2023 will be the hottest year globally and the second warmest on record in Europe.
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Extreme heat killed nearly 48,000 people in Europe last year, but without modern adaptation measures, heat-related deaths would have been 80 percent higher, according to a new study.
During the study period from 2014 to 2023, the number of deaths from heatstroke exceeded 60,000, with only 2022 seeing a higher figure than last year.
Of the estimated 47,690 deaths in 2023, 47,312 will occur between late May and early October, the hottest months of the year, with most occurring in southern European countries including Greece, Bulgaria, Italy, Spain, Cyprus and Portugal. The study, published Monday in Nature Medicine, also found that women and older people are disproportionately affected.
Heatstroke mortality in Europe has increased by about 30% over the past 20 years, and it is estimated that heatstroke deaths have increased in 94% of monitored European regions.
Life-threatening heat
Extreme heat affects human health, especially vulnerable populations such as the elderly and infirm, pregnant women, infants, outdoor workers and athletes.
The stress caused by heat on the human body interferes with normal daily activities and the body's ability to properly regulate its temperature. High humidity in general can also be life-threatening. Sweating helps cool the body, and humidity changes the way sweat evaporates. Inability to regulate one's temperature puts health at risk, leading to cardiovascular and respiratory complications, dehydration, heat stroke, high blood pressure, and poor sleep.
Studies have shown that adaptation measures such as early warning systems, heat planning, cooling centres and increased green space and shade in urban areas have prevented thousands of heat-related deaths and injuries in recent decades, but adaptation is still thought to be slow in many parts of the world compared to the rapid pace of climate change.
In cities like Hong Kong, where humidity levels often reach 100% in the summer, heatstroke prevention systems have been introduced to protect workers who work outdoors. But they aren't always effective. According to the Hong Kong Free Press, a local NGO recently called on the Hong Kong government to review heatstroke warning systems in workplaces after interviews with dozens of street sweepers and other outdoor workers revealed that 90% of workers experience fatigue, thirst, headaches, dizziness, elevated body temperature and nausea while on the job.
A street sweeper in Hong Kong. File photo by Kyle Lam/hongkongfp.com.
A warming earth
The past nine years have been the hottest on record. 2023 was the hottest year on record globally, with the global average temperature rising 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels, and Europe's second warmest year on record. The world's fastest warming continent is warming twice as fast as any other, with 11 months of above-average temperatures, the most “extreme heatstroke” days on record, and 7% more rainfall than average.
Number of days experiencing “very strong heat stress” (UTCI 38-46°C) in June, July, August and September 2023. Data source: ERA5-HEAT. Image: C3S/ECMWF.
The trend continues into 2024, with June becoming the 13th consecutive month with record temperatures. The heatwave that hit many Mediterranean countries last month caused temperatures to rise by 2.5°C to 3.3°C due to fossil fuels. In fact, such extreme temperatures would have been “virtually impossible” without human influence on the climate system, according to an analysis carried out by World Weather Attribution (WWA).
The increase in extreme heat is a direct result of global warming. Global warming is primarily caused by greenhouse gases, which trap heat in the atmosphere and increase the Earth's surface temperature. This leads to longer and hotter heat waves. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), further global warming is expected to increase the intensity, frequency, and duration of heat waves.
An October 2023 study warned that by the end of the century, even with less than 2°C of warming in some parts of the world, heat and humidity levels will reach lethal levels for hours, days, or even weeks, making it impossible to be outdoors.
More on the topic: What can heat waves tell us about climate change?
Featured image: Chris JL/Flickr.
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