Europe: Without additional adaptation measures, temperature-related deaths in Europe could increase by 13.5% per year by the end of the century, according to a new study.
According to the first pan-European assessment by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, even if current climate policies are successful in limiting global temperature rise to 3°C, 55,000 extra deaths from rising temperatures could occur.
The assessment also found disparities in temperature-related mortality across Europe: cold-related deaths are currently 2.5 times more common in the east than in the west, while heat-related deaths are more than six times more common in the south than in the north, but by 2100 they will be 9.3 times more common in the south than in the north.
It's worth noting that deaths from cold far outnumber deaths from heat: currently, the ratio is roughly 8.3 to 1. However, as the world warms, heat deaths are projected to increase dramatically, with this ratio predicted to rise to 2.6 to 1 with a 4°C increase in temperature.
The study examines current and future projections of excess mortality due to temperature change for 1,368 European regions in 30 countries, including the EU27, Norway, Switzerland and the UK, taking into account age-specific characteristics and local socio-economic and environmental vulnerability.
The study estimates that the total number of deaths currently (reference period 1991-2020) attributable to extreme heat and cold amounts to 407,000 per year across Europe. Around 363,500 people die per year from cold and 43,700 from extreme heat.
If temperatures rise by 3°C, heatstroke mortality is projected to triple from current levels. Heatstroke mortality will increase in all regions, but Southern Europe is expected to bear the greatest additional burden.
According to the study, under a 3°C temperature rise scenario, heatstroke deaths in Greece would rise from the current 1,730 to 4,767 per year, in France from 3,061 to 13,564, in Italy from 10,433 to 28,285 and in Spain from 4,414 to 20,194.
