Ukrainian forces' incursion into Russia's Kursk region this week was the largest since the start of the war, with around 1,000 soldiers and more than 20 tanks and other armoured vehicles charging across the border, threatening a key gas supply line from Russia to the European Union.
It may come as a surprise to many given the war in Ukraine, but European countries such as Austria, Hungary and Slovakia still buy gas from Russia, and all of it flows through the town of Suzha in Kursk.
Here's more on the risks to Europe, why European Union member states still rely on Russian gas, and how supplies could be affected by this latest development in the war.
Where in Russia did Ukraine launch its attack?
Kiev on Tuesday sent hundreds of troops from the Ukrainian border into the Kursk region, backed by armored vehicles, artillery and drones. By Thursday, Ukrainian forces had penetrated within 35 kilometers (21 miles) of Russia, reaching Kromskie Bykhi and Moriutyno, according to the Institute for War Studies, a U.S. think tank.
Caught by surprise, the Kremlin declared a state of emergency, evacuated thousands of residents and rushed reinforcements to the area, while influential pro-Russian military bloggers known as “Milibloggers” blamed “strategic miscalculation” by military leaders for endangering local residents in western Russia.
Clashes were reported on Friday near a nuclear power plant in the city of Kurchatov. The facility is strategically important because Ukrainian forces could use it as a source of influence or simply shut it down to deprive Russia of a vital source of electricity.
But the energy implications of the attack reach far beyond Russia: fighting was also reported as close to the town of Suzha, just 70 kilometers (40 miles) from Kurchatov, near a pipeline that carries Russian natural gas to the EU.
Why is Suja so important for gas supplies to Europe?
Suzha, located about 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the Ukrainian border, plays a key role in shipping natural gas to the EU.
An average of 42 million cubic meters (1.5 billion cubic feet) of Russian gas flows into Ukraine every day, and the town is home to a gas metering system that measures the supplies entering Europe.
Despite the war with Russia, Kiev has allowed gas supplies to continue uninterrupted through a Soviet-era gas pipeline as part of a $2 billion-a-year contract between state-run Naftogaz and Russia's Gazprom.
From Ukraine, the gas flows towards Slovakia, where it splits off, with one branch heading to the Czech Republic and the other to Austria.
The transit agreement expires in January and any disruptions to deliveries before then could send gas prices soaring, dealing a major blow to European consumers and industry.
What is the current situation with Sudzha?
On Friday, pro-Russian military bloggers reported heavy fighting on the outskirts of Suzha.
The town of Suzha after Ukrainian forces invaded Russia's Kursk region on August 7, 2024 (MIC Izvestia/IZ.RU via Reuters)
The Center for Information Resilience (CIR), a nonprofit open source analytical organization, said it had seen video footage of several Russian soldiers surrendering to Ukrainian soldiers near the entrance to the town's gas metering plant.
The CIR said it seemed “highly likely” that the factory had been affected by the intrusion, but added that it could not confirm the extent of the damage.
So far, the hostilities do not appear to have disrupted gas supplies to Europe.
Christoph Halsor, an analyst at Oslo-based Rystad Energy, told Al Jazeera that flows fell 5.8 percent to 37.25 million cubic meters (1.3 billion cubic feet) on Thursday and rose 3.2 percent to 38.5 million cubic meters (1.36 billion cubic feet) on Friday.
On Thursday, Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko said the shipping route was still functioning. The same day, Gazprom and Naftogaz both said they would continue operating normally.
Why does Europe still import Russian gas?
“In the short term, there are limited other options,” said Mike Coffin, head of oil, gas and mining research at Carbon Tracker, a London-based think tank.
“Western Europe can look to LNG (liquefied natural gas) and the North Sea, but in parts of central Europe those options are less open,” he told Al Jazeera.
According to Halsor, the share of Russian gas in Europe's total imports will more than halve, from 38% in 2021 to 15% in 2023.
However, due to the historic development of pipeline infrastructure, the countries still rely heavily on Russian gas transported through Ukraine, he said.
Austria's OMV signed a long-term supply contract with Gazprom in 2018 to supply more than 6 billion cubic meters (212 billion cubic feet) per year until 2040.
Hungary's MVM also has a supply contract for 4.5 billion cubic meters (160 billion cubic feet) per year until 2036, most of which will pass through Turkey via the TurkStream pipeline.
“Some European countries are still importing Russian gas in the hope of killing two birds with one stone and are not willing to pay the political cost of rushing to switch away from Russian gas,” said Jade McGlynn, a Ukraine expert and research fellow at King's College London.
Doing so could disrupt energy markets and trigger price hikes that would be highly unpopular with voters.
These countries have so far refused to provide air defense to protect Ukraine's energy infrastructure, thereby supporting a major source of revenue for Russia's military spending, she said.
In McGlynn's view, if supplies were to run out at this point in the all-out war, they “had only themselves to blame.”
Can Russia shut off the water supply?
Analysts say there is a risk that Gazprom could use the fighting as an excuse to cut gas supplies.
But with gas prices to Europe expected to average $320 per 1,000 cubic meters (35,300 cubic feet) in 2025, a halt to exports would result in annual losses of about $4.5 billion.
Hulser said “Russian commercial interests” made it unlikely that the oil flow would stop “unless physical damage occurs or the situation on the Ukrainian side changes.”
When Russian forces launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Naftogaz cut off supplies to its alternative branch in Sofranivka, near Luhansk Oblast in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine said at the time that Russian forces had begun diverting gas to Luhansk and its separatist region, Donetsk.
Following the closure of Sofranivka, the volume of Russian gas shipments passing through Ukraine to the EU fell by a quarter.
Will Europe need to find another way to get gas?
Whatever the outcome of the latest invasion, the contract between Naftogaz and Gazprom in its current form is set to expire at the end of this year.
Slovak gas supplier SPP has said a consortium of European gas buyers could take over gas at the Russia-Ukraine border after the contract expires, but it is unclear how this would work.
Another option would be for Gazprom to supply part of the gas via other routes, such as Turkstream, Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary, but the supply capacities via these routes are limited.
The EU has been trying to diversify its gas imports and has signed an agreement to double its imports of Azerbaijani gas to at least 20 billion cubic meters (706 billion cubic feet) per year by 2027, but the infrastructure and funding are not yet in place, according to an adviser to the Azerbaijani president quoted by Reuters.
In addition, if Azerbaijan's domestic consumption increases, spare capacity in Europe is likely to decrease.
Either way, the long-term goal should be to move away from fossil fuels, Carbon Tracker's Coffin said.
“To reduce its reliance on imported gas from Russia, Europe must continue to diversify its electricity generation and increase the share of non-fossil energy sources, while at the same time working to reduce its energy demand and upgrade its electricity grids,” he said.
“European countries should work together to reduce overall demand, rather than focusing only on their own needs.”
