36.5. Usually, a 50-point spread is a terrible choice historically — 3-6. But considering they started at 49, this is a much better play. That's the data we're using, too. And teams are 9-3 ATS when they start at 49, including the last time these two teams met three years ago (OSU -49, win by 52).
Also, after spending maybe $100 million or so on these transfers and freshmen and getting a taste of Michigan bragging rights from Ann Arbor, I have a hunch they'll thump the Zips. This is a very wide open year. If the Buckeyes are going to attack, 2024 is always a good time. This team should have the best DBs, best DLs, best RBs, best QB room, and best WRs in the country. One day these bullies might look that way against lesser teams with the most shameful, most shameful schedule in the country. But at least that works in our favor, right?
59-7 is hard to believe? Well, it's not. The bench is cleared, White plays fullback, Beard runs with soup cans. OSU -51.86
Mortal Rock
Georgia -13 vs. Clemson
Kirby is at his best on set pieces. Remember how furious Alabama was after 2010? They were outplaying teams and desperate to win a title knowing they missed out on it? Yes, I think that will be the case, at least early on. The matchup between Klubnick and this secondary has been disastrous and I just can't see the Tigers scoring enough runs to help him on the ground.
And yes, Georgia lost key players on the outside, but they have the best QB in the SEC back (for now) and will be going up against a Tigers defense that has three starters back.
This one screams “it's more like a 3 than a 1, especially in 'neutral' Atlanta.” Georgia has a much harder job than usual this season, so they can't afford to take their usual easy stretch with their schedule, and they'll start off strong on Saturday.
The Duggs are going to kick Clemson right out of the park and send them back to the ACC House of Worries.
UGA -20.69
Want to know more? I compile the data from (almost) all of the games every week on my companion site, (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out and good luck.
Only $5 a month…just like your mom.
questionnaire
Georgia -13 in Atlanta vs. Clemson?
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Don't doubt Dabo! #GodThing #Allin #Fambly (0 votes)
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Georgia has been underpowered, especially in what are essentially home games. (0 votes) Total 0 votes Vote now
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