Rising temperatures could pose “unprecedented challenges” to public health systems across Europe, especially during heatwaves, the authors said.
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Heatstroke deaths in Europe could triple by the end of the century unless ambitious adaptation measures are implemented across the continent, according to a new study examining risk patterns from climate change in parts of Europe.
The study found that given the climate policies currently in place, the world is on track for a 3° warming. In this scenario, an estimated 128,809 people could die in Europe by 2100, up from about 44,000 deaths in the 1991-2020 period. For the 1.5° and 2° warming targets of the Paris Agreement, the number of deaths from extreme heat increases to about 58,000 and 76,000, respectively.
Based on these findings, the authors conclude that public health systems across Europe could face “unprecedented challenges”, particularly during heatwaves.
The study, published Wednesday in the journal Lancet Public Health, confirmed that there are regional differences in temperature-related mortality. For example, Eastern Europe has about 2.5 times as many cold-related deaths as Western Europe. Although cold deaths exceed heat deaths in Europe, this ratio is expected to reverse as global warming progresses, the authors say. Meanwhile, southern European countries are much more susceptible to heat waves and therefore account for the largest share of heat-related deaths.
Of the 30 countries modelled, Italy had the highest number of heatstroke deaths between 1991 and 2020, with 10,433. In a 3°C warming scenario, that number more than doubles to around 28,285 in 2100. Germany comes in second, with 6,909 deaths between 1991 and 2020, estimated to reach 16,913 by the end of the century. Spain follows closely behind with 4,414 and 20,194 respectively.
The study found that Austria, France and Greece are likely to see a more than triple increase in heatstroke deaths between now and 2100, while Ireland could see an 18-fold increase.
Between 2000 and 2019, around 489,000 people died each year from extreme heat around the world. 45% of these deaths occurred in Asia, where the climate is most affected by weather disasters, and 36% in Europe, the fastest warming region in the world. Europe has already seen an increase in heat mortality of around 30% over the past two decades, coinciding with an increase in average temperatures.
In addition to regional variations, the authors warn that demographic changes will determine which countries are most affected. Although these factors are not taken into account, the study also highlights that factors such as ethnicity, gender and age can affect a person's vulnerability to heat.
More on the topic: Silent Killers: Understanding the Risks of Extreme Heat
The study found that city dwellers are more vulnerable than those living in rural areas: “In cities, the heat island effect is more pronounced at night, which may exacerbate the health effects of heat,” it said.
Scientists have found that compared to rural environments, modified surfaces in urban areas (such as dark pavements and roofs) affect the accumulation and transfer of both radiant and turbulent heat, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect.
Urban heat island effect. Image: Climate Central.
As well as negatively impacting quality of life and general activity levels in cities, excessive heat can put young and elderly people at risk of dehydration, heatstroke and death from heat stroke. Urban heat islands also increase electricity demand for air conditioning in summer, leading to increased sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and CO2 emissions.
Many cities are implementing strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change. These strategies aim to cool the environment by changing the way the built environment is planned and designed, incorporating vegetation, and reducing heat waste. Examples include planting more trees, installing green or cool roofs, and replacing regular pavement with cool pavement.
Many countries are also beginning to adapt to a warmer world by implementing strategies focused on protecting people from unmitigated heat, from setting up dedicated cooling centers to introducing heatstroke risk standards to protect outdoor workers.
“The significant increase in heatstroke deaths highlights the costs of delaying climate action,” the authors said, adding that planning and building codes are “levers for adaptation policy”.
“Areas with high rates of unemployment, poverty, economic change, immigration, and aging populations” are “hotspots for heatstroke deaths” and “need to focus further efforts,” the researchers said.
More on the topic: What can heat waves tell us about climate change?
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