The ouster of Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government is just the latest example of political instability in a South Asia region that is struggling to achieve stability, let alone democratization. This creates serious security and economic risks for India, a major player in the region.
Street clashes in Dhaka, Bangladesh. (Rajiv Dar/AP)
Brahma Chellaney, Project Syndicate
In Bangladesh, violent student-led, Islamist-backed protests toppled the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and have led to a surge in mob attacks targeting perceived supporters of her secular Awami League party, particularly the country's dwindling Hindu minority. With neighboring Myanmar engulfed in violence and the Pakistan-Afghanistan belt a hotbed of cross-border terrorism, political turmoil in Bangladesh two years after the toppling of Sri Lankan government is the last thing regional power India needs.
Achieving lasting political stability in South Asia requires the consolidation of democracy. But this will not be easy. Apart from India, the region is bound by long-standing authoritarian traditions and centralization of power. Hasina, for example, has become autocratic during her 15-plus years in office. In such circumstances, popular demands for democracy are far more likely to lead to violence and political unrest than a smooth transition of power.
As Hasina has shown, autocratic leaders do not always survive popular challenges to their rule. Consider the turmoil that engulfed Sri Lanka in 2022, when a severe economic crisis triggered mass protests against the dynastic and undemocratic regime of the Rajapaksa brothers. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, like Hasina, initially launched a violent crackdown, but the opposition proved too powerful. Like Hasina, Rajapaksa gave up and fled the country without formally stepping down. Sri Lankan protesters then occupied the presidential palace, much like Bangladeshi mobs ransacked Hasina's vast official residence.
But when a dictator is toppled, the military, not a democratic government, often takes over, even if the new government is ostensibly civilian. Bangladesh is no exception. The military has attempted at least 24 coups since the country's violent creation in 1971 and has held power for many years since assassinating Bangladesh's charismatic founding leader, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, in 1975.
Rahman's daughter, Hasina, had been prominent in keeping the military (and Islamists) in check, at least until last week when army commanders refused to continue to support her in cracking down on violent protesters. The military then helped her flee to India and set up a caretaker government of civilian “advisors” with little experience in domestic affairs.
To be sure, some South Asian countries are making some progress toward democracy, particularly in Bhutan, where democratization is accelerating thanks to a benevolent king who has championed a transition from a traditional monarchy to a parliamentary system. Earlier this year, the country's fourth general election brought the opposition to power.
But elections alone, even competitive ones, do not guarantee popular empowerment or adherence to the constitution, especially when the military holds decisive power. Consider Pakistan, which held elections earlier this year. The military-backed candidate, Shehbaz Sharif, was restored as prime minister, but his government will only last at the mercy of the army chief, the country's de facto ruler. Until the rule of law is firmly established and those who wield extraconstitutional power are clearly restrained, democratic gains will remain limited and vulnerable to reversal.
Myanmar learned this the hard way. The military has held real power since independence in 1948, but in 2015 it began to cede power to a new civilian government, and hope for a democratic future spread across the country. But just six years later, in February 2021, Myanmar staged a coup. This time, however, resistance has been fierce, and heavily armed rebel groups (some receiving “non-lethal assistance” from the United States) have succeeded in expanding their territory. In response, the military junta has stepped up punitive air and artillery bombardment.
The violence and worsening humanitarian crisis are fueling instability across Myanmar's borders. More than 32,000 ethnic Chins have already fled to the Indian state of Mizoram, and thousands more to the Indian state of Manipur, where their arrival has sparked violent ethnic conflict. And they are not alone: India is also home to millions of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants, whose numbers are set to grow as desperate Hindus flee Muslim attacks.
In terms of security risks, migration is just the beginning. Political turmoil in the Maldives, which began in 2012 when Islamist militants forced the resignation of the democratically elected president at gunpoint, has allowed China to gain a foothold in India's maritime backyard. This year, China signed a military pact with the Maldives and docked a huge oceanographic research vessel in the Maldives' port. Meanwhile, Islamist militants are expanding their grassroots base and establishing bases for ISIS and al-Qaida in the archipelago.
Mounting economic pressures are adding to security risks. Pakistan has repeatedly sought bailouts from the International Monetary Fund in recent years. The toppling of Hasina's government also threatens to spell tough times for Bangladesh's once booming economy, as the country's foreign exchange reserves rapidly dwindle. None of this is conducive to regional prosperity. As long as South Asian countries continue to be plagued by political instability, strong and sustainable economic growth will remain elusive.
The challenges of maintaining political stability and promoting democratization are also evident in Nepal, which has close cultural and historical ties with India. Last month, the country installed its 14th government in just 16 years. It is led by K.P. Sharma Oli, a pro-China Marxist-Leninist leader who has served as prime minister four times. Oli, who was jailed for years for acts of war against the state in the 1970s and 1980s, became Nepal's fifth prime minister in five years, replacing Pushpa Kamal Dahal, another former communist guerrilla.
All this puts India, the world's largest democracy and the geographic center of South Asia, in a difficult position as it continues to explore economic and strategic partnerships that extend well beyond its own troubled region, while minimizing the spillover effects of political and economic instability on its neighbors.
Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research and research fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin, is the author of nine books, including Water: Asia's New Battleground (Georgetown University Press, 2011), which won the Asia Society's Bernard Schwartz Book Prize in 2012.
© Project Syndicate, 2024.
