AFP
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (right) shakes hands with Canadian Justin Trudeau ahead of the G20 summit in September 2023
India and Canada have expelled their top diplomats amid escalating tensions following the assassination of a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil, marking a new low in a historically cordial relationship.
Although past disagreements have strained relations, none have reached this level of open confrontation.
In 1974, India shocked the world by detonating a nuclear device, sparking outrage in Canada, which accused India of extracting plutonium from a Canadian reactor, a gift intended only for peaceful use.
Relations between the two countries have cooled considerably – Canada suspended its support for India's atomic energy program.
Yet neither expelled their top diplomats as they did Monday as the feud intensified following the assassination last year of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh leader based in Canada labeled terrorist by India.
The tit-for-tat expulsions follow Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's assertion that Canadian police were investigating allegations of direct involvement by Indian agents in the June 2023 killing.
Canadian police further accused Indian agents of being involved in “homicides, extortion and acts of violence” targeting Khalistan supporters advocating a separate Sikh homeland in India. Delhi has rejected the allegations, calling them “absurd”.
Some 770,000 Sikhs live in Canada, home to the largest Sikh diaspora outside the Indian state of Punjab. Sikh separatism – rooted in a bloody insurgency in India in the 1980s and early 1990s – continues to strain relations between the two countries. Canada has faced harsh criticism from Delhi for its failure to oppose the pro-Khalistan movement within its borders. Canada, India claims, has known about the existence of local Khalistan groups and has been monitoring them for years.
Reuters
A mural depicts the image of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, whom India has labeled a terrorist.
“This relationship has been on a downward trajectory for several years, but it has now hit rock bottom,” Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, a US think tank, told the BBC.
“Publicly filing extremely serious and detailed allegations, withdrawing high-level ambassadors and diplomats, issuing diplomatic statements in scathing language. This is uncharted territory, even for this troubled relationship.”
Other analysts agree that this moment marks a historic change.
“This represents a significant setback in Canada-India relations under the Trudeau government,” added Ryan Touhey, author of Conflicting Visions, Canada and India in the Cold War World.
A history professor at Saint-Jérôme University in Waterloo, Mr. Touhey notes that a key success of former Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government was to foster a “prolonged period of rapprochement” between Canada and the India, overcoming grievances linked to Khalistan and nuclear proliferation.
“Instead, the focus has been on the importance of trade and education ties and people-to-people connections given the large Indian diaspora in Canada. It is also worth noting that the issue of Khalistan seemed to have disappeared since the turn of the millennium. . Now everything suddenly broke out again.
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Sikh protesters demonstrated outside the Indian consulate in Toronto last year
Canada's allegations come at a time when Trudeau appears to be battling his country's ruling power, just a year before the election. A new poll by Ipsos reveals that only 28% of respondents think Trudeau deserves to be re-elected and only 26% would vote for the Liberals. India's foreign ministry, in bruising comments on Monday, attributed Canada's allegations to the Trudeau government's “political agenda that centers on vote bank politics.”
In 2016, Trudeau told reporters that he had more Sikhs – four – in his cabinet than Prime Minister Narendra Modi's in India. Sikhs exert considerable influence on Canadian politics, occupying 15 seats in the House of Commons – more than 4% – despite making up only about 2% of the population. Many of these seats are in key battlegrounds in national elections. In 2020, Trudeau expressed concern over farmers' protests in India, drawing strong criticism from Delhi.
“I think generally speaking this crisis will give the feeling that this is a Prime Minister who seems to be going from one debacle to the next. Specifically, within the Indo-Canadian community, this may well hurt more than ever,” says Mr. Touhey.
He explains that the Indian diaspora in Canada, once predominantly Punjabi and Sikh, has become more diverse and now includes significant numbers of Hindus and immigrants from southern India and the western state of Gujarat.
“They are proud of India's economic transformation since the 1990s and will not support Sikh separatism. Historically, the Liberals have enjoyed some political success thanks to the Sikh vote, particularly in British Columbia.”
However, Mr Touhey does not believe the crisis with India is linked to vote bank politics.
Instead, he thinks it's more about the Canadian government “repeatedly missing signals from Delhi regarding Indian concerns about pro-Khalistani elements in Canada.”
Getty Images
There are some 770,000 Sikhs living in Canada, which is home to the largest Sikh diaspora outside of Punjab.
“My gut feeling is that after decades of advocating for Canadian governments to address Indian concerns about pro-Khalistani elements in Canada, they feel like they are back to square one – except that this time you have a much more different government in Delhi that is prepared to act forcefully, good or bad, to contain perceived domestic threats,” says Mr. Touhey.
Mr. Kugelman echoes a similar sentiment.
“Much is at stake that explains the rapid deterioration of bilateral relations. This includes a fundamental disconnect: what India views, or projects, as a dangerous threat is seen by Canada as mere activism and dissent protected by freedom of expression. And neither wants to make concessions,” he says.
All may not be lost. The two countries have a long-standing relationship. Canada is home to one of the largest communities of Indian origin, with 1.3 million people, or about 4% of its population. India is a priority market for Canada, ranking as the 10th largest trading partner in 2022. India has also been Canada's top source of international students since 2018.
“On the one hand, the relationship is much broader than ever before thanks to the size of the diaspora, the diversity of that diaspora and the increase in bilateral trade and increased student exchanges – although the latter point has become a problematic question for the Trudeau government too,” said Mr. Touhey.
“So I think these people-to-people ties will be acceptable. At a high bilateral level, I don't think there's much the current Canadian government can do as it enters its final year with elections being held. later in fall 2025.”
But for now, things look pretty bad, experts say.
“Delhi is now making the same allegations against Canada that it regularly makes against Pakistan. He accuses Ottawa of harboring and sponsoring anti-Indian terrorists. But in recent times, the language used to make these allegations against Canada has been stronger than against Pakistan. And that means something,” Mr. Kugelman says.
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